Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Agent-Based Transport Models

This paper presents an analysis of the output variability of agent-based transport models. We simulated a MATSim model of the city of Hanover multiple times with identical input and evaluated the resulting travel times on different level of aggregation. On a global level, we observed minor variations of travel times. However, the results show an increased variation when examining the output on the level of districts or for individual agents. A recommendation for estimating the required number of simulation runs for a stable output of travel time for the purposed aggregation level is derived from our case study