Predictions of the Maximum Amplitude, Time of Occurrence, and Total Length of Solar Cycle 24

In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time series. We characterise the predictive power of the proposed methodology in a causal manner by an incremental incorporation of past solar cycles to the available data base. In regressing maximum cycle intensity to curvature at the leading minimum we obtain a correlation coefficient R \approx 0.91 and for the upcoming Cycle 24 a forecast of 78 (90% confidence interval: 56 - 106). Ascent time also appears to be highly correlated to the second derivative at the starting minimum (R \approx -0.77), predicting maximum solar activity for October 2013 (90% confidence interval: January 2013 to September 2014). Solar Cycle 24 should come to an end by February 2020 (90% confidence interval: January 2019 to July 2021), although in this case correlational evidence is weaker (R \approx -0.56).Comment: Accepted in Solar Physic

Tropospheric ozone: respiratory effects and Australian air quality goals.

OBJECTIVE--To review the health effects of tropospheric ozone and discuss the implications for public health policy. DESIGN--Literature review and consultation with scientists in Australia and overseas. Papers in English or with English language abstracts were identified by Medline search from the international peer reviewed published reports. Those from the period 1980-93 were read systematically but selected earlier papers were also considered. Reports on ozone exposures were obtained from environmental agencies in the region. RESULTS--Exposure to ozone at concentrations below the current Australian air quality goal (0.12 ppm averaged over one hour) may cause impaired respiratory function. Inflammatory changes in the small airways and respiratory symptoms result from moderate to heavy exercise in the presence of ozone at levels of 0.08-0.12 ppm. The changes in respiratory function due to ozone are short lived, vary with the duration of exposure, may be modified by levels of other pollutants (such as sulphur dioxide and particulates), and differ appreciably between individuals. Bronchial lavage studies indicate that inflammation and other pathological changes may occur in the airways before reductions in air flow are detectable, and persist after respiratory function has returned to normal. It is not known whether exposures to ozone at low levels (0.08-0.12 ppm) cause lasting damage to the lung or, if such damage does occur, whether it is functionally significant. At present, it is not possible to identify confidently population subgroups with heightened susceptibility to ozone. People with asthma may be more susceptible to the effects of ozone than the general population but the evidence is not consistent. Recent reports suggest that ozone increases airway reactivity on subsequent challenge with allergens and other irritants. Animal studies are consistent with the findings in human populations. CONCLUSION--A new one hour air quality ozone goal of 0.08 ppm for Australia, and the introduction of a four hour goal of 0.06 ppm are recommended on health grounds

Solar Weather Event Modelling and Prediction

Key drivers of solar weather and mid-term solar weather are reviewed by considering a selection of relevant physics- and statistics-based scientific models as well as aselection of related prediction models, in order to provide an updated operational scenario for space weather applications. The characteristics and outcomes of the considered scientific and prediction models indicate that they only partially cope with the complex nature of solar activity for the lack of a detailed knowledge of the underlying physics. This is indicated by the fact that, on one hand, scientific models based on chaos theory and non-linear dynamics reproduce better the observed features, and, on the other hand, that prediction models based on statistics and artificial neural networks perform better. To date, the solar weather prediction success at most time and spatial scales is far from being satisfactory, but the forthcoming ground- and space-based high-resolution observations can add fundamental tiles to the modelling and predicting frameworks as well as the application of advanced mathematical approaches in the analysis of diachronic solar observations, that are a must to provide comprehensive and homogeneous data sets.peerReviewe