Forecaster and Emergency Manager Perspectives on Coordination and Communication with the Weather-Warned Public

According to the National Weather Service, each year the United States experiences an average of 1,200 tornadoes that kill about sixty people and injure about 1,500. The goal of this work is to explore the warning communication process from the perspectives of the forecaster (National Weather Service) and the responder (emergency management agencies) and to identify variations and challenges in communication strategies. This research explores the priorities, perceptions, perspectives, and challenges these professionals face and identifies any variations among regions and between professions. Through two different national surveys, these professionals provide insight into the realities of disseminating warnings and meeting particular needs of the communities they serve. This work further examines the perceptions professionals have of weather understanding by the public. Tornado risk and warnings are the primary focus of this work. Findings reveal that forecasters and emergency managers lack confidence that the public understands warnings and watches. This study also found consistency in the frequency and nature of interaction between National Weather Service Forecast Offices and the communities they serve and regional variations were observed in the interactions between emergency managers and the communities they serve

A GIS-based model for urban flood inundation

Modeling flood inundation in an urban setting is increasingly relevant given the magnitude of potential loss and disruption associated with non-riverine, urban flooding. Both complexities in the urban environment and lack of high-resolution topographic and hydrologic data compromise the development and implementation of models of non-riverine flooding in urban areas. This paper describes a case study analysis of an urban university campus to develop and test a GIS-based urban flood inundation model (GUFIM). The model consists of two components: a storm-runoff model and an inundation model. Cumulative surface runoff, output of the storm-runoff model, serves as input to the inundation model. The storm-runoff model adapts the Green-Ampt model to compute infiltration based on rainfall characteristics, soil properties, and drainage infrastructure conveyance. The basis of the inundation model is a flat-water model. This effort uses publicly available elevation data, storm data, and insurance claim data to develop, implement and verify the model approach. GUFIM is an alternative to physical-based dynamic models characterized by accurate results, efficient performance, and reasonable input and hardware requirements. The University of Memphis in Memphis, Tennessee is the study location used here. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A GIS-based model for urban flood inundation

Modeling flood inundation in an urban setting is increasingly relevant given the magnitude of potential loss and disruption associated with non-riverine, urban flooding. Both complexities in the urban environment and lack of high-resolution topographic and hydrologic data compromise the development and implementation of models of non-riverine flooding in urban areas. This paper describes a case study analysis of an urban university campus to develop and test a GIS-based urban flood inundation model (GUFIM). The model consists of two components: a storm-runoff model and an inundation model. Cumulative surface runoff, output of the storm-runoff model, serves as input to the inundation model. The storm-runoff model adapts the Green-Ampt model to compute infiltration based on rainfall characteristics, soil properties, and drainage infrastructure conveyance. The basis of the inundation model is a flat-water model. This effort uses publicly available elevation data, storm data, and insurance claim data to develop, implement and verify the model approach. GUFIM is an alternative to physical-based dynamic models characterized by accurate results, efficient performance, and reasonable input and hardware requirements. The University of Memphis in Memphis, Tennessee is the study location used here. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The role of experience in defining tornado risk perceptions: A case from the 27 April 2011 outbreak in rural Alabama

This research examines the ways tornado experience influences an individuals’ risk perceptions. The work uses the 27 April 2011 Southeastern United States tornado outbreak to investigate perceptions of individuals in three Alabama towns. Surveys administered in Phil Campbell and Hackleburg, two towns that sustained severe losses, are compared with survey responses from Red Bay, a town without sustained loss. The purpose of this study is to determine if direct experience with a tornado influences tornado risk perception. Comparison of survey responses using common statistical analyses suggest that while 40 percent of the study population reports a change in perceived tornado risk, direct experience was less a driver of change than was anticipated. The amplified or diminished perception, in fact, may be based on a more shared social experience. This study found that experience extends beyond direct experience

Geology, geotechnical engineering, and natural hazards of Memphis, Tennessee, USA

The generally flat landscape of the Memphis, TN, area hides a fascinating geologic history. Cambrian rifting resulted in the concealed faults of the Reelfoot rift, currently the active component of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, lying immediately northwest of the city. Memphis also sits within the Mississippi Embayment. Subsidence of the embayment brought about deposition of the thick Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic sedimentary sequence underlying the city. This sequence provides one of the finest groundwater aquifers in the world, the Memphis Sand. Pliocene ancestral Ohio River alluvium (Upland Complex) is an excellent source of sand and gravel for the region. Plio- Pleistocene fluvial degradation by the Mississippi River and its tributaries, in addition to deposition of Pleistocene loess sheets, have produced the subtle topography of Memphis and Shelby County. Memphis geology makes geotechnical engineering design challenging because loess is highly sensitive to disturbance. Exploratory sampling techniques tend to cause disturbance to loess during sampling and sample extraction. Thus, conventional sampling techniques yield variable engineering property test results (e.g., strength and compressibility). The city of Memphis and Shelby County have together become a major commodities distribution center for the United States, North America, and the global economy. The principal natural hazards are the frequent severe weather and the prospect of a repeat of the \u3e7M 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes. These unavoidable exposures to severe weather, urban and riverine flooding, and earthquakes combined with social conditions tend to amplify the consequences of hazard events. © 2012 Association of Environmental & Engineering Geologists

Ethnic Differences in Hormone Replacement Prescribing Patterns

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether prescription patterns of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) differ in African-American, Asian, Latina, Soviet immigrant, and white women. DESIGN: Retrospective review of computerized medical records. SETTING: The general internal medicine, family medicine, and gynecology practices of an academic medical center. PATIENTS: Women aged 50 years or older with at least one outpatient visit from January 1, 1992, to November 30, 1995. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Use of HRT was defined as documentation of systemic estrogen use. The main predictor variable was self-identified ethnicity. Age, diagnosis (coronary heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, osteoporosis, or breast cancer), and median income were included in the analysis. Of the 8,968 women (mean age, 65.4 years) included, 50% were white, 20% Asian, 15% African American, 9% Latina, and 6% Soviet immigrants. Whites (33%) were significantly more likely to be prescribed HRT than Asians (21%), African Americans (25%), Latinas (23%), or Soviet immigrants (6.6%), p < 0.01 for each. Multivariate analysis, comparing ethnic groups and controlling for confounding variables, showed that Asians (odds ratio [OR] 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49, 0.64), African Americans (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.60, 0.81), Latinas (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.58, 0.84), and Soviet immigrants (OR 0.14; 95% CI 0.10, 0.20) were each less likely to be prescribed HRT than were white women. Although women with osteoporosis were more likely to receive HRT (OR 2.28; 95% CI 1.71, 2.99), those with coronary heart disease were not (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.68, 1.09). CONCLUSIONS: Physicians at this medical center were more likely to prescribe HRT for white women and women with osteoporosis. Further study is needed to address whether these differences in HRT prescribing result in different health outcomes