Wind-driven oscillations in meridional overturning circulations near the equator. Part II: idealized simulations

Large-amplitude [±100 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)], high-frequency oscillations in the Pacific Ocean’s meridional overturning circulation within 10° of the equator have been found in integrations of the NEMO ocean general circulation model. Part I of this paper showed that these oscillations are dominated by two bands of frequencies with periods close to 4 and 10 days and that they are driven by the winds within about 10° of the equator. This part shows that the oscillations can be well simulated by small-amplitude, wind-driven motions on a horizontally uniform, stably stratified state of rest. Its main novelty is that, by focusing on the zonally integrated linearized equations, it presents solutions for the motions in a basin with sloping side boundaries. The solutions are found using vertical normal modes and equatorial meridional modes representing Yanai and inertia–gravity waves. Simulations of 16-day-long segments of the time series for the Pacific of each of the first three meridional and vertical modes (nine modes in all) capture between 85% and 95% of the variance of matching time series segments diagnosed from the NEMO integrations. The best agreement is obtained by driving the solutions with the full wind forcing and the full pressure forces on the bathymetry. Similar results are obtained for the corresponding modes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Slower variations in the same meridional and vertical modes of the MOC are also shown to be well simulated by a quasi-stationary solution driven by zonal wind and pressure forces

Chaotic variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at subannual time scales

This study describes the intra- to interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the relative dynamical contributions to the total variability in an eddy-resolving 1/128 resolution ocean model. Based on a 53-yr-long hindcast and two 4-yr-long ensembles, we assess the total AMOC variability as well as the variability arising from small differences in the ocean initial state that rapidly imprints on the mesoscale eddy fields and subsequently on large-scale features. This initial-condition-dependent variability will henceforth be referred to as “chaotic” variability. We find that intra-annual AMOC fluctuations are mainly driven by the atmospheric forcing, with the chaotic variability fraction never exceeding 26% of the total variance in the whole meridional Atlantic domain. To understand the nature of the chaotic variability we decompose the AMOC (into its Ekman, geostrophic, barotropic, and residual components). The barotropic and geostrophic AMOC contributions exhibit strong, partly compensating fluctuations, which are linked to chaotic spatial variations of currents over topography. In the North Atlantic, the largest chaotic divergence of ensemble members is found around 248, 388, and 648N. At 26.58N, where the AMOC is monitored by the RAPID– MOCHA array, the chaotic fraction of the AMOC variability is 10%. This fraction is slightly overestimated with the reconstruction methodology as used in the observations (∼15%). This higher fraction of chaotic variability is due to the barotropic contribution not being completely captured by the monitoring system. We look at the strong AMOC decline observed in 2009/10 and find that the ensemble spread (our measure for chaotic variability) was not particularly large during this event

The North Atlantic subpolar circulation in an eddy-resolving global ocean model

The subpolar North Atlantic represents a key region for global climate, but most numerical models still have well-described limitations in correctly simulating the local circulation patterns. Here, we present the analysis of a 30-year run with a global eddy-resolving (1/12°) version of the NEMO ocean model. Compared to the 1° and 1/4° equivalent versions, this simulation more realistically represents the shape of the Subpolar Gyre, the position of the North Atlantic Current, and the Gulf Stream separation. Other key improvements are found in the representation of boundary currents, multi-year variability of temperature and depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the transport of overflows at the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. However, the salinity, stratification and mean depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the density and depth of overflow water south of the sill, still present challenges to the model. This simulation also provides further insight into the spatio-temporal development of the warming event observed in the Subpolar Gyre in the mid 1990s, which appears to coincide with a phase of increased eddy activity in the southernmost part of the gyre. This may have provided a gateway through which heat would have propagated into the gyre's interior

A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms−1), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term

Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season

Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10–20°N, 20–80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling and weaker surface net heat loss in the north-eastern MDR were the main drivers. Our results are the first to show that air-sea heat flux and wind stress related processes are important in generating precursor positive SSTAs and that these processes were active pre-determinants of the 2017 season severity. In contrast to other strong seasons, positive SSTA developed later in 2017 (between April and July rather than March) compounding the challenge of predicting Atlantic hurricane season severity

Proliferating particle surface area via microbial decay has profound consequences for remineralisation rate: a new approach to modelling the degradation of sinking detritus in the ocean

Sinking detritus particles in the ocean help to regulate global climate by transporting organic carbon into deep waters where it is sequestered from the atmosphere. The rate at which bacteria remineralise detritus influences how deep particles sink and the length-scale of carbon sequestration. Conventional marine biogeochemical models typically represent particles as smooth spheres where remineralisation causes surface area (SA) to progressively shrink over time. In contrast, we propose that particle SA increases during degradation as microbial ectoenzymes cause a roughening of surfaces in a process similar to acid etching on previously smooth glass or metal surfaces. This concept is investigated using a novel model, SAMURAI (Surface Area Modelling Using Rubik As Inspiration), in which the biomass of individual particles is represented as a 3D matrix of cubical sub-units that degrades by progressive removal of sub-units that have faces in contact with the external environment. The model rapidly generates microscale rugosity (roughness) that profoundly increases total SA, giving rise to biomass-specific remineralisation rates that are approximately double those of conventional models. Faster remineralisation means less carbon penetrates the ocean’s interior, diminishing carbon sequestration in deep waters. Results indicate that both SA and microbial remineralisation are highly dynamic, as well as exhibiting large variability associated with particles of different porosities. Our work highlights the need for further studies, both observational and modelling, to investigate particle SA and related microbial dynamics in order to reliably represent the role of ocean biology in global biogeochemical models

FORTE 2.0: a fast, parallel and flexible coupled climate model

FORTE 2.0 is an intermediate-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) consisting of the Intermediate General Circulation Model 4 (IGCM4), a T42 spectral atmosphere with 35σ layers, coupled to Modular Ocean Model – Array (MOMA), a 2∘ × 2∘ ocean with 15 z-layer depth levels. Sea ice is represented by a simple flux barrier. Both the atmosphere and ocean components are coded in Fortran. It is capable of producing a stable climate for long integrations without the need for flux adjustments. One flexibility afforded by the IGCM4 atmosphere is the ability to configure the atmosphere with either 35σ layers (troposphere and stratosphere) or 20σ layers (troposphere only). This enables experimental designs for exploring the roles of the troposphere and stratosphere, and the faster integration of the 20σ layer configuration enables longer duration studies on modest hardware. A description of FORTE 2.0 is given, followed by the analysis of two 2000-year control integrations, one using the 35σ configuration of IGCM4 and one using the 20σ configuration

Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave

The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in 2015: exceptionally cold ocean surface temperatures and a summer heat wave ranked in the top ten over the past 65 years. Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the 1980s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events. For the specific case of 2015, we show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave. Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land

There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically significant) in the TCP rate (mmhr−1) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states) and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr−1, although this falls to 16.5 kmhr−1 over land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs