Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors

It is well known that Bayes’ theorem (with likelihood ratios) can be used to calculate the impact of evidence, such as a ‘match’ of some feature of a person. Typically the feature of interest is the DNA profile, but the method applies in principle to any feature of a person or object, including not just DNA, fingerprints, or footprints, but also more basic features such as skin colour, height, hair colour or even name. Notwithstanding concerns about the extensiveness of databases of such features, a serious challenge to the use of Bayes in such legal contexts is that its standard formulaic representations are not readily understandable to non-statisticians. Attempts to get round this problem usually involve representations based around some variation of an event tree. While this approach works well in explaining the most trivial instance of Bayes’ theorem (involving a single hypothesis and a single piece of evidence) it does not scale up to realistic situations. In particular, even with a single piece of match evidence, if we wish to incorporate the possibility that there are potential errors (both false positives and false negatives) introduced at any stage in the investigative process, matters become very complex. As a result we have observed expert witnesses (in different areas of speciality) routinely ignore the possibility of errors when presenting their evidence. To counter this, we produce what we believe is the first full probabilistic solution of the simple case of generic match evidence incorporating both classes of testing errors. Unfortunately, the resultant event tree solution is too complex for intuitive comprehension. And, crucially, the event tree also fails to represent the causal information that underpins the argument. In contrast, we also present a simple-to-construct graphical Bayesian Network (BN) solution that automatically performs the calculations and may also be intuitively simpler to understand. Although there have been multiple previous applications of BNs for analysing forensic evidence—including very detailed models for the DNA matching problem, these models have not widely penetrated the expert witness community. Nor have they addressed the basic generic match problem incorporating the two types of testing error. Hence we believe our basic BN solution provides an important mechanism for convincing experts—and eventually the legal community—that it is possible to rigorously analyse and communicate the full impact of match evidence on a case, in the presence of possible error

Light weight fire resistant graphite composites

Composite structures with a honeycomb core and characterized by lightweight and excellent fire resistance are provided. These sandwich structures employ facesheets made up of bismaleimide-vinyl styrylpyridine copolymers with fiber reinforcement such as carbon fiber reinforcement. In preferred embodiments the facesheets are over layered with a decorative film. The properties of these composites make them attractive materials of construction aircraft and spacecraft

Baryon resonances and hadronic interactions in a finite volume

In a finite volume, resonances and multi-hadron states are identified by discrete energy levels. When comparing the results of lattice QCD calculations to scattering experiments, it is important to have a way of associating the energy spectrum of the finite-volume lattice with the asymptotic behaviour of the S-matrix. A new technique for comparing energy eigenvalues with scattering phase shifts is introduced, which involves the construction of an exactly solvable matrix Hamiltonian model. The model framework is applied to the case of $\Delta\rightarrow N\pi$ decay, but is easily generalized to include multi-channel scattering. Extracting resonance parameters involves matching the energy spectrum of the model to that of a lattice QCD calculation. The resulting fit parameters are then used to generate phase shifts. Using a sample set of pseudodata, it is found that the extraction of the resonance position is stable with respect to volume for a variety of regularization schemes, and compares favorably with the well-known Luescher method. The model-dependence of the result is briefly investigated.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Talk presented at the 30th International Symposium on Lattice Field Theory (Lattice 2012), June 24-29, 2012, Cairns, Australi

Polyvinyl alcohol cross-linked with two aldehydes

A film forming polyvinyl alcohol resin is admixed, in aqueous solution, with a dialdehyde crosslinking agent which is capable of crosslinking the polyvinyl alcohol resin and a water soluble acid aldehyde containing a reactive aldehyde group capable of reacting with hydroxyl groups in the polyvinyl alcohol resin and an ionizable acid hydrogen atom. The dialdehyde is present in an amount sufficient to react with from 1 to 20% by weight of the theoretical amount required to react with all of the hydroxyl groups of the polyvinyl alcohol. The amount of acid aldehyde is from 1 to 50% by weight, same basis, and is sufficient to reduce the pH of the aqueous admixture to 5 or less. The admixture is then formed into a desired physical shape, such as by casting a sheet or film, and the shaped material is then heated to simultaneously dry and crosslink the article

Sagnac Interferometer Enhanced Particle Tracking in Optical Tweezers

A setup is proposed to enhance tracking of very small particles, by using optical tweezers embedded within a Sagnac interferometer. The achievable signal-to-noise ratio is shown to be enhanced over that for a standard optical tweezers setup. The enhancement factor increases asymptotically as the interferometer visibility approaches 100%, but is capped at a maximum given by the ratio of the trapping field intensity to the detector saturation threshold. For an achievable visibility of 99%, the signal-to-noise ratio is enhanced by a factor of 200, and the minimum trackable particle size is 2.4 times smaller than without the interferometer

Grain Boundary Scars and Spherical Crystallography

We describe experimental investigations of the structure of two-dimensional spherical crystals. The crystals, formed by beads self-assembled on water droplets in oil, serve as model systems for exploring very general theories about the minimum energy configurations of particles with arbitrary repulsive interactions on curved surfaces. Above a critical system size we find that crystals develop distinctive high-angle grain boundaries, or scars, not found in planar crystals. The number of excess defects in a scar is shown to grow linearly with the dimensionless system size. The observed slope is expected to be universal, independent of the microscopic potential.Comment: 4 pages, 3 eps figs (high quality images available from Mark Bowick