TIME Impact - a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide, predominantly affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resources are limited. As such, countries need to be able to choose the most efficient interventions for their respective setting. Mathematical models can be valuable tools to inform rational policy decisions and improve resource allocation, but are often unavailable or inaccessible for LMICs, particularly in TB. We developed TIME Impact, a user-friendly TB model that enables local capacity building and strengthens country-specific policy discussions to inform support funding applications at the (sub-)national level (e.g. Ministry of Finance) or to international donors (e.g. the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria).TIME Impact is an epidemiological transmission model nested in TIME, a set of TB modelling tools available for free download within the widely-used Spectrum software. The TIME Impact model reflects key aspects of the natural history of TB, with additional structure for HIV/ART, drug resistance, treatment history and age. TIME Impact enables national TB programmes (NTPs) and other TB policymakers to better understand their own TB epidemic, plan their response, apply for funding and evaluate the implementation of the response.The explicit aim of TIME Impact's user-friendly interface is to enable training of local and international TB experts towards independent use. During application of TIME Impact, close involvement of the NTPs and other local partners also builds critical understanding of the modelling methods, assumptions and limitations inherent to modelling. This is essential to generate broad country-level ownership of the modelling data inputs and results. In turn, it stimulates discussions and a review of the current evidence and assumptions, strengthening the decision-making process in general.TIME Impact has been effectively applied in a variety of settings. In South Africa, it informed the first South African HIV and TB Investment Cases and successfully leveraged additional resources from the National Treasury at a time of austerity. In Ghana, a long-term TIME model-centred interaction with the NTP provided new insights into the local epidemiology and guided resource allocation decisions to improve impact

An intervention to optimise the delivery of integrated tuberculosis and HIV services at primary care clinics: Results of the MERGE cluster randomised trial

Kielmann, Karina - ORCID 0000-0001-5519-1658 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5519-1658Objectives: To evaluate the effect of an intervention to optimize TB/HIV integration on patient outcomes.Methods: Cluster randomised control trial at 18 primary care clinics in South Africa. The intervention was placement of a nurse (TB/HIV integration officer) to facilitate provision of integrated TB/HIV services, and a lay health worker (TB screening officer) to facilitate TB screening for 24 months. Primary outcomes were i) incidence of hospitalisation/death among individuals newly diagnosed with HIV, ii) incidence of hospitalisation/ death among individuals newly diagnosed with TB and iii) proportion of HIV-positive individuals newly diagnosed with TB who were retained in HIV care 12 months after enrolment.Results: Of 3328 individuals enrolled, 3024 were in the HIV cohort, 731 in TB cohort and 427 in TB-HIV cohort. For the HIV cohort, the hospitalisation/death rate was 12.5 per 100 person-years (py) (182/1459py) in the intervention arm vs. 10.4/100py (147/1408 py) in the control arms respectively (Relative Risk (RR) 1.17 [95% CI 0.92–1.49]).For the TB cohort, hospitalisation/ death rate was 17.1/100 py (67/ 392py) vs. 11.1 /100py (32/ 289py) in intervention and control arms respectively (RR 1.37 [95% CI 0.78–2.43]). For the TB-HIV cohort, retention in care at 12 months was 63.0% (213/338) and 55.9% (143/256) in intervention and control arms (RR 1.11 [95% 0.89–1.38]).Conclusions: The intervention as implemented failed to improve patient outcomes beyond levels at control clinics. Effective strategies are needed to achieve better TB/HIV service integration and improve TB and HIV outcomes in primary care clinics.Trial registration: South African Register of Clinical Trials (registration number DOH-27-1011-3846).This study was supported by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under the terms of [Cooperative agreement 5U2GPS000811]. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of CDC.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cct.2018.07.01372pubpu

Evidence-informed policy making at country level: lessons learned from the South African Tuberculosis Think Tank.

BACKGROUND: National Tuberculosis Programmes (NTPs) require specialist input to support the development of policy and practice informed by evidence, typically against tight deadlines. OBJECTIVE: To describe lessons learned from establishing a dedicated tuberculosis (TB) think tank to advise the South African NTP on TB policy. INTERVENTION AND EVALUATION METHODS: A national TB think tank was established to advise the NTP in support of evidence-informed policy. Support was provided for activities, including meetings, modelling and regular telephone calls, with a wider network of unpaid expert advisers under an executive committee and working groups. Intervention evaluation used desktop analysis of documentary evidence, interviews and direct observation. RESULTS: The TB Think Tank evolved over time to acquire three key roles: an 'institution', a 'policy dialogue forum' and an 'interface'. Although enthusiasm was high, motivating participation among the NTP and external experts proved challenging. Motivation of working groups was most successful when aligned to a specific need for NTP decision making. Despite challenges, the TB Think Tank contributed to South Africa's first ever TB and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) investment case, and the decision to create South Africa's first ever ring-fenced grant for TB. The TB Think Tank also assisted the NTP in formulating strategy to accelerate progress towards reaching World Health Organization targets. DISCUSSION: With partners, the TB Think Tank achieved major successes in supporting evidence-informed decision making, and garnered increased funding for TB in South Africa. Identifying ways to increase the involvement of NTP staff and other experts, and keeping the scope of the Think Tank well defined, could facilitate greater impact. Think tank initiatives could be replicated in other settings to support evidence-informed policy making

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS: We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS: Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A cluster randomised trial to evaluate the effect of optimising TB/HIV integration on patient level outcomes: the "merge" trial protocol.

INTRODUCTION: We describe the design of the MERGE trial, a cluster randomised trial, to evaluate the effect of an intervention to optimise TB/HIV service integration on mortality, morbidity and retention in care among newly-diagnosed HIV-positive patients and newly-diagnosed TB patients. DESIGN: Eighteen primary care clinics were randomised to either intervention or standard of care arms. The intervention comprised activities designed to optimise TB and HIV service integration and supported by two new staff cadres-a TB/HIV integration officer and a TB screening officer-for 24 months. A process evaluation to understand how the intervention was perceived and implemented at the clinics was conducted as part of the trial. Newly-diagnosed HIV-positive patients and newly-diagnosed TB patients were enrolled into the study and followed up through telephonic interviews and case note abstractions at six monthly intervals for up to 18 months in order to measure outcomes. The primary outcomes were incidence of hospitalisations or death among newly diagnosed TB patients, incidence of hospitalisation or death among newly diagnosed HIV-positive patients and retention in care among HIV-positive TB patients. Secondary outcomes of the study included measures of cost-effectiveness. DISCUSSION: Methodological challenges of the trial such as implementation of a complex multi-faceted health systems intervention, the measurement of integration at baseline and at the end of the study and an evolving standard of care with respect to TB and HIV are discussed. The trial will contribute to understanding whether TB/HIV service integration affects patient outcomes