Prediction of Future Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) in Makassar City

Migration from rural area to urban area increases urban population. It increases and needs for settlements, leading to conversion of agricultural lands into settlement areas. Inconsistent land use compared with spatial planning causes change in land use. Spatial land use expansion can be monitored and predicted by modeling. NetLogo application is a software integrated with Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), which can be used to predict change of land use with various complex parameters. The present study used population growth as a parameter to predict change of land use of Makassar in 2050 based on 2017 land use classification map as the start of the prediction. The analysis result showed that the biggest change of land use happens to Settlement class which is 594.74 hectares and the smallest is Water Body class which is 8.76 hectares

A study on experts’ judgement on the future perspective of a country: a case study for China

The future of the environment in China until the year 2050 has been forecasted through a heuristic approach. A questionnaire survey was given to a group of Japanese experts concerning 47 selected indices, including past data and reference data about other countries. The indices were related to aspects of the economy, population, food, energy, transportation, and the environment. The experts were requested to plot a graph for each index up to 2050 based on their intuition. The lines drawn by 60 experts were compiled along with their comments, and the characteristics of each index were analyzed. Different values for the indices regarding transportation and per capita GDP were forecasted by the experts, while rather similar values were obtained for those referencing population and food consumption. The respective fields of the experts were found to affect their perspectives on the future. Economists tended to show rather optimistic views, expressing a business-as-usual scenario, while engineers predicted limited growth but technological innovation

Physical energy cost serves as the "invisible hand" governing economic valuation: Direct evidence from biogeochemical data and the U.S. metal market

Energy supply is mandatory for the production of economic value. Nevertheless, tradition dictates that an enigmatic "invisible hand" governs economic valuation. Physical scientists have long proposed alternative but testable energy cost theories of economic valuation, and have shown the gross correlation between energy consumption and economic output at the national level through input-output energy analysis. However, due to the difficulty of precise energy analysis and highly complicated real markets, no decisive evidence directly linking energy costs to the selling prices of individual commodities has yet been found. Over the past century, the US metal market has accumulated a huge body of price data, which for the first time ever provides us the opportunity to quantitatively examine the direct energy-value correlation. Here, by analyzing the market price data of 65 purified chemical elements (mainly metals) relative to the total energy consumption for refining them from naturally occurring geochemical conditions, we found a clear correlation between the energy cost and their market prices. The underlying physics we proposed has compatibility with conventional economic concepts such as the ratio between supply and demand or scarcity's role in economic valuation. It demonstrates how energy cost serves as the "invisible hand" governing economic valuation. Thorough understanding of this energy connection between the human economic and the Earth's biogeochemical metabolism is essential for improving the overall energy efficiency and furthermore the sustainability of the human society.Chemical elements Embodied energy Energy cost Gibbs free energy "Invisible hand" Value theory Biogeochemical data

Japanische Erfahrungen und Zukunftsperspektiven

SIGLEAvailable from Bibliothek des Instituts fuer Weltwirtschaft, ZBW, Duesternbrook Weg 120, D-24105 Kiel C 184791 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman