Cruise Tourism and Sea Ice in Canada's Hudson Bay Region

Tourism in the Hudson Bay region of central northern Canada generally is associated with non-consumptive forms of nature-based activities (such as polar bear viewing). However, the region has experienced variable growth in the cruise sector in recent years. This paper examines patterns of cruise activity in all subregions of the Hudson Bay region during three cruise seasons (2006, 2008, and 2009) and mainly reveals a pattern of decline. Since the prevalence of sea ice is an important part of visitor experiences of polar cruises, we examine sea ice change and occurrence of icebergs in the Hudson Bay region. Our sea ice analysis suggests that the length of the navigable shipping season is increasing in this region, which may facilitate both earlier and later shipping. But in terms of cruise traffic, we suggest that the demise of ice coverage signals a possible decline in cruise activity in most of the Hudson Bay region because ice-supported wildlife may shift north with the diminishing ice regime. Given the possible environmental and socio-cultural implications of changing cruise activity patterns in the Arctic and the absence of broad-scale monitoring and surveillance of the industry, use of these available data sources is vital to building a clearer picture.De manière générale, le tourisme dans la région de la baie d’Hudson du centre-nord du Canada se rapporte à des activités non consomptibles en plein air (comme l’observation des ours polaires). Toutefois, ces dernières années, le secteur des croisières de cette région a enregistré un taux de croissance variable. La présente communication se penche sur les tendances en matière de croisières dans toutes les sous-régions de la région de la baie d’Hudson au cours de trois saisons de croisière (2006, 2008 et 2009), ce qui laisse principalement entrevoir un déclin à cet égard. Puisque l’existence de glace de mer revêt une grande importance pour les visiteurs des croisières polaires, nous avons examiné les changements en matière de glace de mer et l’occurrence d’icebergs dans la région de la baie d’Hudson. Notre analyse de la glace de mer laisse voir que la longueur de la saison de navigation augmente dans cette région, ce qui peut avoir pour effet de faciliter la navigation en début et en fin de saison. Cela dit, sur le plan de la circulation de croisière, nous donnons à penser que la disparition de la couche de glace laisse entrevoir un déclin possible des activités de croisière dans la plupart de la région de la baie d’Hudson parce que la faune qui évolue sur la glace pourrait s’en aller vers le nord en raison du régime de glaces à la baisse. Compte tenu des incidences environnementales et socioculturelles susceptibles de découler des tendances changeantes relativement aux activités de croisière dans l’Arctique et de l’absence de suivi et de surveillance à grande échelle de l’industrie, il est essentiel de recourir aux sources de données disponibles afin d’obtenir un meilleur aperçu de la situation

Sea Ice in Canada’s Arctic: Implications for Cruise Tourism

Although cruise travel to the Canadian Arctic has grown steadily since 1984, some commentators have suggested that growth in this sector of the tourism industry might accelerate, given the warming effects of climate change that are making formerly remote Canadian Arctic communities more accessible to cruise vessels. Using sea-ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, we argue that Global Climate Model predictions of an ice-free Arctic as early as 2050–70 may lead to a false sense of optimism regarding the potential exploitation of all Canadian Arctic waters for tourism purposes. This is because climate warming is altering the character and distribution of sea ice, increasing the likelihood of hull-penetrating, high-latitude, multi-year ice that could cause major pitfalls for future navigation in some places in Arctic Canada. These changes may have negative implications for cruise tourism in the Canadian Arctic, and, in particular, for tourist transits through the Northwest Passage and High Arctic regions.Bien que le nombre de voyages de croisières se soit accru régulièrement depuis 1984, certains commentateurs ont laissé entendre que la croissance de ce secteur de l’industrie touristique pourrait s’intensifier en raison des effets de réchauffement du changement climatique qui rendent des lieux de l’Arctique canadien autrefois éloignés plus accessibles aux navires de croisière. En nous appuyant sur les cartes de la fréquence de présence de glace de mer du Service canadien des glaces, nous soutenons que les prédictions du modèle climatique mondial selon lesquelles il n’y aurait plus de glace dans l’Arctique dès les années 2050 à 2070 pourraient engendrer un faux sens d’optimisme en ce qui a trait à l’exploitation éventuelle de toutes les eaux de l’Arctique canadien à des fins touristiques. Cela s’explique par le fait que le réchauffement climatique modifie le caractère et la répartition de la glace de mer, ce qui a pour effet d’augmenter la possibilité de la présence de glace de haute latitude datant de nombreuses années et capable de pénétrer les coques, glace qui pourrait présenter des pièges importants en matière de navigation future dans certains endroits de l’Arctique canadien. Ces changements pourraient avoir des incidences négatives sur le tourisme de croisière dans l’Arctique canadien et, en particulier, sur les transits touristiques dans le passage du Nord-Ouest et les régions de l’Extrême-Arctique

A Comparison of Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Export Between Nares Strait and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Nares Strait and the channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) act as conduits for sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean but have never been directly compared. Here, we perform such a comparison for both the sea ice area and volume fluxes from October 2016 to December 2021. Nares Strait provided the largest average seasonal (October through September) ice area flux of 95 ± 8 × 103 km2 followed by the CAA regions of the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) at 41 ± 7 × 103 km2 and M’Clure Strait at 2 ± 8 × 103 km2 with corresponding ice volume fluxes of 177 ± 15 km3, 59 ± 10 km3, and 8 ± 8 km3, respectively. Larger Arctic Ocean ice export at Nares Strait was associated with a shorter ice arch duration (237 days) compared to M’Clure Strait (163 days) and QEI (65 days). Seasonal Arctic Ocean ice export was dominated by Nares Strait in 2017–2019 and 2021 but was remarkably exceeded by the QEI in 2020. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were found to influence the ice area flux in the absence of ice arches but no occurrence of coherent Arctic Ocean ice export events coinciding across all gates were observed. Average net seasonal Arctic Ocean ice area and volume export were 138 × 103 km2 and 245 km3, which represent ∼16% of the area and ∼25% of the volume of sea ice export from Fram Strait. Divergent Arctic Ocean export ice trajectories are apparent for Nares Strait and the QEI when compared to Fram Strait

The Stepwise Reduction of Multiyear Sea Ice Area in the Arctic Ocean Since 1980

The loss of multiyear sea ice (MYI) in the Arctic Ocean is a significant change that affects all facets of the Arctic environment. Using a Lagrangian ice age product, we examine MYI loss and quantify the annual MYI area budget from 1980 to 2021 as the balance of export, melt, and replenishment. Overall, MYI area declined at 72,500 km2 /yr; however, a majority of the loss occurred during two stepwise reductions that interrupt an otherwise balanced budget and resulted in the northward contraction of the MYI pack. First, in 1989, a change in atmospheric forcing led to a +56% anomaly in MYI export through Fram Strait. The second occurred from 2006 to 2008 with anomalously high melt (+25%) and export (+23%) coupled with low replenishment (−8%). In terms of trends, melt has increased since 1989, particularly in the Beaufort Sea, export has decreased since 2008 due to reduced MYI coverage north of Fram Strait, and replenishment has increased over the full time series due to a negative feedback that promotes seasonal ice survival at higher latitudes exposed by MYI loss. However, retention of older MYI has significantly declined, transitioning the MYI pack toward younger MYI that is less resilient than previously anticipated and could soon elicit another stepwise reduction. We speculate that future MYI loss will be driven by increased melt and reduced replenishment, both of which are enhanced with continued warming and will one day render the Arctic Ocean free of MYI, a change that will coincide with a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean