Bias adjustment of satellite-based precipitation estimation using artificial neural networks-cloud classification system over Saudi Arabia

Precipitation is a key input variable for hydrological and climate studies. Rain gauges can provide reliable precipitation measurements at a point of observations. However, the uncertainty of rain measurements increases when a rain gauge network is sparse. Satellite-based precipitation estimations SPEs appear to be an alternative source of measurements for regions with limited rain gauges. However, the systematic bias from satellite precipitation estimation should be estimated and adjusted. In this study, a method of removing the bias from the precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks-cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) over a region where the rain gauge is sparse is investigated. The method consists of monthly empirical quantile mapping of gauge and satellite measurements over several climate zones as well as inverse-weighted distance for the interpolation of gauge measurements. Seven years (2010–2016) of daily precipitation estimation from PERSIANN-CCS was used to test and adjust the bias of estimation over Saudi Arabia. The first 6 years (2010–2015) are used for calibration, while 1 year (2016) is used for validation. The results show that the mean yearly bias is reduced by 90%, and the yearly root mean square error is reduced by 68% during the validation year. The experimental results confirm that the proposed method can effectively adjust the bias of satellite-based precipitation estimations

Toward improved hydrologic prediction with reduced uncertainty using sequential multi-model combination

The contemporary usage of hydrologic models has been to rely on a single model to perform the simulation and predictions. Despite the tremendous progress, efforts and investment put into developing more hydrologic models, there is no convincing claim that any particular model in existence is superior to other models for various applications and under all circumstances. This results to reducing the size of the plausible model space and often leads to predictions that may well-represent some phenomena or events at the expenses of others. Assessment of predictive uncertainty based on a single model is subject to statistical bias and most likely underestimation of uncertainty. This endorses the implementation of multi-model methods for more accurate estimation of uncertainty in hydrologic prediction. In this study, we present two methods for the combination of multiple model predictors using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Sequential Bayesian Model Combination (SBMC). Both methods are statistical schemes to infer a combined probabilistic prediction that possess more reliability and skill than the original model members produced by several competing models. This paper discusses the features of both methods and explains how the limitation of BMA can be overcome by SBMC. Three hydrologic models are considered and it is shown that multi-model combination can result in higher prediction accuracy than individual models. © 2008 ASCE

Quantum Yang-Mills gravity in flat space-time and effective curved space-time for motions of classical objects

Yang-Mills gravity with translational gauge group T(4) in flat space-time implies a simple self-coupling of gravitons and a truly conserved energy-momentum tensor. Its consistency with experiments crucially depends on an interesting property that an `effective Riemannian metric tensor' emerges in and only in the geometric-optics limit of the photon and particle wave equations. We obtain Feynman rules for a coupled graviton-fermion system, including a general graviton propagator with two gauge parameters and the interaction of ghost particles. The equation of motion of macroscopic objects, as an N-body system, is demonstrated as the geometric-optics limit of the fermion wave equation. We discuss a relativistic Hamilton-Jacobi equation with an `effective Riemann metric tensor' for the classical particles.Comment: 20 pages, to be published in "The European Physical Journal - Plus"(2011). The final publication is available at http://www.epj.or

Investigating the impact of remotely sensed precipitation and hydrologic model uncertainties on the ensemble streamflow forecasting

In the past few years sequential data assimilation (SDA) methods have emerged as the best possible method at hand to properly treat all sources of error in hydrological modeling. However, very few studies have actually implemented SDA methods using realistic input error models for precipitation. In this study we use particle filtering as a SDA method to propagate input errors through a conceptual hydrologic model and quantify the state, parameter and streamflow uncertainties. Recent progress in satellite-based precipitation observation techniques offers an attractive option for considering spatiotemporal variation of precipitation. Therefore, we use the PERSIANN-CCS precipitation product to propagate input errors through our hydrologic model. Some uncertainty scenarios are set up to incorporate and investigate the impact of the individual uncertainty sources from precipitation, parameters and also combined error sources on the hydrologic response. Also probabilistic measure are used to quantify the quality of ensemble prediction. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union

High power (60mW) single frequency erbium:ytterbium codoped fiber laser

The characteristics of a high power Er3+:Yb3+ single frequency fiber laser pumped at 980nm are reported. The device gives 60mW output power with RIN 10MHz and linewidth 500kHz. At low output powers (< 30mW) the slope efficiency is as high as 25%, falling to 12% at higher powers, the saturation behaviour is related to a bottleneck effect due to the finite Yb-Er transfer rate. Improved performance can be obtained using new fibers with an increased rare-earth concentration which show negligible signs of erbium clustering

Assessment of assimilating SMOS soil moisture information into a distributed hydrologic model

The role that soil moisture plays in terms of modulating hydrologic processes including infiltration and runoff generation makes it an essential component to capture for hydrologic modeling. This work aims to leverage information gained from SMOS to improve surface soil moisture simulations in the Russian River Basin (California, U.S.A). The basin's complex terrain offers a rigorous testing ground for SMOS soil moisture products. Data from seven in situ observation sites are used to assess model performance after assimilating SMOS-based soil saturation ratios. For a comparison of "best case" scenarios, the in situ observations themselves are assimilated. Results show that SMOS assimilated simulations shows modest improvement at most in situ locations. Despite the observed decrease in model performance at some locations, overall performance of simulations assimilated with SMOS-based saturation ratios remains high. Findings suggest that even in a complex environment, useful information may be extracted from SMOS estimates for hydrologic modeling

An object-based approach for verification of precipitation estimation

Verification has become an integral component in the development of precipitation algorithms used in satellite-based precipitation products and evaluation of numerical weather prediction models. A number of object-based verification methods have been developed to quantify the errors related to spatial patterns and placement of precipitation. In this study, an image processing technique known as watershed transformation, capable of detecting closely spaced, but separable precipitation areas, is adopted in the object-based approach. Several key attributes of the segmented precipitation objects are selected and interest values of those attributes are estimated based on the distance measurement of the estimated and reference images. An overall interest score is estimated from all the selected attributes and their interest values. The proposed object-based approach is implemented to validate satellite-based precipitation estimation against ground radar observations. The results indicate that the watershed segmentation technique is capable of separating the closely spaced local-scale precipitation areas. In addition, three verification metrics, including the object-based false alarm ratio, object-based missing ratio, and overall interest score, reveal the skill of precipitation estimates in depicting the spatial and geometric characteristics of the precipitation structure against observations