Implications of climate change and anthropogenic activity for the water security of West African river basins

West Africa experiences some of the most extreme climatic variability anywhere in the world. The 1970s and 1980s saw drought triggering regional-scale famine; in more recent years, a recovery in rainfall totals has led to devastating flood events, such as those seen across the region in 2009. Knowledge of the potential impact of future climate and anthropogenic change on water resources, food production and ecosystem services for highly vulnerable populations is essential to water planners, managers and policy makers. The GWAVA water resources model provides key information on the potential scale of water deficits and/or surpluses across West Africa for the present and future climate using 29 Global Circulation Models from the CMIP5 ensemble. Areas of concern are highlighted, and mitigating strategies explored, such as supplementary irrigation or use of more drought-tolerant crops, as sustainable ways in which to support climate-compatible development in the region. Analysis considers the role of current policy on the allocation of water resources in West Africa, and how a changing future climate may impact these policies and the region’s growing population

A modelling approach to assess the impact of climate change & anthropogenic activity on the water resources of the Narmada river basin

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated & artificially influenced catchment in Peninsular India, covering 98 796 km2. The basin includes the states of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra & Gujarat, supporting a population of over 16 million people. Agriculture is the dominant land use within the basin, accounting for over 56% of the basin area. There are over 3000 interventions, with up to another 30 dams planned for construction over the next half-century. The study of the Narmada basin is part of an ongoing collaboration between CEH (UK) & NIH (India) with the goal of increasing water security for those living within the basin & surrounding watersheds

Understanding future water challenges in a highly regulated Indian river basin — modelling the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper Narmada

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin

Initial lists of AMMA-2050 user-relevant climate metrics

AMMA-2050 (African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis 2050) will improve understanding of how the West African monsoon will be affected by climate change in the coming decades – and help West African societies prepare and adapt

Hydrological research for AMMA-2050

In recent decades, West Africa has experienced some of the most extreme rainfall variability anywhere in the world. At present there is no consensus on how changes in greenhouse gases, land cover and aerosols will impact rainfall and flow regimes in the region. AMMA-2050 will investigate how the West African monsoon will change in future decades, and investigate the causes of High Impact Weather (HIW) and how they might change in the future. We will use this information to increase the understanding of future changes in floods, water resources and urban flooding

Hydrological research for AMMA-2050

In recent decades, West Africa has experienced some of the most extreme rainfall variability anywhere in the world. At present there is no consensus on how changes in greenhouse gases, land cover and aerosols will impact rainfall and flow regimes in the region. AMMA-2050 will investigate how the West African monsoon will change in future decades, and investigate the causes of High Impact Weather (HIW) and how they might change in the future. We will use this information to increase the understanding of future changes in floods, water resources and urban flooding

Modelling small-scale storage interventions in semi-arid India at the basin scale

There has been renewed interest in the performance, functionality, and sustainability of traditional small-scale storage interventions (check dams, farm bunds and tanks) used within semi-arid regions for the improvement of local water security and landscape preservation. The Central Groundwater Board of India is encouraging the construction of such interventions for the alleviation of water scarcity and to improve groundwater recharge. It is important for water resource management to understand the hydrological effect of these interventions at the basin scale. The quantification of small-scale interventions in hydrological modelling is often neglected, especially in large-scale modelling activities, as data availability is low and their hydrological functioning is uncertain. A version of the Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) water resources model was developed to assess the impact of interventions on the water balance of the Cauvery Basin and two smaller sub-catchments. Model results demonstrate that farm bunds appear to have a negligible effect on the average annual simulated streamflow at the outlets of the two sub-catchments and the basin, whereas tanks and check dams have a more significant and time varying effect. The open water surface of the interventions contributed to an increase in evaporation losses across the catchment. The change in simulated groundwater storage with the inclusion of interventions was not as significant as catchment-scale literature and field studies suggest. The model adaption used in this study provides a step-change in the conceptualisation and quantification of the consequences of small-scale storage interventions in large- or basin-scale hydrological models

Development of understanding in hydro-climate services in India to inform food and water security

This project aims to improve understanding of hydro-climate services in India in order to inform food and water security. It involves collaboration between UCL and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) in the UK and the National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bombay in India. This report is structured around the three main themes of the project: catchment hydrological modelling, assessment of environmental flows under climate change, and a feasibility study to assess the potential of developing guidance for India similar to that of the Flood Estimation Handbook for the UK

Flood impacts across scales: towards an integrated multi-scale approach for Malaysia

Flooding is a recurring challenge across Malaysia, causing loss of life, extensive disruption and having a major impact on the economy. A new collaboration between Malaysia and UK, supported by the Newton-Ungku Omar Fund, aims to address a critical and neglected aspect of large-scale flood risk assessment: the representation of damage models, including exposure, vulnerability and inundation. In this paper we review flood risk and impact across Malaysia and present an approach to integrate multiple sources of information on the drivers of flood risk (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) at a range of scales (from household to national), with reference to past flood events. Recent infrastructure projects in Malaysia, such as Kuala Lumpur’s SMART Tunnel, aim to mitigate the effects of flooding both in the present and, ideally, for the foreseeable future. Our collaborative project aims to develop and assess a new multi-scale model of flood risk in Malaysia for current and projected future scenarios, and to address climate adaptation questions of policy relevance for flood stakeholders. This approach will enable us to identify the preferred adaptation pathways given multiple scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Malaysia, and, beyond the life of our project, internationall

Fludarabine, cytarabine, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, and idarubicin with gemtuzumab ozogamicin improves event-free survival in younger patients with newly diagnosed aml and overall survival in patients with npm1 and flt3 mutations

Purpose To determine the optimal induction chemotherapy regimen for younger adults with newly diagnosed AML without known adverse risk cytogenetics. Patients and Methods One thousand thirty-three patients were randomly assigned to intensified (fludarabine, cytarabine, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, and idarubicin [FLAG-Ida]) or standard (daunorubicin and Ara-C [DA]) induction chemotherapy, with one or two doses of gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO). The primary end point was overall survival (OS). Results There was no difference in remission rate after two courses between FLAG-Ida + GO and DA + GO (complete remission [CR] + CR with incomplete hematologic recovery 93% v 91%) or in day 60 mortality (4.3% v 4.6%). There was no difference in OS (66% v 63%; P = .41); however, the risk of relapse was lower with FLAG-Ida + GO (24% v 41%; P < .001) and 3-year event-free survival was higher (57% v 45%; P < .001). In patients with an NPM1 mutation (30%), 3-year OS was significantly higher with FLAG-Ida + GO (82% v 64%; P = .005). NPM1 measurable residual disease (MRD) clearance was also greater, with 88% versus 77% becoming MRD-negative in peripheral blood after cycle 2 (P = .02). Three-year OS was also higher in patients with a FLT3 mutation (64% v 54%; P = .047). Fewer transplants were performed in patients receiving FLAG-Ida + GO (238 v 278; P = .02). There was no difference in outcome according to the number of GO doses, although NPM1 MRD clearance was higher with two doses in the DA arm. Patients with core binding factor AML treated with DA and one dose of GO had a 3-year OS of 96% with no survival benefit from FLAG-Ida + GO. Conclusion Overall, FLAG-Ida + GO significantly reduced relapse without improving OS. However, exploratory analyses show that patients with NPM1 and FLT3 mutations had substantial improvements in OS. By contrast, in patients with core binding factor AML, outcomes were excellent with DA + GO with no FLAG-Ida benefit