Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model

Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.Comment: To appear as Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science v2: vectorized 4 figures, fixed two typos, more detailed bibliograph

Symbiont-mediated adaptation by planthoppers and leafhoppers to resistant rice varieties

For over 50 years, host plant resistance has been the principal focus of public research to reduce planthopper and leafhopper damage to rice in Asia. Several resistance genes have been identified from native varieties and wild rice species, and some of these have been incorporated into high-yielding rice varieties through conventional breeding. However, adaptation by hoppers to resistant rice has been phenomenally rapid, and hopper populations with virulence against several resistance genes are now widespread. Directional genetic selection for virulent hoppers seems unlikely given the rapid pace of adaptation reported from field and laboratory studies. Among the alternative explanations for rapid hopper adaptation are changes (genetic, epigenetic, or community structure) in endosymbiont communities that become advantageous for planthoppers and leafhoppers that feed on resistant rice varieties. This review examines the nature of these symbiont communities and their functions in planthoppers and leafhoppers—focusing on their likely roles in mediating adaptation to plant resistance. Evidence from a small number of experimental studies suggests that bacterial and eukaryotic (including yeast-like) symbionts can determine or mediate hopper virulence on rice plants and that symbiont functions could change over successive generations of selection on both resistant and susceptible plants. The review highlights the potential complexity of rice hopper–symbiont interactions and calls for a more careful choice of research materials and methods to help reduce this complexity. Finally, the consequences of symbiont-mediated virulence adaptation for future rice breeding programs are discussed

Varied responses by yeast-like symbionts during virulence adaptation in a monophagous phloem-feeding insect

This study examines the three-way interaction between symbionts, insect herbivores and their host plants during adaptation to resistant crop varieties. We conducted a long-term selection study (20 generations of continuous rearing) with a monophagous phloem-feeder, the brown planthopper [Nilaparvata lugens (Stål)], on several resistant rice (Oryza sativa L.) varieties. Planthopper fitness and the abundance of yeast-like symbionts (YLS) were monitored throughout the selection process. N. lugens populations collected from six regions in the Philippines adapted to the resistant varieties as noted by increasing body size and increased egg-laying. Adaptation was partially through physiological and behavioral changes apparent during feeding: Planthoppers on resistant plants had relatively high levels of xylem feeding compared with planthoppers on susceptible plants. YLS densities were highly dependent on the host rice variety. However, there were no consistent trends in YLS density during host plant switching and virulence adaptation: Compared to densities in planthoppers on the standard susceptible variety Taichung Native 1 (TN1), YLS densities were consistently higher on PTB33 (resistant), similar on IR62 (resistant) and IR65482 (moderately resistant) but lower on IR22 (susceptible). Furthermore, YLS densities often remained the same despite improved planthopper fitness over generations. Our results do not support the hypothesis that changes in YLS density mediate planthopper adaptation to resistant varieties. However, slight reductions in YLS densities toward the end of selection on TN1, IR22 and IR62 may indicate that YLS have lower functional significance where varieties and environmental conditions are constant between generations