Invasiveness of plants is predicted by size and fecundity in the native range

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.An important goal for invasive species research is to find key traits of species that predispose them to being invasive outside their native range. Comparative studies have revealed phenotypic and demographic traits that correlate with invasiveness among plants. However, all but a few previous studies have been performed in the invaded range, an approach which potentially conflates predictors of invasiveness with changes that happen during the invasion process itself. Here, we focus on wild plants in their native range to compare life-history traits of species known to be invasive elsewhere, with their exported but noninvasive relatives. Specifically, we test four hypotheses: that invasive plant species (1) are larger; (2) are more fecund; (3) exhibit higher fecundity for a given size; and (4) attempt to make seed more frequently, than their noninvasive relatives in the native range. We control for the effects of environment and phylogeny using sympatric congeneric or confamilial pairs in the native range. We find that invasive species are larger than noninvasive relatives. Greater size yields greater fecundity, but we also find that invasives are more fecund per-unit-size. SYNTHESIS: We provide the first multispecies, taxonomically controlled comparison of size, and fecundity of invasive versus noninvasive plants in their native range. We find that invasive species are bigger, and produce more seeds, even when we account for their differences in size. Our findings demonstrate that invasive plant species are likely to be invasive as a result of both greater size and constitutively higher fecundity. This suggests that size and fecundity, relative to related species, could be used to predict which plants should be quarantined.We thank the National Trust and Cornwall Wildlife Trust for access to field sites, Dr. Colin French for use of the ERICA database, and Luke Davis and Cheryl Mills for assistance during data collection. KJ was supported by the University of Exeter as part of its wildlife research partnership with DEFRA's National Wildlife Management Centre. DH was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council grant reference NE/L007770/1

Habitat preferences of hazel dormice Muscardinus avellanarius and the effects of tree-felling on their movement

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Modern management of multifunctional woodlands must address many and various demands, including for recreation, timber production and the conservation of biodiversity. The responses of individuals and populations of protected species to woodland management and habitat change are often not well understood. Using radio-tracking and LiDAR, we investigated the short-term habitat preferences of hazel dormice Muscardinus avellanarius, and their ranging and resting behaviours before and after small-scale tree felling, following a before-after control-impact design. Mean dormouse home range size was 0.51 Ha (±0.07 SE, n = 16) and did not vary between sexes or among sites, though heavier animals had smaller ranges. Dormice preferred mid-height woodland habitat (5–10 m tall), with low proportions of high forest (over 10 m tall), for both ranging and resting sites. Ranging habitats were often located on woodland edges and relatively dense vegetation. Dormice preferentially used yew, rowan and hazel during ranging. There was no difference in the distances travelled by dormice before and after felling, but dormice in areas where trees had been felled showed less evidence of a shift in ranging area than those in unfelled areas. Although the limited response of dormice to tree felling activities has the potential to be associated with increased mortality and/or limited dispersal of individual dormice, the requirements of dormice for mid-successional and edge habitats that arise after tree removal means that a dynamic optimum of felling and regeneration is essential for conservation of dormouse populations.CEDG’s work was supported by a PhD studentship funded by The Forestry Commission and the Natural Environment Research Council

Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population.

Published onlineLETTERDemographic buffering allows populations to persist by compensating for fluctuations in vital rates, including disease-induced mortality. Using long-term data on a badger (Meles meles Linnaeus, 1758) population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, we built an integrated population model to quantify impacts of disease, density and environmental drivers on survival and recruitment. Badgers exhibit a slow life-history strategy, having high rates of adult survival with low variance, and low but variable rates of recruitment. Recruitment exhibited strong negative density-dependence, but was not influenced by disease, while adult survival was density independent but declined with increasing prevalence of diseased individuals. Given that reproductive success is not depressed by disease prevalence, density-dependent recruitment of cubs is likely to compensate for disease-induced mortality. This combination of slow life history and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of a naturally infected badger population and helps to explain the badger's role as a persistent reservoir of M. bovis.NERCUK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affair

The application of statistical network models in disease research

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Host social structure is fundamental to how infections spread and persist, and so the statistical modelling of static and dynamic social networks provides an invaluable tool to parameterise realistic epidemiological models. We present a practical guide to the application of network modelling frameworks for hypothesis testing related to social interactions and epidemiology, illustrating some approaches with worked examples using data from a population of wild European badgers Meles meles naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis. Different empirical network datasets generate particular statistical issues related to non-independence and sampling constraints. We therefore discuss the strengths and weaknesses of modelling approaches for different types of network data and for answering different questions relating to disease transmission. We argue that statistical modelling frameworks designed specifically for network analysis offer great potential in directly relating network structure to infection. They have the potential to be powerful tools in analysing empirical contact data used in epidemiological studies, but remain untested for use in networks of spatio-temporal associations. As a result, we argue that developments in the statistical analysis of empirical contact data are critical given the ready availability of dynamic network data from bio-logging studies. Furthermore, we encourage improved integration of statistical network approaches into epidemiological research to facilitate the generation of novel modelling frameworks and help extend our understanding of disease transmission in natural populations.M.J.S. is funded by a NERC standard grant (NE/M004546/1) awarded to R.A.M., D.P.C., D.J.H. and M.B., with the APHA team at Woodchester Park, UK (lead scientist is R.J.D.) as project partners

Seasonal variation in daily patterns of social contacts in the European badger Meles meles

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Social interactions among hosts influence the persistence and spread of infectious pathogens. Daily 20 and seasonal variation in the frequency and type of social interactions will play an important role in 21 disease epidemiology, and alongside other factors may have an influence on wider disease dynamics 22 by causing seasonal forcing of infection, especially if the seasonal variation experienced by a 23 population is considerable. We explored temporal variation in within-group contacts in a high-24 density population of European badgers Meles meles naturally-infected with bovine tuberculosis. 25 Summer contacts were more likely and of longer duration during the daytime, while the frequency 26 and duration of winter contacts did not differ between day and night. In spring and autumn within-27 group contacts peaked at dawn and dusk, corresponding with when they were of shortest duration 28 with reduced potential for aerosol transmission of pathogens. Summer and winter could be critical 29 for bovine tuberculosis transmission in badgers, due to the high frequency and duration of contacts 30 during resting periods, and we discuss the links between this result and empirical data. This study 31 reveals clear seasonality in daily patterns of contact frequency and duration in species living in stable 32 social groups, suggesting that changes in social contacts could drive seasonal forcing of infection in 33 wildlife populations even when the number of individuals interacting remains similar.MJS is funded by NERC grant NE/M004546/1 awarded to RAM, DPC, DJH and MB, with RJD and the 386 APHA team at Woodchester Park, UK as project partners. Data were collected for NW’s PhD, funded 387 by Defra. We thank Jared Wilson-Aggarwal and two anonymous reviewers for useful comments and 388 Keith Silk for providing the photograph for Figure 1

Social structure contains epidemics and regulates individual roles in disease transmission in a group-living mammal

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Data accessibility: The original weighted adjacency matrix for the high‐density population of European badgers, as well as code used for simulating networks and disease simulations can be found online https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.49n3878.Population structure is critical to infectious disease transmission. As a result, theoretical and empirical contact network models of infectious disease spread are increasingly providing valuable insights into wildlife epidemiology. Analyzing an exceptionally detailed dataset on contact structure within a high-density population of European badgers Meles meles, we show that a modular contact network produced by spatially structured stable social groups, lead to smaller epidemics, particularly for infections with intermediate transmissibility. The key advance is that we identify considerable variation among individuals in their role in disease spread, with these new insights made possible by the detail in the badger dataset. Furthermore, the important impacts on epidemiology are found even though the modularity of the Badger network is much lower than the threshold that previous work suggested was necessary. These findings reveal the importance of stable social group structure for disease dynamics with important management implications for socially structured populations.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Exploring the experiences of having Guillain‐Barré Syndrome: A qualitative interview study

Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a rare inflammatory disorder affecting the peripheral nerves. Although typically there is full neurological recovery, some people continue to experience residual physical, psychological or social problems longer term. Evidence describing the experiences of people with GBS is limited. Objective: We aimed to explore the experiences of people with GBS in the UK. Design: We used qualitative (face-to-face and telephone) interviews to explore experiences of people with GBS. Audio-recorded data were transcribed verbatim and analysed using the Framework Method supported by NVivo 11. Setting and Participants: We purposively recruited a sample of 16 volunteers with a prior diagnosis of GBS of varying age, sex, ethnicity, location, marital status, time since diagnosis and length of hospital stay to maximize differences in experience. Interviewees were required to have been discharged from hospital, able to give informed consent, able to speak and understand English and currently resident in the United Kingdom. Results: The key themes arising from the analysis were as follows: the importance of early diagnosis; the experiences of inpatient care; the importance of active support for recovery; the need for communication throughout the course of the illness; the need for greater awareness, knowledge and provision of information by health-care staff; and path to achieving function. Conclusion: This is the first qualitative study exploring experiences of people with GBS in the UK through their whole illness journey from onset to recovery. The findings contribute to our understanding of the experiences and support needs of people recovering from GBS

CMRnet: An R package to derive networks of social interactions and movement from mark‐recapture data

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record1. Long‐term capture‐mark‐recapture data provide valuable information on the movements of individuals between locations, and the contemporary and/or co‐located captures of individuals can be used to approximate the social structure of populations. 2. We introduce an R package (CMRnet) that generates social and movement networks from spatially‐explicit capture‐mark‐recapture data. It also provides functions for network and datastream permutations for these networks. Here we describe the package and key considerations for its application, providing two example case studies. 3. The conversion of spatially explicit mark‐recapture data into social and movement networks will provide insights into the interplay between demography and behaviour in wild animal populations, with important applications in their management and conservation.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)University of Exete

Stakeholder discourse coalitions and polarisation in the hen harrier conservation debate in news media

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: All the relevant data are available in the Nexis UK news online database.Conservation conflicts are complex and can be deep-rooted, with stakeholders holding entrenched policy positions. The actors involved producing verbal interconnected interactions that form policy debates. Thus, conservation debates can be viewed as network phenomena with stakeholders forming coalitions in support of, or opposition to, certain policies and practices. We used Discourse Network Analysis of print media to investigate the structure and dynamics of the stakeholder debate around the management of hen harriers Circus cyaneus, a bird of prey at the centre of a long-standing conservation conflict in the United Kingdom. We aimed to determine whether the structure of discourse coalitions changed among the diverse aspects of the debate and whether the polarisation of the debate has changed through time. Our search and selection criteria led to the analysis of 737 statements within 131 newspaper articles published from August 1993 to December 2019. We show that, while the discourse network of the overall debate is quite unstructured, actors formed divergent coalitions when defining the conservation problem and its solutions. In contrast, discourses converged around reactions with positive or negative emotions in relation to events and issues of hen harrier conservation. Polarisation among actors has increased over time and peaked in the second half of the 2010s, concurrent with the release of the species recovery plan. Our study highlights the value of analysing discourse networks in conservation policy debates. Discourse networks reveal which aspects of any conservation problem cause stakeholders to converge or diverge and can identify periods of intensified debate that, ultimately, contribute to informing conflict mitigation and resolution processes. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.University of ExeterNatural Englan

Analysis of lifetime mortality trajectories in wildlife disease research: BaSTA and Beyond

This is the final version. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record. Wildlife hosts are important reservoirs of a wide range of human and livestock infections worldwide, and in some instances, wildlife populations are threatened by disease. Yet wildlife diseases are difficult to monitor, and we often lack an understanding of basic epidemiological parameters that might inform disease management and the design of targeted interventions. The impacts of disease on host survival are generally associated with age, yet traditional epidemiological models tend to use simplistic categories of host age. Mortality trajectory analysis provides the opportunity to understand age-specific impacts of disease and uncover epidemiological patterns across complete life histories. Here, we use Bayesian survival trajectory analysis (BaSTA) software to analyse capture-mark-recapture data from a population of wild badgers Meles meles naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of tuberculosis in badgers and cattle. We reveal non-constant mortality trajectories, and show that infection exaggerates an age-dependent increase in late-life mortality. This study provides evidence for actuarial senescence in badgers, a species previously believed to display constant mortality throughout life. Our case study demonstrates the application of mortality trajectory analysis in wildlife disease research, but also highlights important limitations. We recommend BaSTA for mortality trajectory analysis in epidemiological research, but also suggest combining approaches that can include diagnostic uncertainty and the movement of hosts between disease states as they age. We recommend future combinations of multi-state and multi-event modelling frameworks for complex systems incorporating age-varying disease states.NERCthe Animal and Plant Health AgencyUniversity of ExeterDepartment for Environment, Food and Rural Affair