Forecasting GOES 15 >2 MeV Electron Fluxes From Solar Wind Data and Geomagnetic Indices

The flux of > 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is used by space weather forecasters as a key indicator of enhanced risk of damage to spacecraft in low, medium or geosynchronous Earth orbits. We present a methodology that uses the amount of time a single input dataset (solar wind data or geomagnetic indices) exceeds a given threshold to produce deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the > 2 MeV flux at GEO exceeding 1000 or 10000 cm ‐2 s ‐1 sr ‐1 within up to 10 days. By comparing our forecasts with measured fluxes from GOES 15 between 2014 and 2016, we determine the optimum forecast thresholds for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts by maximising the ROC and Brier Skill Scores respectively. The training dataset gives peak ROC scores of 0.71 to 0.87 and peak Brier Skill Scores of ‐0.03 to 0.32. Forecasts from AL give the highest skill scores for forecasts of up to 6‐days. AL, solar wind pressure or SYM‐H give the highest skill scores over 7‐10 days. Hit rates range over 56‐89% with false alarm rates of 11‐53%. Applied to 2012, 2013 and 2017, our best forecasts have hit rates of 56‐83% and false alarm rates of 10‐20%. Further tuning of the forecasts may improve these. Our hit rates are comparable to those from operational fluence forecasts, that incorporate fluence measurements, but our false alarm rates are higher. This proof‐of‐concept shows that the geosynchronous electron flux can be forecast with a degree of success without incorporating a persistence element into the forecasts

No blank slates: Pre-existing schemas about pharmaceuticals predict memory for side effects

OBJECTIVES: Attribution of symptoms as medication side effects is informed by pre-existing beliefs about medicines and perceptions of personal sensitivity to their effects (pharmaceutical schemas). We tested whether (1) pharmaceutical schemas were associated with memory (recall/recognition) for side effect information (2) memory explained the attribution of a common unrelated symptom as a side effect. DESIGN: In this analogue study participants saw the patient leaflet of a fictitious asthma drug listing eight side effects. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured recall and recognition memory for side effects and used a vignette to test whether participants attributed an unlisted common symptom (headache) as a side effect. RESULTS: Participants who perceived pharmaceuticals as more harmful in general recalled fewer side effects correctly (rCorrect Recall = −.273), were less able to differentiate between listed and unlisted side effects (rRecognition Sensitivity = −.256) and were more likely to attribute the unlisted headache symptom as a side effect (rside effect attribution = .381, ps < .01). The effect of harm beliefs on side effect attribution was partially mediated by correct recall of side effects. CONCLUSION: Pharmaceutical schemas are associated with memory for side effect information. Memory may explain part of the association between pharmaceutical schemas and the attribution of unrelated symptoms as side effects

Beliefs about medication predict the misattribution of a common symptom as a medication side effect - Evidence from an analogue online study.

OBJECTIVE: Some perceived medication side effects may be 'normal' symptoms that patients misattribute to the medication. Using an analogue approach, we tested if medication beliefs predict whether participants misattribute a headache as a side effect and subsequently intend to stop medication. METHODS: We recruited 690 participants, 223 reporting a past asthma diagnosis. They received information about asthma and Molair, a fictitious asthma treatment modeled on a licensed treatment (montelukast). We varied the description of efficacy and side effects (which did not include headache). Pre-exposure to this information, participants completed the Beliefs about Medicine Questionnaire (BMQ)-General and the Perceived Sensitivity to Medicines Scale (PSM), post-exposure they completed the BMQ-Specific. Participants were asked to imagine they experienced a headache while taking Molair. Finally, they rated whether the headache was a side effect (misattribution) and if they would stop taking Molair (behavioral intention). RESULTS: Nearly a quarter (170) of participants misattributed the headache to Molair and 69 (10%) subsequently intended to stop Molair. Both outcomes were predicted by general and specific medication beliefs. Odds of misattribution (m) and behavioral intention (i) increased with higher General Harm (ORm=1.90, ORi=2.72), General Overuse (ORm=1.74, ORi=1.56) and Molair Concern beliefs (ORm=1.52, ORi=1.78, all p<.01), but decreased with General Benefit (ORm=0.72, ORi=0.53) and Molair Necessity beliefs (ORm=0.72, ORi=0.70, all p<.05). CONCLUSION: Symptom misattribution and subsequent intentions to stop Molair were predicted by pre-exposure beliefs about medicines in general and post-exposure beliefs about Molair. Patients with negative medication beliefs may be prone to misattribute symptoms and subsequently stop medication

Laparoscopic treatment of isolated superficial peritoneal endometriosis for managing chronic pelvic pain in women:study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility trial (ESPriT1)

Background: Endometriosis (where endometrial-like tissue is found outside the uterus) affects ~ 176 million women worldwide and can lead to debilitating pelvic pain. Three subtypes of endometriosis exist, with ~ 80% of women having superficial peritoneal endometriosis (SPE). Endometriosis is diagnosed by laparoscopy and, if SPE is found, gynaecologists usually remove it surgically. However, many women get limited pain relief from surgical removal of SPE. We plan to undertake a future large trial where women who have only SPE found at initial laparoscopy are randomly allocated to have surgical removal (excision or ablation) of SPE, or not. Ultimately, we want to determine whether surgical removal improves overall symptoms and quality of life, or whether surgery is of no benefit, exacerbates symptoms, or even causes harm. The primary objective of this feasibility study is to determine what proportion of women with suspected SPE undergoing diagnostic laparoscopy will agree to randomisation. The secondary objectives are to determine if there are differences in key prognostic parameters between eligible women that agree to be randomised and those that decline; how many women having laparoscopy for investigation of chronic pelvic pain are eligible for the trial; the range of treatment effects and variability in outcomes and the most acceptable methods of recruitment, randomisation and assessment tools. Methods: We will recruit up to 90 women with suspected SPE undergoing diagnostic laparoscopy over a 9-month recruitment period in four Scottish hospitals and randomise them 1:1 to either diagnostic laparoscopy alone (with a sham port to achieve blinding of the allocation) or surgical removal of endometriosis. Baseline characteristics, e.g. age, index of social deprivation, ethnicity, and intensity/duration of pain will be collected. Participants will be followed up by online questionnaires assessing pain, physical and emotional function at baseline, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months. Discussion: Recruitment to a randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of surgery for endometriosis may be challenging because of preconceived ideas about treatment success amongst patients and clinicians. We have designed this study to assess feasibility of recruitment and to inform the design of our future definitive trial. Trial registration: ClincicalTrials.gov, NCT04081532 Status: Recruiting

Mitigating slipping-related mortality from purse seine fisheries for small pelagic fish: case studies from European Atlantic waters

The release of unwanted catches (UWC) from purse seines, while the catch is still in the water, is known as “slipping”. Once thought to be a benign process, compared to discarding UWC overboard from the fishing vessel, it is now recognised that “slipping” can lead to significant mortality in the released fish if done inappropriately. In this chapter, we examine purse seining and slipping operations, and discuss what drives slipping and potential mitigation measures to reduce slipping mortality. We use three examples of purse seine fisheries for small pelagic species in the North-east Atlantic; from Norway, Portugal and Spain. The ideal solution (identifying and avoiding UWC before the net is set) requires the development of tools to enable fishers to better characterise target schools in terms of key selection criteria, e.g., with respect to species, individual size and catch biomass. Such tools are being developed, based primarily on hydro-acoustic technology. However, some UWC in purse seine catches are inevitable, and operational improvements in slipping practices have been shown to significantly reduce stress and mortality in the released UWC. We conclude with a discussion on the challenges currently facing the implementation of the European Union (EU) Landing Obligation with regards to minimising slipping related mortality.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Association between Plasma Antibody Response and Protection in Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss Immersion Vaccinated against Yersinia ruckeri

A key hallmark of the vertebrate adaptive immune system is the generation of antigen-specific antibodies from B cells. Fish are the most primitive gnathostomes (jawed vertebrates) possessing an adaptive immune system. Vaccination of rainbow trout against enteric redmouth disease (ERM) by immersion in Yersinia ruckeri bacterin confers a high degree of protection to the fish. The immune mechanisms responsible for protection may comprise both cellular and humoral elements but the role of specific immunoglobulins in this system has been questioned and not previously described. The present study demonstrates significant increase in plasma antibody titers following immersion vaccination and significantly reduced mortality during Y. ruckeri challenge

Involvement of Noradrenergic Neurotransmission in the Stress- but not Cocaine-Induced Reinstatement of Extinguished Cocaine-Induced Conditioned Place Preference in Mice: Role for β-2 Adrenergic Receptors

The responsiveness of central noradrenergic systems to stressors and cocaine poses norepinephrine as a potential common mechanism through which drug re-exposure and stressful stimuli promote relapse. This study investigated the role of noradrenergic systems in the reinstatement of extinguished cocaine-induced conditioned place preference by cocaine and stress in male C57BL/6 mice. Cocaine- (15 mg/kg, i.p.) induced conditioned place preference was extinguished by repeated exposure to the apparatus in the absence of drug and reestablished by a cocaine challenge (15 mg/kg), exposure to a stressor (6-min forced swim (FS); 20–25°C water), or administration of the α-2 adrenergic receptor (AR) antagonists yohimbine (2 mg/kg, i.p.) or BRL44408 (5, 10 mg/kg, i.p.). To investigate the role of ARs, mice were administered the nonselective β-AR antagonist, propranolol (5, 10 mg/kg, i.p.), the α-1 AR antagonist, prazosin (1, 2 mg/kg, i.p.), or the α-2 AR agonist, clonidine (0.03, 0.3 mg/kg, i.p.) before reinstatement testing. Clonidine, prazosin, and propranolol failed to block cocaine-induced reinstatement. The low (0.03 mg/kg) but not high (0.3 mg/kg) clonidine dose fully blocked FS-induced reinstatement but not reinstatement by yohimbine. Propranolol, but not prazosin, blocked reinstatement by both yohimbine and FS, suggesting the involvement of β-ARs. The β-2 AR antagonist ICI-118551 (1 mg/kg, i.p.), but not the β-1 AR antagonist betaxolol (10 mg/kg, i.p.), also blocked FS-induced reinstatement. These findings suggest that stress-induced reinstatement requires noradrenergic signaling through β-2 ARs and that cocaine-induced reinstatement does not require AR activation, even though stimulation of central noradrenergic neurotransmission is sufficient to reinstate

Collaboration with general practitioners: preferences of medical specialists – a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Collaboration between general practitioners (GPs) and specialists has been the focus of many collaborative care projects during the past decade. Unfortunately, quite a number of these projects failed. This raises the question of what motivates medical specialists to initiate and continue participating with GPs in new collaborative care models. The following question is addressed in this study: What motivates medical specialists to initiate and sustain new models for collaborating with GPs? METHODS: We conducted semi-structured interviews with eighteen medical specialists in the province of Groningen, in the North of The Netherlands. The sampling criteria were age, gender, type of hospital in which they were practicing, and specialty. The interviews were recorded, fully transcribed, and analysed by three researchers working independently. The resulting motivational factors were grouped into categories. RESULTS: 'Teaching GPs' and 'regulating patient flow' (referrals) appeared to dominate when the motivational factors were considered. In addition, specialists want to develop relationships with the GPs on a more personal level. Most specialists believe that there is not much they can learn from GPs. 'Lack of time', 'no financial compensation', and 'no support from colleagues' were considered to be the main concerns to establishing collaborative care practices. Additionally, projects were often experienced as too complex and time consuming whereas guidelines were experienced as too restrictive. CONCLUSION: Specialists are particularly interested in collaborating because the GP is the gatekeeper for access to secondary health care resources. Specialists feel that they are able to teach the GPs something, but they do not feel that they have anything to learn from the GPs. With respect to professional expertise, therefore, specialists do not consider GPs as equals. Once personal relationships with the GPs have been established, an informal network with incidental professional contact seems to be sufficient to satisfy the collaborative needs of the specialist. The concerns seem to outweigh any positive motivational forces to developing new models of collaborative practice

Motives and preferences of general practitioners for new collaboration models with medical specialists: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Collaboration between general practitioners (GPs) and specialists has been the focus of many collaborative care projects during the past decade. Unfortunately, quite a number of these projects failed. This raises the question of what motivates GPs to initiate and continue participating with medical specialists in new collaborative care models. The following two questions are addressed in this study: What motivates GPs to initiate and sustain new models for collaborating with medical specialists? What kind of new collaboration models do GPs suggest? METHODS: A qualitative study design was used. Starting in 2003 and finishing in 2005, we conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 21 Dutch GPs. The sampling criteria were age, gender, type of practice, and practice site. The interviews were recorded, fully transcribed, and analysed by two researchers working independently. The resulting motivational factors and preferences were grouped into categories. RESULTS: 'Developing personal relationships' and 'gaining mutual respect' appeared to dominate when the motivational factors were considered. Besides developing personal relationships with specialists, the GPs were also interested in familiarizing specialists with the competencies attached to the profession of family medicine. Additionally, they were eager to increase their medical knowledge to the benefit of their patients. The GPs stated a variety of preferences with respect to the design of new models of collaboration. CONCLUSION: Developing personal relationships with specialists appeared to be one of the dominant motives for increased collaboration. Once the relationships have been formed, an informal network with occasional professional contact seemed sufficient. Although GPs are interested in increasing their knowledge, once they have reached a certain level of expertise, they shift their focus to another specialty. The preferences for new collaboration models are diverse. A possible explanation for the differences in the preferences is that professionals are more knowledge driven than organisation driven as the acquiring of new knowledge is considered more important than the route by which this is achieved. A new collaboration model seems a way to acquire knowledge. Once this is achieved the importance of a model possibly diminishes, whereas the professional relationships last