Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi
Abstract
Regression analysis is used to explain rural-urban migration
flows in Kenya as a function of economic incentives and the distribution
of potential ethnic contacts linking urban and rural areas. These
ethnic linkages not only have high explanatory power but also improve
the performances of the other economic variables. The results indicate
that migration is highly sensitive to the level of urban formal-sector
wages but is not directed toward centres experiencing faster growths
in formal-sector employment. It appears that when the urban labour-
markets are expanding very slowly, ethnic contacts rather than urban
jobs are a better indicator of the probability of obtaining urban
employment