Some Stylized Facts of Returns in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets in Peru

Some stylized facts for foreign exchange and stock market returns are explored using statistical methods. Formal statistics for testing presence of autocorrelation, asymmetry, and other deviations from normality are applied to these ?nancial returns. Dynamic correlations and di¤erent kernel estimations and approximations of the empirical distributions are also under scrutiny. Furthermore, dynamic analysis of mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis are also performed to evaluate time-varying properties in return distributions. Main results reveal di¤erent sources and types of non-normality in the return distributions in both markets. Left fat tails, excess kurtosis, return clustering and unconditional time-varying moments show important deviations from normal- ity. Identi?able volatility cycles in both forex and stock markets are associated to common macro ?nancial uncertainty events.Non-Normal Distributions, Stock Market Returns, Foreign Exchage, Market Returns

Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru

Following the approach of Mésonnier and Renne (2007), we estimate a Natural Rate of Interest (NRI) using quarterly Peruvian data for the period 1996:3 - 2008:3. The model has six equations and it is estimated using the Kalman filter with output gap and NRI as unobservable variables. Estimation results indicate a more stable NRI in period 2001:3 - 2008:3 than in period 1996:3 - 2001:2 and also more stable than the observed real interest rate. Real interest rate gap (difference between real and natural rates), which measures monetary policy stance, indicates a restrictive policy for 1996-2001 and for 2003. Results also suggest a real interest rate greater than NRI for 2002 and for 2004-2008.Interest rate, natural interest rate, Kalman filter, output gap, unobservable components

Foreign Exchange Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in Peru

Flexible exchange rate experience in Peru has been accompanied by frequent official interventions in the form of foreign exchange purchases or sales. Monetary authority pursues reducing excess volatility in the exchange rate through its direct intervention. However, in recent years, this intervention has concentrated in US dollars purchases, apparently signaling a bias towards defending a given exchange rate level (not necessarily fixed). For the period 1994 - 2007, this document assesses consistency of the empirical evidence with the goal of reducing exchange rate volatility. Thus, it uses univariate and multivariate time series models subject to stochastic shifts to study currency pressures. Results suggest consistency with the reduced-volatility goal. Nonetheless, in line with other studies, factors such as the foreign exchange gap with respect to its trend also induce foreign exchange intervention.Foreign Exchange Intervention, Exchange Rate Volatility, Markov-Switching Models.

ESTIMATION OF A TIME VARYING NATURAL INTEREST RATE FOR PERU

Following the approach of MÈsonnier and Renne (2007), we estimate a Natural Rate of Interest (NRI) using quarterly Peruvian data for the period 1996:3-2008:3. The model has six equations and it is estimated using the Kalman Ölter with output gap and NRI as unobservable variables. Estimation results indicate a more stable NRI in period 2001:3-2008:3 than in period 1996:3-2001:2 and also more stable than the observed real interest rate. Real interest rate gap (di§erence between real and natural rates), which measures monetary policy stance, indicates a restrictive policy for 1996-2001. Results also show a negative interest rate gap onwards, suggesting a less restrictive policy.Interest Rate / Natural Interest Rate / Kalman Filter / Output Gap / Unobserved Components.

Some stylized facts of returns in the foreign exchange and stock markets in Peru

Some stylized facts for foreign exchange and stock market returns are explored using statistical methods. Formal statistics for testing presence of autocorrelation, asymmetry, and other deviations from normality is applied to these financial returns. Dynamic correlations and different kernel estimations and approximations of the empirical distributions are also under scrutiny. Furthermore, dynamic analysis of mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis are also performed to evaluate time-varying properties in return distributions. Main results reveal different sources and types of non-normality in the return distributions in both markets. Left fat tails, excess kurtosis, return clustering and unconditional time-varying moments show important deviations from normality. Identifiable volatility cycles in both forex and stock markets are associated to common macro financial uncertainty events.Non-Normal Distributions, Stock Market Returns, Foreign Exchange Market Returns.

Defining leadership that fosters creativity in virtual work – Descriptive interpretative concept analysis

Tapping common creativity of people inside and outside organizational, geo- graphical and technological boundaries is a big challenge for leaders in virtual work to add value in value chains. The object of this article is – through the descriptive interpretative concept analysis and inductive epistemological approach – to define leadership that fosters creativity in virtual work. The outcome is a map of mutual connections of the concepts of virtuality, creativity and transformational, emotional and complexity leadership. The findings suggest that effective leadership in virtual work requires broad understanding of virtuality and creativity and spaces and relations between people. The analysis indicates benefits from integral theoretical pluralism, i.e. from utilizing several theoretical approaches in developing leadership theory for virtuality at work, and offers thoughts for creating new concepts and developing leadership towards sustainability in organizations.Virtuaalityön johtajilla on iso haaste valjastaa organisaatioiden sisällä ja organisaatio-, maantieteellisten ja teknologisten rajojen ulkopuolella toimivien ihmisten yhteinen luovuus arvon tuottamiseen arvo- ketjuissa. Tämän artikkelin tarkoituksena on kuvailevan tulkitsevan käsiteanalyysin ja induktiivisen epistemologisen lähestymistavan avulla määritellä johtaminen, joka edistää luovuutta virtuaalityössä. Analyysin tuloksena on kartta virtuaalisuuden, luovuuden, transformaalisen johtamisen, tunneälyjohtamisen ja kompleksisen johtamisen käsitteiden keskinäisistä yhteyksistä. Tulosten perusteella luovaa virtuaalista yhteistyötä edistävässä johtamisessa virtuaalisuus, luovuus ja ihmisten väliset tilat ja suhteet on ymmärrettävä laajasti. Analyysi antaa viitteitä myös teoreettisesta pluralismista eli usean teoreettisen viitekehyksen käytön hyödyllisyydestä virtuaalityön johtamisen teorian kehittämisessä sekä tarjoaa ajatuksia uusien käsitteiden luomiseen ja organisaatioiden kestä- vän kehityksen johtamisen kehittämisee

New species of Orthocentrinae (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) from Finland

Five new species of ichneumonids of the subfamily Orthocentrinae s. l. were discovered in Finnish collections. A new genus is proposed for one new species from Southern Finland, Fennomacrus koponeni gen. et sp. n. Its relationships and systematic position are briefly discussed. Four other new species, Plectiscidea aquilonia sp. n., P. fuscifemur sp. n., P. helleni sp. n. and Eusterinx (Holomeristus) fennoscandica sp. n., from Fennoscandia are also described. The hitherto unknown female of Helictes fabularis Rossem is described as well

Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)

This paper evaluates the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a context of monetary policy regime shifts for the Peruvian economy. We use a model of unobserved components subject to regime shifts to evaluate this link. We verify that periods of high(low) inflation me an were accompanied by periods of high(low) both short -and long- run uncertainty in inflation. Interestingly, unlike developed countries, short run uncertainty is important. These relationaships are consistent with the presence of three clearly differentiated regimes. First, a period of price stability, then a high -inflation high-volatility regime, and finally a hyperinflation period. We also verify that during a recent period of price stability, both permanent and transitory shocks to inflation have decreased in volatility. Finally, we find evidence that inflation and money growth rates share similar regime shifts.inflation dynamics, monetary policy, Markov-switching models, unobserved component models, sthocastic trends

New findings of Parnassius mnemosyne Linnaeus (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) in Russian Karelia

Entomologica Fennica. 8 January 199

Depreciation expectations and interest rate differentials: Are there regime switches? The Peruvian case

This paper presents an econometric assessment of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) for Peruvian financial instruments and documents the main empirical regularities in this relationship. The information contents of interest rate differentials about depreciation expectations are assessed under different econometric specifications. In the case of Peru, linear approximations along with periods of relatively high expected inflation suggest that UIP would hold on average over the short term (contrary to international evidence). Alternatively, with price-stability periods (as in a fully-fledged inflation targeting scheme), linear representations show opposite evidence to UIP. When both scenarios are included over a given sample size, regime switching models distinguish between periods consistent with UIP and those periods in which UIP is not so relevant. In particular, Markov switching models signal the importance of foreign exchange volatility to assess UIP validity.paridad descubierta de tasas de interés, diferenciales de tasas de interés, tipo de cambio, modelos de regímenes cambiantes Markov