Land Resources and Productivity Potential - Agro-Ecological Methodology for Agriculture Development Planning

Understanding the nature and dimension of the land and water resources for food and agriculture development and the policies available to develop them have been the focal point of the work of the Land and Water Division of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and the Food and Agriculture Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. As we anticipate over the coming decades a technological transformation of agriculture which will be constrained by resource limitations and which could have serious environmental consequences, a number of important questions arise: (a) What is the stable, sustainable production potential of the world? of regions? of nations? (b) How does this production potential in specific areas (within countries as well as groups of countries) compare to the food requirements of the future populations of these areas? potential? (c) What alternative transition paths are available to reach desirable levels of this production potential? (d) What are the sustainable and efficient combinations of techniques of food production? (e) What are the resource requirements of such techniques? (f) What are the policy implications at national, regional and global levels of sustainability? Stability and sustainability are both desirable properties of agricultural land resources development, inter-generational equity as well as of political stability and peace. We hold ecological considerations to be of critical importance in answering the questions posed above. Limits to food production are set by soil and climatic conditions and by the use, and management, of the land. In the long term, any "mining" of land beyond these limits will result in degradation and decreased productivity. Accordingly, there are critical levels of production obtainable, in perpetuity, from any given land area and hence critical levels of populations that can be supported from this area. It is crucial to take account of the physical resource base for potential production as well as the socio-economic aspects that will influence the actual production. The population and land resources study, carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in collaboration with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, with funding from the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, is concerned with the quantitative evaluation of the land resources' food productive capacity on the basis of soil, climate and crop data under specified technological conditions. The methodology and resource data base developed within this study provides a first approximation of the food production potentials and the population supporting potentials for 117 countries in five regions of the developing world. The most fruitful and promising avenue for further work and application of the methodology is in relation to detailed country case studies. The aim of this report is to describe the agro-ecological methodology and specify the data needs, with special emphasis on methodological and data refinements for detailed country agricultural planning studies. The report should be of particular interest and use to institutions in countries considering an ecological--technological--economic approach to the planning of agricultural development

Food Production Potential and Assessment of Population Supporting Capacity - Methodology and Application

Understanding the nature and dimension of the food problem and the policies available to alleviate it has been the focal point of the Food and Agriculture Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) since the program began in 1977. In the program we are not only concerned with policies over a 5-15 year time horizon, but also with a long term perspective to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the food problems of the world. As we anticipate over the coming decades a technological transformation of agriculture which will be constrained by resource limitations and which could have serious environmental consequences, a number of important questions arise. (a) What is the stable, sustainable production potential of the world? of regions? of nations? (b) Can mankind be fed adequately by this stable, sustainable production potential? (c) What alternative transition paths are available to reach desirable levels of this production potential? (d) What are sustainable, efficient combinations of techniques of food production? (e) What are the resource requirements of such techniques? (f) What are the policy implications at national, regional global levels of sustainability? Stability and sustainability are both desirable properties from the considerations of inter-generational equity as well as of political stability and peace. We hold environmental considerations to be of critical importance in answering the questions posed. This report presents the results of a case study of Kenya carried out as a part of the FAO/UNFPA Project INT/513, Land Resources for Populations of the Future, being carried out in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Program, IIASA. The results are preliminary and should be regarded as the first approximation. At the present time a detailed case study of Kenya (Phase 2, FAO/Kenya/IIASA Study) is being carried out. As understanding of the ecological and technological limits of food production is a critical part of agricultural development planning, this report highlights the results for Kenya and the methodology of evaluating agricultural production potential, population supporting capacity and soil degradation hazards. Policy relevance and implications for Kenya are briefly discussed. This preliminary report in collaboration with the Land and Water Division of the FAO is the first of a series on the potential and limits of food production in developing countries

People, Land and Food Production - Potentials in the Developing World

Understanding the nature and dimension of the land and water resources available for food and agriculture development, and the policies available to develop them, have been among the focal points of the work of the Land and Water Development Division of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and of the Food and Agriculture Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. As we anticipate, over the coming decades, a technological transformation of agriculture which will be constrained by resource limitations and which could have environmental consequences, a number of important questions arise: (a) What is the stable, sustainable production potential of the world? of regions? of nations? (b) How does this production potential in specific areas (within countries and groups of countries) compare to the food requirements of the future populations of these areas? (c) What alternative transition paths are available to reach desirable levels of this production potential? (d) What are the sustainable and efficient combinations of techniques of food production? (e) What are the input requirements of such techniques? (f) What are the policy implications at national, regional and global levels of sustainability? Stability and sustainability are both desirable properties of agricultural land resources development. We hold ecological considerations to be of critical importance in answering the questions posed above. This paper presents the results of a recent study entitled "Land Resources for the Populations of the Future" carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Program of IIASA with financial support from the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. The study was designed to quantify potential population supporting capacities of land resources in the developing regions of the world, based on ecological and technological limits to food production. An understanding of these limits is critical to agricultural policy formulation and development planning. This paper highlights policy implications for developing countries

Proto-Plasm: parallel language for adaptive and scalable modelling of biosystems

This paper discusses the design goals and the first developments of Proto-Plasm, a novel computational environment to produce libraries of executable, combinable and customizable computer models of natural and synthetic biosystems, aiming to provide a supporting framework for predictive understanding of structure and behaviour through multiscale geometric modelling and multiphysics simulations. Admittedly, the Proto-Plasm platform is still in its infancy. Its computational framework—language, model library, integrated development environment and parallel engine—intends to provide patient-specific computational modelling and simulation of organs and biosystem, exploiting novel functionalities resulting from the symbolic combination of parametrized models of parts at various scales. Proto-Plasm may define the model equations, but it is currently focused on the symbolic description of model geometry and on the parallel support of simulations. Conversely, CellML and SBML could be viewed as defining the behavioural functions (the model equations) to be used within a Proto-Plasm program. Here we exemplify the basic functionalities of Proto-Plasm, by constructing a schematic heart model. We also discuss multiscale issues with reference to the geometric and physical modelling of neuromuscular junctions

Human vaccination against Plasmodium vivax Duffy-binding protein induces strain-transcending antibodies

BACKGROUND. Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread human malaria geographically; however, no effective vaccine exists. Red blood cell invasion by the P. vivax merozoite depends on an interaction between the Duffy antigen receptor for chemokines (DARC) and region II of the parasite’s Duffy-binding protein (PvDBP_RII). Naturally acquired binding-inhibitory antibodies against this interaction associate with clinical immunity, but it is unknown whether these responses can be induced by human vaccination. METHODS. Safety and immunogenicity of replication-deficient chimpanzee adenovirus serotype 63 (ChAd63) and modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) viral vectored vaccines targeting PvDBP_RII (Salvador I strain) were assessed in an open-label dose-escalation phase Ia study in 24 healthy UK adults. Vaccines were delivered by the intramuscular route in a ChAd63-MVA heterologous prime-boost regimen using an 8-week interval. RESULTS. Both vaccines were well tolerated and demonstrated a favorable safety profile in malaria-naive adults. PvDBP_RII–specific ex-vivo IFN-γ T cell, antibody-secreting cell, memory B cell, and serum IgG responses were observed after the MVA boost immunization. Vaccine-induced antibodies inhibited the binding of vaccine homologous and heterologous variants of recombinant PvDBP_RII to the DARC receptor, with median 50% binding-inhibition titers greater than 1:100. CONCLUSION. We have demonstrated for the first time to our knowledge that strain-transcending antibodies can be induced against the PvDBP_RII antigen by vaccination in humans. These vaccine candidates warrant further clinical evaluation of efficacy against the blood-stage P. vivax parasite

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Recognition of other species' aerial alarm calls: speaking the same language or learning another?

Alarm calls given by other species potentially provide a network of information about danger, but little is known about the role of acoustic similarity compared with learning in recognition of heterospecific calls. In particular, the aerial ‘hawk’ alarm calls of passerines provide a textbook example of signal design because many species have converged on a design that thwarts eavesdropping by hawks, and call similarity might therefore allow recognition. We measured the response of fairy-wrens (Malurus cyaneus) to playback of acoustically similar scrubwren (Sericornis frontalis) aerial alarm calls. First, if call similarity prompts escape independent of learning, then fairy-wrens should flee to playback of scrubwren calls outside their geographical range. However, fairy-wrens fled only in sympatry. Second, if call similarity is necessary for learning heterospecific calls, then fairy-wrens should not respond to sympatric species with different calls. We found, on the contrary, that fairy-wrens fled to the very different aerial alarm calls of a honeyeater (Phylidonyris novaehollandiae). Furthermore, response to the honeyeater depended on the specific structure of the call, not acoustic similarity. Overall, call similarity was neither sufficient nor necessary for interspecific recognition, implying learning is essential in the complex task of sifting the acoustic world for cues about danger