Secular Fertility Declines Hinder Long-Run Economic Growth

Declining fertility is among the most salient features of global demography. By examining the lagged effects of fertility on the economic growth of 164 countries over the last half-century, this study found that the effect of a fertility decline lasts for more than three decades and that the long-run average effect is strongly negative for most countries. This finding was confirmed by using the plausibly exogenous fertility declines from the global family planning campaign since the mid-1960s. Within-country evidence from China’s one-child policy also confirmed this finding. Therefore, secular fertility declines represent a strong force driving down global economic growth

Agricultural Productivity and Income Divergence: Evidence from the Green Revolution

Developing countries sharing nearly identical growth trends for centuries dramatically diverged in terms of income per capita over the last half-century. Using data from 78 developing countries, this study shows that the Green Revolution (GR) since the 1960s can explain most of the income divergence. Beyond the understanding that agriculture growth promotes economic growth, the study shows that developing countries less suitable for cultivating GR crops were substantially damaged by GR-induced grain imports, which increased fertility and retarded human and physical capital formation. A counterfactual analysis removing GR’s effect showed parallel growth trends similar to that prior to the GR

The postwar growth slowdown and the path of economic development

Although the persistent slowdown in the growth of per capita output has been observed in virtually all industrialized countries since the early 1970s, no persuasive theoretical explanation for this phenomenon has been given. This paper constructs a modified endogenous growth model that indicates the slowdown is part of the natural process of economic development. Specifically, the model predicts that each economy develops along a path characterized by Malthusian stagnation, economic take-off, demographic transition, growth slowdown, and steady-state. The persistent slowdown in growth indicates that even the most developed countries are not in their steady-state yet, and their future growth could be slower

The postwar growth slowdown and the path of economic development

Although the persistent slowdown in the growth of per capita output has been observed in virtually all industrialized countries since the early 1970s, no persuasive theoretical explanation for this phenomenon has been given. This paper constructs a modified endogenous growth model that indicates the slowdown is part of the natural process of economic development. Specifically, the model predicts that each economy develops along a path characterized by Malthusian stagnation, economic take-off, demographic transition, growth slowdown, and steady-state. The persistent slowdown in growth indicates that even the most developed countries are not in their steady-state yet, and their future growth could be slower

Global genetic diversity, introgression, and evolutionary adaptation of indicine cattle revealed by whole genome sequencing

Indicine cattle, also referred to as zebu (Bos taurus indicus), play a central role in pastoral communities across a wide range of agro-ecosystems, from extremely hot semiarid regions to hot humid tropical regions. However, their adaptive genetic changes following their dispersal into East Asia from the Indian subcontinent have remained poorly documented. Here, we characterize their global genetic diversity using high-quality whole-genome sequencing data from 354 indicine cattle of 57 breeds/populations, including major indicine phylogeographic groups worldwide. We reveal their probable migration into East Asia was along a coastal route rather than inland routes and we detected introgression from other bovine species. Genomic regions carrying morphology-, immune-, and heat-tolerance-related genes underwent divergent selection according to Asian agro-ecologies. We identify distinct sets of loci that contain promising candidate variants for adaptation to hot semi-arid and hot humid tropical ecosystems. Our results indicate that the rapid and successful adaptation of East Asian indicine cattle to hot humid environments was promoted by localized introgression from banteng and/or gaur. Our findings provide insights into the history and environmental adaptation of indicine cattle

Essays on the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation

The thesis studies the potential economic impacts of climate change on agricultural production and estimates to what extent adaptations can help to offset the potential damages of climate change on agricultural profits. The thesis consists of three journal-style articles. Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapter 2 is the article “Why do econometric studies disagree on the effect of warming on agricultural output? A meta-analysis”. This article conducts a meta-analysis based on 130 primary econometric studies to better understand the conflict among the existing estimates of warming on agriculture. We find that differences in the latitude of the study sample, the temperature measure that was used, the econometric approach that was applied, and publication biases can explain why the primary studies disagree. We also find that this disagreement can be reduced if the primary studies use a yearly temperature measure and adopt the hedonic modelling approach, as in doing so, they will tend to produce estimates with a similar but previously supported view that warming will lead to positive effects on agriculture in the high latitudes and negative effects in the low latitudes. Chapter 3 is an article “How large is the potential economic benefit of agricultural adaptation to climate change? Evidence from the United States”. Based on the meta-analysis of Chapter 2, this article argues that studies of climate change impacts on agricultural profits using panel data typically do not take account of adaptations over time by farmers, and those that do tend to use the standard hedonic approach which is potentially biased. As an alternative, this chapter develops a panel framework that includes farmer adaptation. When tested with United States data, this study finds that the negative impact of expected climate change on farm profits by 2100 is only one-third as large once likely adaptation by farmers is taken into account. Chapter 4 is the third article “The potential benefits of agricultural adaptation to warming in China in the long run”. Based on a panel of household survey data from a large sample in rural China, the article adopts the panel approach proposed in Chapter 3 to estimate the potential benefits of adaptation and to identify the determinants of farmers’ adaptation capability. The empirical results suggest that, for various model settings and climate change scenarios, long-run adaptations should mitigate one-third to one-half of the damages of warming on crop profits by the end of this century. These findings support the basic argument of the hedonic approach that omitting long-run adaptations will dramatically overestimate the potential damage of climate change. The chapter also finds that household-level capital intensity and farmland size have significant effects on farmers’ adaptive capacities.Thesis (Ph.D.) (Research by Publication) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2016

Agricultural subsidies retard urbanisation in China

Although agricultural subsidies are usually seen in high-income countries with small agricultural labour forces, China started to heavily subsidise agriculture when its percapita income was very low and more than half of its population was working in agriculture. A concern is that these abnormal agricultural subsidies may have significantly retarded China’s urbanisation process by reducing rural–urban migration. Based on a panel of county-level data from 1,878 Chinese counties, we found that agricultural subsidies reduced China’s yearly outflow of agricultural labour by 0.68 million people (with a 95 per cent confidence interval of 0.67–0.69) – about 5.7 per cent of the annual rural–urban migration observed during the sample period. We concluded that abnormal agricultural subsidies are a significant cause of China’s widely observed under-urbanisatio

Agricultural subsidies retard urbanisation in China

Although agricultural subsidies are usually seen in high-income countries with small agricultural labour forces, China started to heavily subsidise agriculture when its percapita income was very low and more than half of its population was working in agriculture. A concern is that these abnormal agricultural subsidies may have significantly retarded China’s urbanisation process by reducing rural–urban migration. Based on a panel of county-level data from 1,878 Chinese counties, we found that agricultural subsidies reduced China’s yearly outflow of agricultural labour by 0.68 million people (with a 95 per cent confidence interval of 0.67–0.69) – about 5.7 per cent of the annual rural–urban migration observed during the sample period. We concluded that abnormal agricultural subsidies are a significant cause of China’s widely observed under-urbanisatio

Evaluating the Impact of China's Fourth Round of Poverty Alleviation Program

This study evaluates the impact of China's fourth round of poverty alleviation program, which targeted 14 contiguous destitute areas containing 680 counties and a population of 240 million. From 2012 to 2019, China allocated a total of 813.6 billion yuan (US$126.1 billion), primarily to economic development programs within these 14 areas. Using county-level data from 2006 to 2019, our difference-in-differences and difference-in-discontinuities estimates suggest that the program increased GDP per capita in the 14 areas by over 45% from 2012 to 2019, with substantial gains observed in both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Our preferred estimates suggest a rate of return to the program ranged from 155.8% to 165.8%. By using data from over 14,500 rural households from 2006 to 2015, we find that the program significantly elevated rural income and reduced rural poverty. While the income growth of extremely poor households was propelled more by agricultural income growth, the income growth of relatively poor households primarily resulted from non-agricultural sources