313 research outputs found
How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study
of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used
is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59
billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that
forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation
infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and
economic risks. Such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and
decision makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. For nine out
of ten rail projects passenger forecasts are overestimated; average
overestimation is 106 percent. This results in large benefit shortfalls for
rail projects. For half of all road projects the difference between actual and
forecasted traffic is more than plus/minus 20 percent. Forecasts have not
become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills
for arriving at accurate demand forecasts have improved over time, as often
claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. The causes of
inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with
political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is
transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to
change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. The
article shows how planners may help achieve this.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1302.2544, arXiv:1303.6571,
arXiv:1302.364
Det civiliserede kaos
Maskerade-motivet iflg. Ludvig Holberg, Vilhelm Andersen og Carl Nielse
Kongen og Narren
Symbol, teatralitet, spektakularitet i barokkens teate
Quasi per caso un anarchico. Dario Fo fra Arlecchino e avanguardia
Bent Holm’s paper analyzes a famous work by Dario Fo, Accidental Death of an Anarchist, which was staged in 1970. The play deals with an event that actually happened the previous year: Pino Pinelli’s death while he was in custody at the police headquarters in Milan. One of Holm’s fundamental contentions is that Fo’s political denunciation is not sufficient to explain the success of the performance. Rather, it must be sought at deeper levels than strictly ideological ones
Don Juan, Misantropen, Tartuffe: Koncept, kritik, optik - Refleksioner i et krydsfelt mellem recension og dramaturgi
Der skyller en mindre bølge af Molière-opsætninger hen over sæsonen: Don Juan på Grønnegårdsteatret, Misantropen på Det Kgl. Teater, Den indbildt syge på Folketeatret, Tartuffe på Århus Teater. De spænder tilsammen over et stort register af komedieskriverens repertoire: tragikomedie, karakterkomedie, farce; vers og prosa. Spørgsmålet er så, hvordan mangfoldigheden i tekst-partiturerne foldes ud på samtidens scenei forhold til den grundlæggende musikalitet, der er et særkende i denne dramatikers sociale, psykologiske og emotionelle instrumenteringer; hvilke kunstneriske strategier anvendes for at få hvilke klange frem
Konceptet frem for alt – dogme’ forbehold! Tendenser i nyere Ibsen-iscenesættelser
Bent Holm diskuterer i Konceptet frem for alt – dogme’ forbehold relationen mellem det tekstlige og det performative hos Ibsen med opsætninger af Et dukkehjem som eksempel. Han tager afsæt i en kritik af, hvad han kalder lejrtænkningen: enten synspunktet at teksten har en betydning i sig selv, som skal forløses, eller at teksten er en perifer komponent i iscenesætterens ide (koncept). I stedet taler han for at forholde sig bevidst til tilskuerens meningsdannelse, som sker ud fra mødet mellem tekst, kontekst og iscenesættelse. Mens Thomas Ostermeiers Nora pĂĄ SchaubĂĽhne 2002 med sit entydige koncept bliver en forfladigelse af Ibsen ifølge Holm, formĂĄr Peter Reichhardts Et dukkehjem pĂĄ Mungo Park Teatret samme ĂĄr at transponere kompleksiteten i Ibsens tekst over i andre sceniske registre end tekstens. 
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