Assessing habitat-suitability models with a virtual species

This paper compares two habitat-suitability assessing methods, the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) and the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), to see how well they cope with three different scenarios. The main difference between these two analyses is that GLM is based on species presence/absence data while ENFA on presence data only. A virtual species was created and then dispatched in a GIS-model of a real landscape following three historic scenarios: 1° spreading, 2° at equilibrium and 3° overabundant species. In each situation, the virtual species was sampled and these simulated data sets were used as input for the ENFA and GLM to reconstruct the habitat suitability model. The results showed that ENFA is very robust to the quality and quantity of the data, giving good results in the three scenarios. GLM was badly affected in the case of the spreading species but produced slightly better results than ENFA when the species was overabundant; at equilibrium, both methods produced equivalent results. The use of a virtual species proved to be a very efficient method, allowing to fully control the quality of the input data as well as to accurately evaluate the predictive power of both analyses

Hospital disaster preparedness in Switzerland.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Hospital preparedness is an essential component of any developed health care system. However, there is no national legislation in Switzerland. The objective of this inquiry was to establish the geographic distribution, availability and characteristics of hospital preparedness across Switzerland. METHODS: A questionnaire regarding hospital preparedness in 2006 was addressed to all heads responsible for emergency departments (ED). The survey was initiated in 2007 and finalised in 2012. RESULTS: Of the 138 ED, 122 (88%) returned the survey. Eighty nine EDs (82%) had a disaster plan. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified an insufficient rate of hospitals in which emergency physicians reported a disaster plan. The lack of national or cantonal legislation regulating disaster preparedness may be partially responsible for this

State of Emergency Medicine in Switzerland: a national profile of emergency departments in 2006

BACKGROUND: Emergency departments (EDs) are an essential component of any developed health care system. There is, however, no national description of EDs in Switzerland. Our objective was to establish the number and location of EDs, patient visits and flow, medical staff and organization, and capabilities in 2006, as a benchmark before emergency medicine became a subspecialty in Switzerland. METHODS: In 2007, we started to create an inventory of all hospital-based EDs with a preliminary list from the Swiss Society of Emergency and Rescue Medicine that was improved with input from ED physicians nationwide. EDs were eligible if they offered acute care 24 h per day, 7 days per week. Our goal was to have 2006 data from at least 80% of all EDs. The survey was initiated in 2007 and the 80% threshold reached in 2012. RESULTS: In 2006, Switzerland had a total of 138 hospital-based EDs. The number of ED visits was 1.475 million visits or 20 visits per 100 inhabitants. The median number of visits was 8,806 per year; 25% of EDs admitted 5,000 patients or less, 31% 5,001-10,000 patients, 26% 10,001-20,000 patients, and 17% >20,000 patients per year. Crowding was reported by 84% of EDs with >20,000 visits/year. Residents with limited experience provided care for 77% of visits. Imaging was not immediately available for all patients: standard X-ray within 15 min (70%), non-contrast head CT scan within 15 min (38%), and focused sonography for trauma (70%); 67% of EDs had an intensive care unit within the hospital, and 87% had an operating room always available. CONCLUSIONS: Swiss EDs were significant providers of health care in 2006. Crowding, physicians with limited experience, and the heterogeneity of emergency care capabilities were likely threats to the ubiquitous and consistent delivery of quality emergency care, particularly for time-sensitive conditions. Our survey establishes a benchmark to better understand future improvements in Swiss emergency care

Modelling habitat-suitability using museum collections: an example with three sympatric Apodemus species from the Alps

Aim, Location Although the alpine mouse Apodemus alpicola has been given species status since 1989, no distribution map has ever been constructed for this endemic alpine rodent in Switzerland. Based on redetermined museum material and using the Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), habitat-suitability maps were computed for A. alpicola, and also for the co-occurring A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus. Methods In the particular case of habitat suitability models, classical approaches (GLMs, GAMs, discriminant analysis, etc.) generally require presence and absence data. The presence records provided by museums can clearly give useful information about species distribution and ecology and have already been used for knowledge-based mapping. In this paper, we apply the ENFA which requires only presence data, to build a habitat-suitability map of three species of Apodemus on the basis of museum skull collections. Results Interspecific niche comparisons showed that A. alpicola is very specialized concerning habitat selection, meaning that its habitat differs unequivocally from the average conditions in Switzerland, while both A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus could be considered as 'generalists' in the study area. Main conclusions Although an adequate sampling design is the best way to collect ecological data for predictive modelling, this is a time and money consuming process and there are cases where time is simply not available, as for instance with endangered species conservation. On the other hand, museums, herbariums and other similar institutions are treasuring huge presence data sets. By applying the ENFA to such data it is possible to rapidly construct a habitat suitability model. The ENFA method not only provides two key measurements regarding the niche of a species (i.e. marginality and specialization), but also has ecological meaning, and allows the scientist to compare directly the niches of different species

Climate‐driven convergent evolution of plumage colour in a cosmopolitan bird

Aim The investigation of phenotypic diversity across geographical gradients is pivotal to understanding the evolution and adaptive functions of alternative phenotypes. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the polymorphism in ventral plumage colouration observed in the cosmopolitan common barn owl group is determined by climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, consistent with Gloger's and Bogert's biogeographical rules. Location World. Time period 1809-2017. Major taxa studied Tyto alba species complex. Methods We analysed the variation in heritable melanin-based plumage colour according to annual temperature and rainfall in 9,110 individuals of the cosmopolitan barn owl, with three distinct evolutionary lineages representing its entire distribution range: the Afro-European Tyto alba, occurring between Scandinavia and South Africa, the American Tyto furcata, found from southern Canada to Patagonia, and the Australasian Tyto javanica, living between the Himalayan Plateau and Tasmania. Results Although the geographical distribution of colour morphs is heterogeneous among the lineages, in all of them plumage colour becomes darker with increasing annual rainfall, indicating a convergent selection of darker morphs in humid habitats possibly to improve camouflage against the dark environment and/or to repel water more efficiently. Moreover, in T. alba and T. furcata, melanization increases at decreasing temperature, suggesting its possible role in thermoregulation. Discussion These findings provide convincing evidence of repeated evolution of similar body colouration patterns at a worldwide scale compatible with the main biogeographical rules, while emphasizing the possible role of melanin-based traits in animal adaptation to climate change

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices