Rent indices for housing in West Germany 1985 to 1998

In several studies, hedonic methods have been used successfully for the ex post assessment of the accuracy of inflation measurement. Most of those studies relate to high-tech products, with respect to which traditional methods of compiling price indices often fail. We apply hedonic methods to rental housing services, which display less quality progress. However, as German households devote about 10 % of their total expenditure to rented housing services, even a small bias in this field might induce a substantial distortion in overall inflation measurement. On the basis of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we perform a hedonic analysis of housing rents and compile different price indices. Overall, we conclude that there is some evidence of an understatement of rent inflation in the official rent index for West Germany at the beginning of the 1990s. -- Hedonische Methoden wurden in einer Reihe von Studien erfolgreich für die ex post Analyse der Genauigkeit der Inflationsmessung verwendet. Die meisten dieser Studien beziehen sich auf High-tech Produkte, bei denen traditionelle Methoden zur Berechnung von Preisindizes oftmals versagen. Wir wenden hedonische Methoden auf Mieten für Wohnungen an. Dort ist der Qualitätsfortschritt weniger stark. Da aber die privaten Haushalte in Deutschland rund 10 % ihres Budgets für Mieten ausgeben, könnte selbst eine kleine Verzerrung in diesem Bereich die Genauigkeit der Inflationsmessung insgesamt empfindlich stören. Auf Grundlage von Daten des Sozioökonomischen Panels schätzen wir hedonische Gleichungen für Wohnungsmieten und berechnen verschiedene Indizes. Insgesamt kommen wir zu dem Ergebnis, dass es in Westdeutschland Anfang der neunziger Jahre Hinweise auf eine Unterschätzung des Mietenanstiegs durch den offiziellen Mietenindex gab.Consumer Price Index,hedonics,housing,matched models

On adaptive posterior concentration rates

We investigate the problem of deriving posterior concentration rates under different loss functions in nonparametric Bayes. We first provide a lower bound on posterior coverages of shrinking neighbourhoods that relates the metric or loss under which the shrinking neighbourhood is considered, and an intrinsic pre-metric linked to frequentist separation rates. In the Gaussian white noise model, we construct feasible priors based on a spike and slab procedure reminiscent of wavelet thresholding that achieve adaptive rates of contraction under $L^2$ or $L^{\infty}$ metrics when the underlying parameter belongs to a collection of H\"{o}lder balls and that moreover achieve our lower bound. We analyse the consequences in terms of asymptotic behaviour of posterior credible balls as well as frequentist minimax adaptive estimation. Our results are appended with an upper bound for the contraction rate under an arbitrary loss in a generic regular experiment. The upper bound is attained for certain sieve priors and enables to extend our results to density estimation.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1341 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation

We analyse the adjustment of retail and services prices in a period of low inflation, using a set of individual price data from the German Consumer Price Index that covers the years 1998 to 2003. We strong find evidence of time- and statedependent price adjustment. Most importantly, the differences in “unconditional” sectoral price flexibility are found to be linked to input price volatility. JEL Classification: E31, D43, L11consumer price index, Germany, price flexibility, price rigidity

Warum die Nachfrage nach ethisch-ökologischen Geldanlagen so rasant steigt : zu Chancen und Grenzen nachhaltiger Fonds

Wie uns die Finanzkrise lehrt, leben wir in einem Wirtschaftssystem, in dem das Geldkapital Vorrang hat vor allen anderen Werten wie vor Natur, Mensch, Arbeit und Gemeinwohl. Die dadurch hervorgerufenen Schäden regen die Menschen in unserer Gesellschaft dazu an, Ideen im Interesse einer zukunftsfähigen Marktwirtschaft zu testen. Die ethisch-ökologische Geldanlage wird dafür als eine Möglichkeit angesehen

Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation

We analyse the adjustment of retail and services prices in a period of low inflation, using a set of individual price data from the German Consumer Price Index which covers the years 1998 to 2003. We strong find evidence of time- and state-dependent price adjustment. Most importantly, the differences in ?unconditional? sectoral price flexibility are found to be linked to input price volatility. --price rigidity,price flexibility,Consumer Price Index,Germany

Nonparametric estimation of the volatility under microstructure noise: wavelet adaptation

We study nonparametric estimation of the volatility function of a diffusion process from discrete data, when the data are blurred by additional noise. This noise can be white or correlated, and serves as a model for microstructure effects in financial modeling, when the data are given on an intra-day scale. By developing pre-averaging techniques combined with wavelet thresholding, we construct adaptive estimators that achieve a nearly optimal rate within a large scale of smoothness constraints of Besov type. Since the underlying signal (the volatility) is genuinely random, we propose a new criterion to assess the quality of estimation; we retrieve the usual minimax theory when this approach is restricted to deterministic volatility.Adaptive estimation; diffusion processes; high-frequency data; microstructure noise; minimax estimation; semimartingales; wavelets.

Pollen grains induce a rapid and biphasic eczematous immune response in atopic eczema patients

Introduction: Eczematous reactions to type I allergy-inducing antigens are documented in a subgroup of patients with atopic eczema. Yet, the underlying immunological mechanisms are not well understood. Material and Methods: To delineate the effect of native pollen grains on human skin of healthy and atopic individuals we performed patch tests (atopy patch test with native pollen grains, PPT). Nickel patch tests (NPT) served as an established model of contact dermatitis. Skin site biopsies were taken 6 - 96 h after allergen application and investigated immunohistochemically. Results: Histology of positive patch tests showed an influx of mononuclear cells (predominantly CD4+, CD25+, CD45RO+). This influx was detected earlier in the PPT reaction than in the immune response to nickel. A biphasic cytokine response could be detected in the PPT: IL-5 dominated in the early, IFN-gamma in the late phase. The NPT was continuously dominated by IFN-gamma. Dendritic cell subpopulations imitated the earlier kinetics of the mononuclear infiltrate. Discussion: Thus, pollen grains induce eczematous reactions in susceptible individuals. This reaction appears clinically and immunohistochemically similar to the contact hypersensitivity reaction to nickel but follows a faster kinetic and a biphasic course: Th2 and IgE in the early (24 h) and Th1 predominance in the late (96 h) phase. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel