Money Balances in the Production Function: A Retrospective Look

This paper surveys the literature on real balances in the production function since Sinai-Stokes (1972). The discussion has now moved beyond the question of real balances belonging in the production function to the issue of how to model the effect of the financial sector on the real economy. Results reported argue that the effect of the degree of optimality of the financial sector (as measured by the interest rate) is a significant shift parameter in the production function. While this specification may be improved on in future work, results to date indicate that an aggregate production function that does not take into account the effects of the financial sector is not completely specified.

Real Money Balances in the Production Function: A Comment

Money; Production Function; Production; Real Money Balances

Growth and survival of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from Karluk Lake and River, Alaska, in relation to climatic and oceanic regimes and indices, 1922–2000

We examined whether the relationship between climate and salmon production was linked through the effect of climate on the growth of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) at sea. Smolt length and juvenile, immature, and maturing growth rates were estimated from increments on scales of adult sockeye salmon that returned to the Karluk River and Lake system on Kodiak Island, Alaska, over 77 years, 1924–2000. Survival was higher during the warm climate regimes and lower during the cool regime. Growth was not correlated with survival, as estimated from the residuals of the Ricker stock-recruitment model. Juvenile growth was correlated with an atmospheric forcing index and immature growth was correlated with the amount of coastal precipitation, but the magnitude of winter and spring coastal downwelling in the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest atmospheric patterns that influence the directional bifurcation of the Pacific Current were not related to the growth of Karluk sockeye salmon. However, indices of sea surface temperature, coastal precipitation, and atmospheric circulation in the eastern North Pacific were correlated with the survival of Karluk sockeye salmon. Winter and spring precipitation and atmospheric circulation are possible processes linking survival to climate variation in Karluk sockeye salmon

Assessment of examiner leniency and stringency ('hawk-dove effect') in the MRCP(UK) clinical examination (PACES) using multi-facet Rasch modelling

BACKGROUND: A potential problem of clinical examinations is known as the hawk-dove problem, some examiners being more stringent and requiring a higher performance than other examiners who are more lenient. Although the problem has been known qualitatively for at least a century, we know of no previous statistical estimation of the size of the effect in a large-scale, high-stakes examination. Here we use FACETS to carry out a multi-facet Rasch modelling of the paired judgements made by examiners in the clinical examination (PACES) of MRCP(UK), where identical candidates were assessed in identical situations, allowing calculation of examiner stringency. METHODS: Data were analysed from the first nine diets of PACES, which were taken between June 2001 and March 2004 by 10,145 candidates. Each candidate was assessed by two examiners on each of seven separate tasks. with the candidates assessed by a total of 1,259 examiners, resulting in a total of 142,030 marks. Examiner demographics were described in terms of age, sex, ethnicity, and total number of candidates examined. RESULTS: FACETS suggested that about 87% of main effect variance was due to candidate differences, 1% due to station differences, and 12% due to differences between examiners in leniency-stringency. Multiple regression suggested that greater examiner stringency was associated with greater examiner experience and being from an ethnic minority. Male and female examiners showed no overall difference in stringency. Examination scores were adjusted for examiner stringency and it was shown that for the present pass mark, the outcome for 95.9% of candidates would be unchanged using adjusted marks, whereas 2.6% of candidates would have passed, even though they had failed on the basis of raw marks, and 1.5% of candidates would have failed, despite passing on the basis of raw marks. CONCLUSION: Examiners do differ in their leniency or stringency, and the effect can be estimated using Rasch modelling. The reasons for differences are not clear, but there are some demographic correlates, and the effects appear to be reliable across time. Account can be taken of differences, either by adjusting marks or, perhaps more effectively and more justifiably, by pairing high and low stringency examiners, so that raw marks can be used in the determination of pass and fail