Micro Determinants of Labor Force Status Among Older Americans

This paper uses the first three waves of the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) to investigate the determinants of labor force status among older Americans. Using transitions at two-year intervals we find that after being retired or unemployed, those who are actively searching for a job have a higher probability of returning to work. We also find that being in good physical and mental health--measured by objective and subjective variables--increases the chances of becoming employed, as does having worked in the last twelve months. Those who are receiving disability payments are less likely to make this transition. If we focus on those who are married, we find a preference for joint leisure through the influence of the labor force status, health and age of the respondent's partner on the transition decisions. We investigate transitions in and out of employment and self-employment, and for subsamples of males and females. Using monthly employment dummies for the period 1989-97, we analyze monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual transitions and find that most of our conclusions are independent of the periodicity but that the effects of the variables vary across specifications.Labor Supply, Labor Force Transitions, Retirement Decisions, Health and Retirement Survey

Future entrepreneur’s profile

Given that entrepreneurship plays a key role in the development of a country’s economy, governments should stimulate entrepreneurial orientation, particularly among youngsters in their formative years; schools must play a pertinent role in the promotion and support of these capacities. Indeed, the European Commission advises that schools foster such skills. In this context, we apply a frame to screen school populations in the Azores Islands, Portugal, for prospects of entrepreneurship and to study the profiles of those who noticeably show entrepreneurial orientations. Knowing the ideal combination of personality traits that foretell young entrepreneurs, schools can develop the syllabuses that are best aimed at promoting entrepreneurship and increasing the capacities of those who prove to be entrepreneurially oriented. This work leads to the following main findings: first, that one quarter of all senior students in high school in the Azores Islands bears prospects for entrepreneurship and, second, this same group shows a well-defined psychological profile that may vary depending on one’s willingness to expend effort.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Prediction of entrepreneurship : an ordered regression approach

Entrepreneurship is a popular research topic over the last several decades. Various authors study the characteristics that best define future entrepreneur profiles. In this paper, we apply a framework to screen school populations in the Azores Islands, Portugal, for prospects of entrepreneurship and to study the profiles of those who show noticeably entrepreneurial orientations. The contribution of the paper consists of applying ordered regression to explain the entrepreneurial prospects of students in high school.N/

The Educated Russian's Curse: Returns to Education in the Russian Federation.

This paper uses the only representative sample of the Russian Federation, the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, to estimate the returns to education in this ex-communist country. This is one of the first studies to tackle this classic issue in labor economics with the realistic expectation of obtaining results for Russia comparable in quality and reliability to those available in developed countries and other economies in transition. Using standard regression techniques we find that the returns to education in Russia are quite low compared with those reported in the literature on countries throughout the world, in almost no specification reaching higher than 5\%. Moreover, there is virtually no improvement in returns to education in the 1992-99 period, a result somewhat at odds with the suggestion of several studies using Russian data from the early 1990s. When we instrument our main regressor using policy experiments from the 1960s, we find comparable results. We also perform a selectivity correction and discover even lower returns to education for men, although they become slightly higher for women. Additionally, we find extremely low returns to tenure, which can even become negative in certain specifications. These results present a bleak perspective for educated Russians, with negative implications for investments in education at all levels, auguring the imminent erosion of one of Russia's few assets not yet completely devalued, the human capital of its citizens.Returns to Education, Russia, Economic Transition, Instrumental Variables, Selectivity Correction

Retirement Expectations Formation Using the Health and Retirement Study

This paper examines how a wide array of factors (household and individual level financial, health and other taste shifter characteristics) influence retirement plans over time and how uncertainty affects the strategies that individuals use to plan their retirement years. Using panel data models we examine the role of health and economic factors on retirement planning using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We examine the rationality of plans for retirement controlling for sample selection. After controlling for sample selection, reporting biases, and unobserved heterogeneity we find that plans for retirement do follow the random walk hypothesis and pass tests of weak and strong rationality. These findings allow us to assume rationality and examine retirement plans using first differences. We then examine changes to those factors and the effects of new information on plans and find that new information contributes little to changes in plans. This leads us to conclude that on average people correctly form expectations over uncertain events when planning for retirement. These results have important implications for a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior. Classification-JEL: J26, J22, C23,D84 Keywords: Expectations, Retirement, Panel Data with selection, rationality

Early Retirement, Labor Supply, and Benefit Withholding: The Role of the Social Security Earnings Test

The labor supply and benefit claiming incentives provided by the early retirement rules of the Social Security Old Age benefits program are of growing importance as the Normal Retirement Age (NRA) increases to 67, the labor force participation of Older Americans rises, and a variety of reforms to the Social Security system are considered. Any reform needs to take into account the effects and rationale of the Social Security Earnings Test and the Actuarial Adjustment Factor. We describe these incentives, and analyze benefit withholding patterns using data from the Master Beneficiary Files of the Social Security Administration, and present descriptive and exploratory evidence on the determinants of benefit withholding using data from the Health and Retirement Survey. We then investigate the importance of the Earnings Test limits for work and claiming behavior using a dynamic life-cycle model of labor supply, benefit claiming, and withholding. We use the latter framework to compare the consequences of a number of changes to the Earnings Test provision for the labor supply behavior and earnings of older Americans.