Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future: Modeling Social Unrest in Karachi, Pakistan

Social unrest represents a major challenge for policy makers around the globe, as it can quickly escalate from small scale disturbances to highly public protests, riots and even civil war. This research was motivated by a need to understand social instability and to unpack the comments made during a spring 2013 conference hosted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security and the U.S. Institute for Peace, where policymakers noted that models considering social instability are often not suitable for decision-making. This analysis shows that existing state level models of instability could be improved in spatial scale to the city level, even without significantly improved data access. Better data would make this analysis more complete and likely improve the quality of the model. Another challenge with incorporating modeling into decision-making is the need to understand uncertainty in a model. Policy makers are frequently tasked with making decisions without a clear outcome, so characterization of uncertainty is critical. This report describes the work and findings of the project. It took place in three phases: a literature review of social stability research, a “hindsight scan” that looked at historical data, and a “foresight scan” looking at future scenarios

Industry Self-Regulation as a Means to Promote Nonproliferation

Companies within numerous industries that have been “early adopters” of self-regulation concept, considering the environment and society alongside business issues, have realized several benefits and some competitive advantage while substantially improving their environmental performance. Given that proliferation prevention is also a public good, our premise is that the experience gained and lessons learned from the self-regulation initiative in other industries and more broadly in the arena of sustainable development provide a basis for examining the feasibility of developing self-regulation mechanisms applicable to industries involved with sensitive technologies (nuclear, radiological source, and other dual-use industries

Broadening Industry Governance to Include Nonproliferation

As industry is the first line of defense in detecting and thwarting illicit trade networks, the engagement of the private sector is critical to any government effort to strengthen existing mechanisms to protect goods and services throughout the supply chain. This study builds on previous PNNL work to continue to evaluate means for greater industry engagement to complement and strengthen existing governmental efforts to detect and stem the trade of illicit goods and to protect and secure goods that could be used in making a weapon of mass destruction. Specifically, the study evaluates the concept of Industry Self Regulation, defined as a systematic voluntary program undertaken by an industry or by individual companies to anticipate, implement, supplement, or substitute for regulatory requirements in a given field, generally through the adoption of best practices. Through a series of interviews with companies with a past history of non-compliance, trade associations and NGOs, the authors identify gaps in the existing regulatory infrastructure, drivers for a self regulation approach and the form such an approach might take, as well as obstacles to be overcome. The authors conclude that it is at the intersection of industry, government, and security that—through collaborative means—the effectiveness of the international nonproliferation system—can be most effectively strengthened to the mutual benefit of both government and the private sector. Industry has a critical stake in the success of this regime, and has the potential to act as an integrating force that brings together the existing mechanisms of the global nonproliferation regime: export controls, physical protection, and safeguards. The authors conclude that industry compliance is not enough; rather, nonproliferation must become a central tenant of a company’s corporate culture and be viewed as an integral component of corporate social responsibility (CSR)

Management Principles for Nonproliferation Organizations

This paper identifies business models and six management principles that can be applied by a nonproliferation organization to maximize the value and effectiveness of its products. The organizations responsible for reducing the nuclear proliferation threat have experienced a substantial growth in responsibility and visibility since the September 11 attacks. Since then, the international community has witnessed revelations of clandestine nuclear facilities, nuclear black markets, periodic nuclear tests, and a resurgence of interest by countries worldwide in developing nuclear capabilities. The security environment will likely continue to evolve in unexpected ways since most of the proliferation threats with which the world will be forced to contend remain unforeseen. To better prepare for and respond to this evolving security environment, many nonproliferation organizations are interested in finding new or better ways to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of their operations. Of course, all organizations, whether they are market driven or non-profit, must operate effectively and efficiently if they are to succeed. Indeed, as this study demonstrates, many of the management principles that this study recommends can help all organizations succeed. However, this study pays particular attention to nonproliferation organizations because of the mission they are responsible for fulfilling. Nonproliferation organizations, including nonproliferation programs that operate within a larger national security organization, are responsible for reducing the threat of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. These organizations have an enduring mandate from the public and the international community not to fail in the completion of their mission for failure could have detrimental impacts on international security, public health and the environment. Moreover, the public expects nonproliferation organizations and programs to fulfill their mission, even when resources are limited. They are expected to anticipate and react quickly to prevent a potential threat while staying accountable to their public stakeholders, many of whom remain unaware of the very threats the organization is trying to address. When budgets are flush, it is easy to believe that money will solve all problems; but during times of economic hardship, managers must rely on creative and cost-effective management approaches to implement their missions. Fortunately, managers of nonproliferation organizations can draw on a wealth of research on organizational design and culture to help them identify the management strategies most appropriate for them. Such research can help nonproliferation managers think about their own organizational structures and cultures and adapt accepted management principles to their unique organizational mission. This analytical process is not straight forward, as some managers may find themselves taking risks that others might not take, such as making ostensibly risky investments for the common good, or supporting creative thinking to help mission accomplishment. Some management principles that are relatively straightforward for other organizations may be difficult to envision and implement in a nonproliferation organization. Therefore, the goal of this study is to help nonproliferation managers identify management principles that can be implemented in a nonproliferation organization and, in the process, help maximize the value of the organization's products and effectiveness of its mission

A Radiological Survey Approach to use Prior to Decommissioning: Results from a Technology Scanning & Assessment Project Focused on the Chornobyl NPP

Results from a technology scanning and assessment project focused on the Chornobyl npp

What's in store: lessons from implementing CCS

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) has been identified as a key technology for mitigating carbon emissions. However, CCS is still very much at a developmental stage and the full-scale projects required to test the technology have proven difficult to implement, with lack of societal acceptance considered a key contributing factor to this delay. This paper reports on a study that explored practices for effective communication, engagement strategies and activities in the context of five detailed CCS project case studies. The cases studied included Barendrecht, The Netherlands; Carson, USA; FutureGen, USA; ZeroGen, Australia; and the CO2CRC Otway project, Australia. Comparative analysis of these cases identified a series of factors including: the extent to which key government and project team members are aligned; deployment of communications experts as part of the project team from the outset; consideration of the social context; the degree of flexibility in the project; and competition involving community self-selection. The research team designated these " critical success factors" that, when present, seemed to enhance the effectiveness of best practices in engagement and contribute to successful project deployment in some cases. The paper proposes that project developers need to consider ways to maximise these critical factors as part of their project planning and implementation process. It also discusses best practices in stakeholder communication and engagement activities applicable to CCS projects

Characterization and design of the FutureGen 2.0 carbon storage site

International audienc