Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for parker solar probe in situ observations

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys (<0.1 au). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on two models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between one and seven ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances <0.1 au until 2025, including 1σ uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semiempirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component BR, and a sign reversal in the component BN normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona

Drag-Based CME Modeling With Heliospheric Images Incorporating Frontal Deformation : ELEvoHI 2.0

The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, we present the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) and introduce a deformable front to this model. ELEvoHI relies on heliospheric imagers (HI) observations to obtain the kinematics of a CME. With the newly developed deformable front, the model is able to react to the ambient solar wind conditions during the entire propagation and along the whole front of the CME. To get an estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions, we make use of three different models: Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation model (HUX), Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time dependence model (HUXt), and EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). We test the deformable front on a CME first observed in STEREO-A/HI on February 3, 2010 14:49 UT. For this case study, the deformable front provides better estimates of the arrival time and arrival speed than the original version of ELEvoHI using an elliptical front. The new implementation enables us to study the parameters influencing the propagation of the CME not only for the apex, but for the entire front. The evolution of the CME front, especially at the flanks, is highly dependent on the ambient solar wind model used. An additional advantage of the new implementation is given by the possibility to provide estimates of the CME mass.Peer reviewe

Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys ($< 0.1$~AU). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on 2 models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between 1 and 7 ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances $< 0.1$ AU until 2025, including 1$\sigma$ uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semi-empirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component $B_R$, and a sign reversal in the component $B_N$ normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal on 2020 September 1

Multi point analysis of coronal mass ejection flux ropes using combined data from Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo and Wind

The recent launch of Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo opened a brief window in which these two spacecraft were positioned in a constellation that allows for the detailed sampling of any Earth-directed CMEs. Fortunately, two such events occurred with in situ detections of an ICME by Solar Orbiter on the 19th of April and the 28th of May 2020. These two events were subsequently also observed in situ by BepiColombo and Wind around a day later. We attempt to reconstruct the observed in situ magnetic field measurements for all three spacecraft simultaneously using an empirical magnetic flux rope model. This allows us to test the validity of our flux rope model on a larger and more global scale and allows for cross-validation of the analysis with different spacecraft combinations. Finally, we can also compare the results from the in situ modeling to remote observations obtained from the STEREO-A heliospheric imagers. We make use of the 3D coronal rope ejection model in order to simulate the ICME evolution. We adapt a previously developed ABC-SMC fitting algorithm for the application to multi point scenarios. We show that we are able to generally reconstruct the flux ropes signatures at three different spacecraft positions simultaneously using our model in combination with the flux rope fitting algorithm. For the well-behaved 19th of April ICME our approach works very well. The 28th of May ICME, on the other hand, shows the limitations of our approach. Unfortunately, the usage of multi-point observations for these events does not appear to solve inherent issues, such as the estimation of the magnetic field twist or flux rope aspect-ratios due to the specific constellation of the spacecraft positions. As our general approach can be used for any fast forward simulation-based model we give a blueprint for future studies using more advanced ICME models.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

Quantifying the uncertainty in CME kinematics derived from geometric modeling of heliospheric imager data

Geometric modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modeling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools for space weather prediction. These models assume that solar wind structure does not affect the evolution of the CME, which is an unquantified source of uncertainty. We use a large number of Cone CME simulations with the HUXt solar wind model to quantify the scale of uncertainty introduced into geometric modeling and the ELEvoHI CME arrival times by solar wind structure. We produce a database of simulations, representing an average, a fast, and an extreme CME scenario, each independently propagating through 100 different ambient solar wind environments. Synthetic heliospheric imager observations of these simulations are then used with a range of geometric models to estimate the CME kinematics. The errors of geometric modeling depend on the location of the observer, but do not seem to depend on the CME scenario. In general, geometric models are biased towards predicting CME apex distances that are larger than the true value. For these CME scenarios, geometric modeling errors are minimised for an observer in the L5 region. Furthermore, geometric modeling errors increase with the level of solar wind structure in the path of the CME. The ELEvoHI arrival time errors are minimised for an observer in the L5 region, with mean absolute arrival time errors of 8.2 ± 1.2 h, 8.3 ± 1.0 h, and 5.8 ± 0.9 h for the average, fast, and extreme CME scenarios