Authoritarian Recall: Mexico's Drug War and Subnational Patterns of Opposition to Democracy

In times of crisis, citizens' support for democracy can depend on how well they think their democracy can address that crisis compared to authoritarian alternatives. Mexico is in the midst of just such a crisis, as its war on drug trafficking organisations has brought an unprecedented rise in violence and, in some areas, posed a direct challenge to the state's capacity to govern. At the same time, its subnational political landscape ranges from vibrant, multi-party states to those with continued connections to a dominant one-party past. We leverage these variations in subnational political context and levels of drug-related violence to examine how the subnational political context mediates the relationship between a crisis and support for non-democratic alternatives. When faced with a violent shock to the system, public attitudes towards democracy depend in part on one's experiences with non-democratic alternatives and whether these authoritarian options appear to solve the crisis at hand more effectively

Leaving the Devil You Know: Crime Victimization, US Deterrence Policy, and the Emigration Decision in Central America

Following a sharp increase in the number of border arrivals from the violence-torn countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras in the spring and summer of 2014, the United States quickly implemented a strategy designed to prevent such surges by enhancing its detention and deportation efforts. In this article, we examine the emigration decision for citizens living in the high-crime contexts of northern Central America. First, through analysis of survey data across Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, we explore the role crime victimization plays in leading residents of these countries to consider emigration. Next, using survey data collected across twelve municipalities in Honduras, we evaluate the extent to which knowledge of heightened US immigration deterrence efforts influenced respondents’ emigration decision. Though a vast majority of these respondents were aware of the stricter US immigration policy regime, this awareness had no effect on their consideration of emigration as a viable strategy

Leaving the Devil You Know: Crime Victimization, US Deterrence Policy, and the Emigration Decision in Central America

Following a sharp increase in the number of border arrivals from the violence-torn countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras in the spring and summer of 2014, the United States quickly implemented a strategy designed to prevent such surges by enhancing its detention and deportation efforts. In this article, we examine the emigration decision for citizens living in the high-crime contexts of northern Central America. First, through analysis of survey data across Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, we explore the role crime victimization plays in leading residents of these countries to consider emigration. Next, using survey data collected across twelve municipalities in Honduras, we evaluate the extent to which knowledge of heightened US immigration deterrence efforts influenced respondents’ emigration decision. Though a vast majority of these respondents were aware of the stricter US immigration policy regime, this awareness had no effect on their consideration of emigration as a viable strategy. En la primavera y verano de 2014, Estados Unidos implementó una estrategia diseñada para prevenir una nueva ola migratoria después de un aumento elevado en el número de personas provenientes de Guatemala, El Salvador, y Honduras, países marcados por la violencia tratando de cruzar la frontera entre México y Estados Unidos. Dicha estrategia estaba fundamentada en el endurecimiento de las medidas de detención y deportación. En este artículo examinamos los factores que conllevan a los ciudadanos que viven en el norte de Centroamérica en contextos de alta criminalidad a tomar la decisión de emigrar. Primero, por medio del análisis de datos de encuestas para los casos de Guatemala, El Salvador, y Honduras, examinamos el rol que juega la victimización por crimen en la intención de emigrar de los ciudadanos que viven en estos países. En un segundo paso, usando datos de una encuesta llevada a cabo en doce municipalidades en Honduras, evaluamos hasta qué punto el conocimiento sobre las medidas implementadas por los Estados Unidos para detener la inmigración influye en la decisión de emigrar de los ciudadanos que viven en estas municipalidades con altos índices de criminalidad. Los resultados en este caso muestran que, a pesar de que la gran mayoría de ciudadanos tiene conocimiento sobre el endurecimiento de la política migratoria estadounidense, éste no tiene ningún efecto en su intención de emigrar