Age, gender and disability predict future disability in older people: the Rotterdam Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To develop a prediction model that predicts disability in community-dwelling older people. Insight in the predictors of disability is needed to target preventive strategies for people at increased risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were obtained from the Rotterdam Study, including subjects of 55 years and over. Subjects who had complete data for sociodemographic factors, life style variables, health conditions, disability status at baseline and complete data for disability at follow-up were included in the analysis. Disability was expressed as a Disability Index (DI) measured with the Health Assessment Questionnaire.</p> <p>We used a multivariable polytomous logistic regression to derive a basic prediction model and an extended prediction model. Finally we developed readily applicable score charts for the calculation of outcome probabilities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 5027 subjects included, 49% had no disability, 18% had mild disability, 16% had severe disability and 18% had deceased at follow-up after six years. The strongest predictors were age and prior disability. The contribution of other predictors was relatively small. The discriminative ability of the basic model was high; the extended model did not enhance predictive ability.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>As prior disability status predicts future disability status, interventive strategies should be aimed at preventing disability in the first place.</p

Prediction of 90-day mortality in older patients after discharge from an emergency department: a retrospective follow-up study

Background: Older people frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and have a high risk of poor outcome as compared to their younger counterparts. Our aim was to study routinely collected clinical parameters as predictors of 90-day mortality in older patients attending our ED. Methods: We conducted a retrospective follow-up study at the Leiden University Medical Center (The Netherlands) among patients aged 70 years or older attending the ED in 2012. Predictors were age, gender, time and way of arrival, presenting complaint, consulting medical specialty, vital signs, pain score and laboratory testing. Cox regression analyses were performed to analyse the association between these predictors and 90-day mortality. Results: Three thousand two hundred one unique patients were eligible for inclusion. Ninety-day mortality was 10.5 % for the total group. Independent predictors of mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.04-1.08), referral from another hospital (HR 2.74, 95 % CI 1.22-6.11), allocation to a non-surgical specialty (HR: 1.55, 95 % CI 1.13-2.14), increased respiration rate (HR up to 2.21, 95 % CI 1.25-3.92), low oxygen saturation (HR up to 1.96, 95 % CI 1.19-3.23), hypothermia (HR 2.27, 95 % CI 1.28-4.01), fever (HR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.24-0.75), high pain score (HR 1.55, 95 % CI 1.03-2.32) and the indication to perform laboratory testing (HR 3.44, 95 % CI 2.13-5.56). Conclusions: Routinely collected parameters at the ED can predict 90-day mortality in older patients presenting to the ED. This study forms the first step towards creating a new and simple screening tool to predict and improve health outcome in acutely presenting older patients

Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

© 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

Recurrent and Founder Mutations in the Netherlands: the Long-QT Syndrome

Background and objective The long-QT syndrome (LQTS) is associated with premature sudden cardiac deaths affecting whole families and is caused by mutations in genes encoding for cardiac proteins. When the same mutation is found in different families (recurrent mutations), this may imply either a common ancestor (founder) or multiple de novo mutations. We aimed to review recurrent mutations in patients with LQTS. Methods By use of our databases, we investigated the number of mutations that were found recurrently (at least three times) in LQT type 1-3 patients in the Netherlands. We studied familial links in the apparently unrelated probands, and we visualised the geographical distribution of these probands. Our results were compared with published literature of founder effects in LQTS outside the Netherlands. Results We counted 14 recurrent LQT mutations in the Netherlands. There are 326 identified carriers of one of these mutations. For three of these mutations, familial links were found between apparently unrelated probands. Conclusion Whereas true LQT founder mutations are described elsewhere in the world, we cannot yet demonstrate a real founder effect of these recurrent mutations in the Netherlands. Further studies on the prevalence of these mutations are indicated, and haplotype-sharing of the mutation carriers is pertinent to provide more evidence for founder mutation-based LQTS pathology in our countr

Strings on Bubbling Geometries

We study gauge theory operators which take the form of a product of a trace with a Schur polynomial, and their string theory duals. These states represent strings excited on bubbling AdS geometries which are dual to the Schur polynomials. These geometries generically take the form of multiple annuli in the phase space plane. We study the coherent state wavefunction of the lattice, which labels the trace part of the operator, for a general Young tableau and their dual description on the droplet plane with a general concentric ring pattern. In addition we identify a density matrix over the coherent states on all the geometries within a fixed constraint. This density matrix may be used to calculate the entropy of a given ensemble of operators. We finally recover the BMN string spectrum along the geodesic near any circle from the ansatz of the coherent state wavefunction.Comment: 41 pages, 12 figures, published version in JHE

The Rotterdam Scan Study: design and update up to 2012

Neuroimaging plays an important role in etiologic research on neurological diseases in the elderly. The Rotterdam Scan Study was initiated as part of the ongoing Rotterdam Study with the aim to unravel causes of neurological disease by performing neuroimaging in a population-based longitudinal setting. In 1995 and 1999 random subsets of the Rotterdam Study underwent neuroimaging, whereas from 2005 onwards MRI has been implemented into the core protocol of the Rotterdam Study. In this paper, we discuss the background and rationale of the Rotterdam Scan Study. We also describe the imaging protocol and post-processing techniques, and highlight the main findings to date. Finally, we make recommendations for future research, which will also be the main focus of investigation in the Rotterdam Scan Study