Ethnicity in Kenyan rural-urban migration: a test of the information hypothesis

The paper examines the importance of information flows in determining the pattern of rural-urban migration in Kenya. The similarity between the ethnic compositions of the rural and urban areas is used to approximate the level of information linking the two areas. Empirical models incorporating this variable provide a more powerful explanation of migration rates, while at the same time causing distance, which is usually hailed as an important force, to be an insignificant determinant of migration. Secondary conclusions include: (a) urban and rural income elasticities appear to have different magnitudes, and (b) the expansion in the urban modern sector does not contribute to the explanation of migration rates

An empirical study of ethnic linkages in Kenyan rural-urban migration

Regression analysis is used to explain rural-urban migration flows in Kenya as a function of economic incentives and the distribution of potential ethnic contacts linking urban and rural areas. These ethnic linkages not only have high explanatory power but also improve the performances of the other economic variables. The results indicate that migration is highly sensitive to the level of urban formal-sector wages but is not directed toward centres experiencing faster growths in formal-sector employment. It appears that when the urban labour- markets are expanding very slowly, ethnic contacts rather than urban jobs are a better indicator of the probability of obtaining urban employment

Some implications of increased cooperation in world oil conservation

Petroleum industry and trade

Some implications of increased cooperation in world oil conservation

In this article, Stephen Brown and Hillard Huntington combine recent studies of world oil markets and the nascent literature on damage estimates from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to derive cost and benefit curves for the reduction of these emissions through cooperative programs of oil conservation. Their analysis shows that the desirability of extending cooperation in global energy conservation policies is essentially an empirical issue rather than a conceptual one. The current evidence suggests that over the next two decades, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will have an incentive to reduce its oil consumption and the associated CO2 emissions by more than is optimal from a world perspective. During this period, extending cooperation to the oil-importing developing countries may push oil conservation too far.Petroleum industry and trade

Assessing the economic cost of unilateral oil conservation

Power resources ; Petroleum industry and trade

The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks

Sustained energy price increases in the United States have preceded declines in economic activity as far back as 1890. This finding applies to two different historical GDP data sets. It suggests a much longer national experience with rising energy prices that began well before the period after World War Two. This problem emerged well before the US transition towards petroleum products when coal was an important energy source. This relationship varies with the state of the economy and appears less evident during some periods, as in the years following the 1929 stock market crash

The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks: Supplemental Results

Sustained energy price increases in the United States have preceded declines in economic activity as far back as 1890. This finding applies to two different historical GDP data sets. It suggests a much longer national experience with rising energy prices that began well before the period after World War Two. This problem emerged well before the US transition towards petroleum products when coal was an important energy source. This relationship varies with the state of the economy and appears less evident during some periods, as in the years following the 1929 stock market crash

The Rate of Return from the Basseri's Livestock Investment

Surrounding villagers give agricultural products to the nomadic herders in south Persia to sustain them during a very lucrative investment process in raising sheep. However, this livestock herding activity is not as lucrative as it might first appear, once labour costs and risks of losing some of the herd are incorporated

An Updated Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks

The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. The risk assessment was conducted through a series of two workshops attended by leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts who provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. The final results of the risk assessment convey a range of insights across the three dimensions of magnitude, likelihood, and length of a disruption. These conclusions are net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. At least once during the 10-year time frame (2016-2025), the probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month is approximately 80%

How Energy Prices Shape OECD Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from Multiple Decades

New fears about escalating fuel prices and accumulating inflation are raising concerns about the possible dimming of near-term prospects for world economic growth. The role of energy prices in shaping economic growth relates not only to geopolitical risks or environmental taxes but also to a range of strategies that place moratoria on primary energy sources like nuclear, coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Applying a new data set for country-level energy prices since 1960, this study evaluates the effects of energy prices on economic growth in 18 OECD countries by controlling for other important macroeconomic conditions that shape economic activity. Mean-group estimates that control for cross-country correlations are used to emphasize average responses across nations. Averaged across all nations, results suggest that a 10 percent increase in energy prices dampened economic growth by about 0.15 percent. Moreover, some evidence exists that this response may be larger for more energy-intensive economies