NoSEBrEaK - Attacking Honeynets

It is usually assumed that Honeynets are hard to detect and that attempts to detect or disable them can be unconditionally monitored. We scrutinize this assumption and demonstrate a method how a host in a honeynet can be completely controlled by an attacker without any substantial logging taking place

A Strategic Model of European Gas Supply (GASMOD)

Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing demand, and growing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model this market accurately. This paper presents a model of the European natural gas supply, GASMOD, which is structured as a two-stagegame of successive natural gas exports to Europe (upstream market) and wholesale trade within Europe (downstream market), and which explicitly includes infrastructure capacities. We compare three possible market scenarios: Cournot competition on both markets, perfect competition on both markets, and perfect competition on the downstream with Cournot competition on the upstream market. We find that Cournot competition on both markets is the most realistic representation of today's European natural gas market, where suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up at the expense of the final customer (double marginalization). Our results yield a diversified supply portfolio with newly emerging (LNG) exporters gaining market shares. Enforcing perfect competition on the European downstream market would result in positive welfare effects. The limited infrastructure strongly influences the results, and we identify bottlenecks mainly for intra-European trade relations whereas transport capacity on the upstream market is sufficient (with the exception of Norwegian exports) in the Cournot scenario.Natural gas, Strategic behavior, Non-linear optimization, Europe

Russian Energy and Climate Policy Remains Inconsistent: Challenges for the EU

The relations between Russia and the EU with respect to energy and climate policies have been characterized in recent months by two phenomena. On the one hand, the EU has to deal with questions regarding the security of energy supply. The Russian government's high-handed treatment of domestic and foreign energy enterprises operating in the country is irritating potential investors. There is reason to seriously doubt that genuine progress is being made with market economy reforms in the Russian energy sector. While Russia will remain an important energy supplier for Germany and the EU in the medium term, the importance of other crude oil and natural gas exporters, including some North African countries, is likely to grow. On the other hand, it can be noted positively that Russia (in response to intense pressure from the EU) has ratified the Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, enabling the protocol to enter into force in February 2005. But Russia is expected to withhold emissions permits for strategic reasons, i.e. in order to allow the price of CO2 certificates to rise. The value of the CO2 emissions permits allocated to Russia under the Kyoto Protocol could earn the country a revenue of up to 30 billion euro. However, whether this will actually happen will also depend on the National Allocation Plans of the EU member states.

COALMOD-World: A Model to Assess International Coal Markets until 2030

Coal continues to be an important fuel in many countries' energy mix and, despite the climate change concerns, it is likely to maintain this position for the next decades. In this paper a numerical model is developed to investigate the evolution of the international market for steam coal, the coal type used for electricity generation. The main focus is on future trade ows and investments in production and transport infrastructure until 2030. "COALMOD-World" is an equilibrium model, formulated in the complementarity format. It includes all major steam coal exporting and importing countries and represents the international trade as one globalized market. Some suppliers of coal are at the same time major consumers, such as the USA and China. Therefore, domestic markets are also included in the model to analyze their interaction with the international market. Because of the different qualities of steam coal, we include different heating values depending on the origin of the coal. At the same time we observe the mass-specific constraints on production, transport and export capacity. The time horizon of our analysis is until 2030, in 5-year steps. Production costs change endogenously over time. Moreover, endogenous investments are included based on a net present value optimization approach and and the shadow prices of capacities constraints. Investments can be carried out in production, inland freight capacities (rail in most countries), and export terminals. The paper finishes with an application of the model to a base case scenario and suggestions for alternative scenarios.coal, energy, numerical modeling, investments, international trade

Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately withhold production. The results shows that compared to a Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide on gas exporting countries supplies is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America, but non-GEC countries increase production by a mere 10%.natural gas, trade, cartel, collusion, World Gas Model

Finding Order in Chaos: A Novel Data Augmentation Method for Time Series in Contrastive Learning

The success of contrastive learning is well known to be dependent on data augmentation. Although the degree of data augmentations has been well controlled by utilizing pre-defined techniques in some domains like vision, time-series data augmentation is less explored and remains a challenging problem due to the complexity of the data generation mechanism, such as the intricate mechanism involved in the cardiovascular system. Moreover, there is no widely recognized and general time-series augmentation method that can be applied across different tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel data augmentation method for quasi-periodic time-series tasks that aims to connect intra-class samples together, and thereby find order in the latent space. Our method builds upon the well-known mixup technique by incorporating a novel approach that accounts for the periodic nature of non-stationary time-series. Also, by controlling the degree of chaos created by data augmentation, our method leads to improved feature representations and performance on downstream tasks. We evaluate our proposed method on three time-series tasks, including heart rate estimation, human activity recognition, and cardiovascular disease detection. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art methods show that the proposed approach outperforms prior works on optimal data generation and known data augmentation techniques in the three tasks, reflecting the effectiveness of the presented method. Source code: https://github.com/eth-siplab/Finding_Order_in_ChaosComment: To be published in the Proceedings of NeurIPS 202

Höhere Sicherheit der europäischen Erdgasversorgung durch Öffnung und Integration der Märkte

Die Sicherheit der europäischen Erdgasversorgung kann durch die konsequente Vollendung des europäischen Binnenmarktes erheblich gesteigert werden; Europa sollte in der Liberalisierung dem Vorbild der Vereinigten Staaten folgen. Russland kommt zwar auch künftig eine gewisse Bedeutung bei der europäischen Erdgasversorgung zu, jedoch nimmt sein strategisches Gewicht aufgrund des sich globalisierenden Handels mit Flüssiggas (LNG) ab. Der freie Zugang zu Erdgaspipelines und -speichern sowie deren Ausbau sind weitere wesentliche Maßnahmen zur Stärkung der europäischen Versorgungssicherheit.Security of supply, Energy market liberalization, Natural gas, European integration

The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model

In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios: i) the emergence of large volumes of unconventional North American natural gas reserves, such as shale gas; ii) on the contrary, tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas reserves in the world; and iii) the impact of CO2-constraints and the emergence of a competing environmental friendly "backstop technology". Regional scenarios that have a global impact are: iv) the full halt of Russian and Caspian natural gas exports to Western Europe; v) sharply constrained production and export activities in the Arab Gulf; vi) heavily increasing demand for natural gas in China and India; and finally vii) constraints on liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development on the US Pacific Coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, and prices between the scenarios. Investments in pipelines, LNG terminals and storage are also affected. However, overall the world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions with natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk.Natural gas, investments, reserves, climate policy