Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities

Background: Remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have potential to be severely impacted by COVID-19, with multiple factors predisposing to increased transmission and disease severity. Our modelling aims to inform optimal public health responses. Methods: An individual-based simulation model represented SARS-CoV2 transmission in communities ranging from 100 to 3500 people, comprised of large, interconnected households. A range of strategies for case finding, quarantining of contacts, testing, and lockdown were examined, following the silent introduction of a case. Results: Multiple secondary infections are likely present by the time the first case is identified. Quarantine of close contacts, defined by extended household membership, can reduce peak infection prevalence from 60 to 70% to around 10%, but subsequent waves may occur when community mixing resumes. Exit testing significantly reduces ongoing transmission. Concurrent lockdown of non-quarantined households for 14 days is highly effective for epidemic control and reduces overall testing requirements; peak prevalence of the initial outbreak can be constrained to less than 5%, and the final community attack rate to less than 10% in modelled scenarios. Lockdown also mitigates the effect of a delay in the initial response. Compliance with lockdown must be at least 80–90%, however, or epidemic control will be lost. Conclusions: A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will spread rapidly in remote communities. Prompt case detection with quarantining of extended-household contacts and a 14 day lockdown for all other residents, combined with exit testing for all, is the most effective strategy for rapid containment. Compliance is crucial, underscoring the need for community supported, culturally sensitive responses

Treatment of Late Stage Disease in a Model of Arenaviral Hemorrhagic Fever: T-705 Efficacy and Reduced Toxicity Suggests an Alternative to Ribavirin

A growing number of arenaviruses are known to cause viral hemorrhagic fever (HF), a severe and life-threatening syndrome characterized by fever, malaise, and increased vascular permeability. Ribavirin, the only licensed antiviral indicated for the treatment of certain arenaviral HFs, has had mixed success and significant toxicity. Since severe arenaviral infections initially do not present with distinguishing symptoms and are difficult to clinically diagnose at early stages, it is of utmost importance to identify antiviral therapies effective at later stages of infection. We have previously reported that T-705, a substituted pyrazine derivative currently under development as an anti-influenza drug, is highly active in hamsters infected with Pichinde virus when the drug is administered orally early during the course of infection. Here we demonstrate that T-705 offers significant protection against this lethal arenaviral infection in hamsters when treatment is begun after the animals are ill and the day before the animals begin to succumb to disease. Importantly, this coincides with the time when peak viral loads are present in most organs and considerable tissue damage is evident. We also show that T-705 is as effective as, and less toxic than, ribavirin, as infected T-705-treated hamsters on average maintain their weight better and recover more rapidly than animals treated with ribavirin. Further, there was no added benefit to combination therapy with T-705 and ribavirin. Finally, pharmacokinetic data indicate that plasma T-705 levels following oral administration are markedly reduced during the latter stages of disease, and may contribute to the reduced efficacy seen when treatment is withheld until day 7 of infection. Our findings support further pre-clinical development of T-705 for the treatment of severe arenaviral infections

Use of Recombinant Adenovirus Vectored Consensus IFN-α to Avert Severe Arenavirus Infection

Several arenaviruses can cause viral hemorrhagic fever, a severe disease with case-fatality rates in hospitalized individuals ranging from 15-30%. Because of limited prophylaxis and treatment options, new medical countermeasures are needed for these viruses classified by the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as top priority biodefense Category A pathogens. Recombinant consensus interferon alpha (cIFN-α) is a licensed protein with broad clinical appeal. However, while cIFN-α has great therapeutic value, its utility for biodefense applications is hindered by its short in vivo half-life, mode and frequency of administration, and costly production. To address these limitations, we describe the use of DEF201, a replication-deficient adenovirus vector that drives the expression of cIFN-α, for pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis of acute arenaviral infection modeled in hamsters. Intranasal administration of DEF201 24 h prior to challenge with Pichindé virus (PICV) was highly effective at protecting animals from mortality and preventing viral replication and liver-associated disease. A significant protective effect was still observed with a single dosing of DEF201 given two weeks prior to PICV challenge. DEF201 was also efficacious when administered as a treatment 24 to 48 h post-virus exposure. The protective effect of DEF201 was largely attributed to the expression of cIFN-α, as dosing with a control empty vector adenovirus did not protect hamsters from lethal PICV challenge. Effective countermeasures that are highly stable, easily administered, and elicit long lasting protective immunity are much needed for arena and other viral infections. The DEF201 technology has the potential to address all of these issues and may serve as a broad-spectrum antiviral to enhance host defense against a number of viral pathogens

Development of a New Tacaribe Arenavirus Infection Model and Its Use to Explore Antiviral Activity of a Novel Aristeromycin Analog

Background A growing number of arenaviruses can cause a devastating viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) syndrome. They pose a public health threat as emerging viruses and because of their potential use as bioterror agents. All of the highly pathogenic New World arenaviruses (NWA) phylogenetically segregate into clade B and require maximum biosafety containment facilities for their study. Tacaribe virus (TCRV) is a nonpathogenic member of clade B that is closely related to the VHF arenaviruses at the amino acid level. Despite this relatedness, TCRV lacks the ability to antagonize the host interferon (IFN) response, which likely contributes to its inability to cause disease in animals other than newborn mice. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we describe a new mouse model based on TCRV challenge of AG129 IFN-α/β and -γ receptor-deficient mice. Titration of the virus by intraperitoneal (i.p.) challenge of AG129 mice resulted in an LD50 of ∼100 fifty percent cell culture infectious doses. Virus replication was evident in the serum, liver, lung, spleen, and brain 4–8 days after inoculation. MY-24, an aristeromycin derivative active against TCRV in cell culture at 0.9 µM, administered i.p. once daily for 7 days, offered highly significant (P\u3c0.001) protection against mortality in the AG129 mouse TCRV infection model, without appreciably reducing viral burden. In contrast, in a hamster model of arenaviral hemorrhagic fever based on challenge with clade A Pichinde arenavirus, MY-24 did not offer significant protection against mortality. Conclusions/Significance MY-24 is believed to act as an inhibitor of S-adenosyl-L-homocysteine hydrolase, but our findings suggest that it may ameliorate disease by blunting the effects of the host response that play a role in disease pathogenesis. The new AG129 mouse TCRV infection model provides a safe and cost-effective means to conduct early-stage pre-clinical evaluations of candidate antiviral therapies that target clade B arenaviruses

Assessing changes in vascular permeability in a hamster model of viral hemorrhagic fever

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A number of RNA viruses cause viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF), in which proinflammatory mediators released from infected cells induce increased permeability of the endothelial lining of blood vessels, leading to loss of plasma volume, hypotension, multi-organ failure, shock and death. The optimal treatment of VHF should therefore include both the use of antiviral drugs to inhibit viral replication and measures to prevent or correct changes in vascular function. Although rodent models have been used to evaluate treatments for increased vascular permeability (VP) in bacterial sepsis, such studies have not been performed for VHF.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here, we use an established model of Pichinde virus infection of hamsters to demonstrate how changes in VP can be detected by intravenous infusion of Evans blue dye (EBD), and compare those measurements to changes in hematocrit, serum albumin concentration and serum levels of proinflammatory mediators. We show that EBD injected into sick animals in the late stage of infection is rapidly sequestered in the viscera, while in healthy animals it remains within the plasma, causing the skin to turn a marked blue color. This test could be used in live animals to detect increased VP and to assess the ability of antiviral drugs and vasoactive compounds to prevent its onset. Finally, we describe a multiplexed assay to measure levels of serum factors during the course of Pichinde arenavirus infection and demonstrate that viremia and subsequent increase in white blood cell counts precede the elaboration of inflammatory mediators, which is followed by increased VP and death.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This level of model characterization is essential to the evaluation of novel interventions designed to control the effects of virus-induced hypercytokinemia on host vascular function in VHF, which could lead to improved survival.</p

JKA97, a Novel Benzylidene Analog of Harmine, Exerts Anti-Cancer Effects by Inducing G1 Arrest, Apoptosis, and p53-Independent Up-Regulation of p21

JKA97, a benzylidene analog of harmine, has been found to be a promising drug candidate for human cancer therapy, although the underlying molecular mechanisms have not been fully demonstrated. In this study, we evaluated the effects of JKA97 on human breast cancer cells in vitro and in vivo. JKA97 inhibited the growth and proliferation of MCF7 (p53 wild-type), MCF7 (p53 knockdown), and MDA-MB-468 (p53 mutant) cells in a dose-dependent manner. Treatment with JKA97 arrested breast cancer cells in G1 phase and induced apoptosis. JKA97 also significantly suppressed the growth of MCF7 and MDA-MB-468 xenograft tumors. It regulated the expression levels of G1 phase regulators, such as p21, p27, cyclinE, and cylinD1. JKA97 activated p21 transcription, independent of p53, but had little effect on p21 protein stability/degradation. In summary, our results suggest that JKA97 inhibits human breast cancer cell growth through activating p21, independent of p53, which provides a basis for developing this compound as a novel drug for human breast cancer therapy

The ability of analysts’ recommendations to predict optimistic and pessimistic forecasts

Previous researches show that buy (growth) companies conduct income increasing earnings management in order to meet forecasts and generate positive forecast Errors (FEs). This behavior however, is not inherent in sell (non-growth) companies. Using the aforementioned background, this research hypothesizes that since sell companies are pressured to avoid income increasing earnings management, they are capable, and in fact more inclined, to pursue income decreasing Forecast Management (FM) with the purpose of generating positive FEs. Using a sample of 6553 firm-years of companies that are listed in the NYSE between the years 2005–2010, the study determines that sell companies conduct income decreasing FM to generate positive FEs. However, the frequency of positive FEs of sell companies does not exceed that of buy companies. Using the efficiency perspective, the study suggests that even though buy and sell companies have immense motivation in avoiding negative FEs, they exploit different but efficient strategies, respectively, in order to meet forecasts. Furthermore, the findings illuminated the complexities behind informative and opportunistic forecasts that falls under the efficiency versus opportunistic theories in literature

Functional Evolution of Leptin of Ochotona curzoniae in Adaptive Thermogenesis Driven by Cold Environmental Stress

BACKGROUND: Environmental stress can accelerate the directional selection and evolutionary rate of specific stress-response proteins to bring about new or altered functions, enhancing an organism's fitness to challenging environments. Plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae), an endemic and keystone species on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, is a high hypoxia and low temperature tolerant mammal with high resting metabolic rate and non-shivering thermogenesis to cope in this harsh plateau environment. Leptin is a key hormone related to how these animals regulate energy homeostasis. Previous molecular evolutionary analysis helped to generate the hypothesis that adaptive evolution of plateau pika leptin may be driven by cold stress. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To test the hypothesis, recombinant pika leptin was first purified. The thermogenic characteristics of C57BL/6J mice injected with pika leptin under warm (23±1°C) and cold (5±1°C) acclimation is investigated. Expression levels of genes regulating adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue and the hypothalamus are compared between pika leptin and human leptin treatment, suggesting that pika leptin has adaptively and functionally evolved. Our results show that pika leptin regulates energy homeostasis via reduced food intake and increased energy expenditure under both warm and cold conditions. Compared with human leptin, pika leptin demonstrates a superior induced capacity for adaptive thermogenesis, which is reflected in a more enhanced β-oxidation, mitochondrial biogenesis and heat production. Moreover, leptin treatment combined with cold stimulation has a significant synergistic effect on adaptive thermogenesis, more so than is observed with a single cold exposure or single leptin treatment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings support the hypothesis that cold stress has driven the functional evolution of plateau pika leptin as an ecological adaptation to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau