Some Stylized Facts of Returns in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets in Peru

Some stylized facts for foreign exchange and stock market returns are explored using statistical methods. Formal statistics for testing presence of autocorrelation, asymmetry, and other deviations from normality are applied to these ?nancial returns. Dynamic correlations and di¤erent kernel estimations and approximations of the empirical distributions are also under scrutiny. Furthermore, dynamic analysis of mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis are also performed to evaluate time-varying properties in return distributions. Main results reveal di¤erent sources and types of non-normality in the return distributions in both markets. Left fat tails, excess kurtosis, return clustering and unconditional time-varying moments show important deviations from normal- ity. Identi?able volatility cycles in both forex and stock markets are associated to common macro ?nancial uncertainty events.Non-Normal Distributions, Stock Market Returns, Foreign Exchage, Market Returns

Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru

Following the approach of Mésonnier and Renne (2007), we estimate a Natural Rate of Interest (NRI) using quarterly Peruvian data for the period 1996:3 - 2008:3. The model has six equations and it is estimated using the Kalman filter with output gap and NRI as unobservable variables. Estimation results indicate a more stable NRI in period 2001:3 - 2008:3 than in period 1996:3 - 2001:2 and also more stable than the observed real interest rate. Real interest rate gap (difference between real and natural rates), which measures monetary policy stance, indicates a restrictive policy for 1996-2001 and for 2003. Results also suggest a real interest rate greater than NRI for 2002 and for 2004-2008.Interest rate, natural interest rate, Kalman filter, output gap, unobservable components

Foreign Exchange Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in Peru

Flexible exchange rate experience in Peru has been accompanied by frequent official interventions in the form of foreign exchange purchases or sales. Monetary authority pursues reducing excess volatility in the exchange rate through its direct intervention. However, in recent years, this intervention has concentrated in US dollars purchases, apparently signaling a bias towards defending a given exchange rate level (not necessarily fixed). For the period 1994 - 2007, this document assesses consistency of the empirical evidence with the goal of reducing exchange rate volatility. Thus, it uses univariate and multivariate time series models subject to stochastic shifts to study currency pressures. Results suggest consistency with the reduced-volatility goal. Nonetheless, in line with other studies, factors such as the foreign exchange gap with respect to its trend also induce foreign exchange intervention.Foreign Exchange Intervention, Exchange Rate Volatility, Markov-Switching Models.

ESTIMATION OF A TIME VARYING NATURAL INTEREST RATE FOR PERU

Following the approach of MÈsonnier and Renne (2007), we estimate a Natural Rate of Interest (NRI) using quarterly Peruvian data for the period 1996:3-2008:3. The model has six equations and it is estimated using the Kalman Ölter with output gap and NRI as unobservable variables. Estimation results indicate a more stable NRI in period 2001:3-2008:3 than in period 1996:3-2001:2 and also more stable than the observed real interest rate. Real interest rate gap (di§erence between real and natural rates), which measures monetary policy stance, indicates a restrictive policy for 1996-2001. Results also show a negative interest rate gap onwards, suggesting a less restrictive policy.Interest Rate / Natural Interest Rate / Kalman Filter / Output Gap / Unobserved Components.

Some stylized facts of returns in the foreign exchange and stock markets in Peru

Some stylized facts for foreign exchange and stock market returns are explored using statistical methods. Formal statistics for testing presence of autocorrelation, asymmetry, and other deviations from normality is applied to these financial returns. Dynamic correlations and different kernel estimations and approximations of the empirical distributions are also under scrutiny. Furthermore, dynamic analysis of mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis are also performed to evaluate time-varying properties in return distributions. Main results reveal different sources and types of non-normality in the return distributions in both markets. Left fat tails, excess kurtosis, return clustering and unconditional time-varying moments show important deviations from normality. Identifiable volatility cycles in both forex and stock markets are associated to common macro financial uncertainty events.Non-Normal Distributions, Stock Market Returns, Foreign Exchange Market Returns.

Depreciation expectations and interest rate differentials: Are there regime switches? The Peruvian case

This paper presents an econometric assessment of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) for Peruvian financial instruments and documents the main empirical regularities in this relationship. The information contents of interest rate differentials about depreciation expectations are assessed under different econometric specifications. In the case of Peru, linear approximations along with periods of relatively high expected inflation suggest that UIP would hold on average over the short term (contrary to international evidence). Alternatively, with price-stability periods (as in a fully-fledged inflation targeting scheme), linear representations show opposite evidence to UIP. When both scenarios are included over a given sample size, regime switching models distinguish between periods consistent with UIP and those periods in which UIP is not so relevant. In particular, Markov switching models signal the importance of foreign exchange volatility to assess UIP validity.paridad descubierta de tasas de interés, diferenciales de tasas de interés, tipo de cambio, modelos de regímenes cambiantes Markov

Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)

This paper evaluates the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a context of monetary policy regime shifts for the Peruvian economy. We use a model of unobserved components subject to regime shifts to evaluate this link. We verify that periods of high(low) inflation me an were accompanied by periods of high(low) both short -and long- run uncertainty in inflation. Interestingly, unlike developed countries, short run uncertainty is important. These relationaships are consistent with the presence of three clearly differentiated regimes. First, a period of price stability, then a high -inflation high-volatility regime, and finally a hyperinflation period. We also verify that during a recent period of price stability, both permanent and transitory shocks to inflation have decreased in volatility. Finally, we find evidence that inflation and money growth rates share similar regime shifts.inflation dynamics, monetary policy, Markov-switching models, unobserved component models, sthocastic trends

Swaps de incumplimiento de crédito (Credit Default Swaps)

Describe la operatividad y valorización de estos swaps. También analiza las estrategias de inversión y el uso de este tipo de instrumento como indicador de riesgo país.

Volatilidad financiera y rentabilidades cambiarias y bursátiles en el Perú

Discuten los resultados de una evaluación dinámica de las rentabilidades en los mercados cambiarios y bursátiles.

Markov switching modelling of interest rate pass-through

The first paper, "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? The case of Argentina", analyses the dynamic relationship between a money market (interbank) rate and different short-term lending rates by measuring their passthrough. Neither linear single-equation modelling nor linear multi-equation systems capture efficiently this relationship. Several financial crises alter the speed and degree of response to interbank rate shocks. Hence, a Markov switching VAR model shows the pass-through increases considerably for all market interest rates in a high-volatility scenario. The model identifies correctly the periods in which regime shifts occur, and associates them to financial crises. The second paper, "Modelling interest rate pass-through with endogenous switching regimes in Argentina", extends the scope of the Markov switching modelling by including time-varying transition probabilities. Interest rate spreads are used as leading indicators. The model allows devaluation expectations and country risks, (measured by rate spreads) to signal regime switching. Estimation results suggest that the passthrough tends to overshoot with financial instability, but to decrease if that condition is sufficiently large and long-lived. Likewise, results show a quite heterogeneous credit market, with a highly efficient transmission mechanism in the corporate segment, but considerably less in the consumer segment. The final paper, "Regime switching in interest rate pass-through and dynamic bank modelling with risks", builds a theoretical model of dynamic bank optimisation, which provides rationale to a regime-switching behaviour in the interest rate pass-through. It is shown that a regime-switching interbank rate induces a nonlinear behaviour in lending and deposit rates and (by further introducing interbank-alike regime-switching risk premiums) in the pass-through. Thus, the pass-through process is consistent with a nonlinear behaviour even if there are no asymmetric adjustment costs in the response to interbank rate shocks. An empirical application to France and Germany provide results that support these conclusions.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceUniversity of Warwick. Dept. of EconomicsBanco Central de Reserva del PerúGBUnited Kingdo