Spiral arm crossings inferred from ridges in Gaia stellar velocity distributions

The solar neighborhood contains disc stars that have recently crossed spiral arms in the Galaxy. We propose that boundaries in local velocity distributions separate stars that have recently crossed or been perturbed by a particular arm from those that haven't. Ridges in the stellar velocity distributions constructed from the second Gaia data release trace orbits that could have touched nearby spiral arms at apocentre or pericentre. The multiple ridges and arcs seen in local velocity distributions are consistent with the presence of multiple spiral features and different pattern speeds and imply that the outer Galaxy is flocculent rather than grand design.Comment: For a movie https://youtu.be/5nbtNYDobc

Broken into Pieces::ATLAS and Aliqa Uma as One Single Stream

We present the first spectroscopic measurements of the ATLAS and Aliqa Uma streams from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ($S^5$), in combination with the photometric data from the Dark Energy Survey and astrometric data from $Gaia$. From the coherence of spectroscopic members in radial velocity and proper motion, we find out that these two systems are extremely likely to be one stream with discontinuity in morphology and density on the sky (the "kink" feature). We refer to this entire stream as the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream, or the AAU stream. We perform a comprehensive exploration of the effect of baryonic substructures and find that only an encounter with the Sagittarius dwarf $\sim 0.5$ Gyr ago can create a feature similar to the observed "kink". In addition, we also identify two gaps in the ATLAS component associated with the broadening in the stream width (the "broadening" feature). These gaps have likely been created by small mass perturbers, such as dark matter halos, as the AAU stream is the most distant cold stream known with severe variations in both the stream surface density and the stream track on the sky. With the stream track, stream distance and kinematic information, we determine the orbit of the AAU stream and find that it has been affected by the Large Magellanic Cloud, resulting in a misalignment between the proper motion and stream track. Together with the Orphan-Chenab Stream, AAU is the second stream pair that has been found to be a single stream separated into two segments by external perturbation.Comment: 33 pages, 22 figures (including 1 movie), 3 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap

The effect of the deforming dark matter haloes of the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud on the Orphan-Chenab stream

It has recently been shown that the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has a substantial effect on the Milky Way's stellar halo and stellar streams. Here, we explore how deformations of the Milky Way and LMC's dark matter haloes affect stellar streams, and whether these effects are observable. In particular, we focus on the Orphan-Chenab (OC) stream which passes particularly close to the LMC, and spans a large portion of the Milky Way's halo. We represent the Milky Way--LMC system using basis function expansions that capture their evolution in an $N$-body simulation. We present the properties of this system, such as the evolution of the densities and force fields of each galaxy. The OC stream is evolved in this time-dependent, deforming potential, and we investigate the effects of the various moments of the Milky Way and the LMC. We find that the simulated OC stream is strongly influenced by the deformations of both the Milky Way and the LMC, and that this effect is much larger than current observational errors. In particular, the Milky Way dipole has the biggest impact on the stream, followed by the evolution of the LMC's monopole, and the LMC's quadrupole. Detecting these effects would confirm a key prediction of collisionless, cold dark matter, and would be a powerful test of alternative dark matter and alternative gravity models

Effects of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery: an international prospective cohort study an international prospective cohort study

We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care. We aimed to determine the impact of pre-operative isolation on postoperative pulmonary complications after elective surgery during the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We performed an international prospective cohort study including patients undergoing elective surgery in October 2020. Isolation was defined as the period before surgery during which patients did not leave their house or receive visitors from outside their household. The primary outcome was postoperative pulmonary complications, adjusted in multivariable models for measured confounders. Pre-defined sub-group analyses were performed for the primary outcome. A total of 96,454 patients from 114 countries were included and overall, 26,948 (27.9%) patients isolated before surgery. Postoperative pulmonary complications were recorded in 1947 (2.0%) patients of which 227 (11.7%) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients who isolated pre-operatively were older, had more respiratory comorbidities and were more commonly from areas of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence and high-income countries. Although the overall rates of postoperative pulmonary complications were similar in those that isolated and those that did not (2.1% vs 2.0%, respectively), isolation was associated with higher rates of postoperative pulmonary complications after adjustment (adjusted OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.05–1.36, p = 0.005). Sensitivity analyses revealed no further differences when patients were categorised by: pre-operative testing; use of COVID-19-free pathways; or community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. The rate of postoperative pulmonary complications increased with periods of isolation longer than 3 days, with an OR (95%CI) at 4–7 days or ≥ 8 days of 1.25 (1.04–1.48), p = 0.015 and 1.31 (1.11–1.55), p = 0.001, respectively. Isolation before elective surgery might be associated with a small but clinically important increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Longer periods of isolation showed no reduction in the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. These findings have significant implications for global provision of elective surgical care