The influence of landcover change on global terrestrial biogeochemistry

Discussions concerning global change typically concentrate on future climatic changes promulgated by changes in atmospheric chemistry, most notably increases in the so-called greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4, and and N2O. Although the energy exchange characteristics of the Earth’s surface are an important component of climate models, the idea that changes in the terrestrial surface could also be a causal factor in climatic changes has not received much attention. Sensitivity studies with GCM’s suggested that regional climate can be dramatically changed by severe deforestation. Dickinson and Henderson-Sellers (1988) simulated the Amazon basin with complete forest cover, and then replaced with degraded grasslands. Th degraded grasslands reduced evapotranspiration so much that surface temperatures were predicted to increase by 3-5 degrees. Walker et al. (1995) used the deforestation statistics of Skole and Tucker (1993) and estimated that precipitation had been reduced by 1.2mm/day due to reductions in ET of 18% caused by landcover changes

Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth system and integrated assessment modelling

Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated Assessment modeling communities recognize the importance of an accurate representation of land use and land-cover change to understand and quantify the interactions and feedbacks with the climate and socio-economic systems, respectively. To date, cooperation between these communities has been limited. Based on common interests, this work discusses research priorities in representing land use and land-cover change for improved collaboration across modelling, observing and measurement communities. Major research topics in land use and land-cover change are those that help us better understand (1) the interaction of land use and land cover with the climate system (e.g. carbon cycle feedbacks), (2) the provision of goods and ecosystem services by terrestrial (natural and anthropogenic) land-cover types (e.g. food production), (3) land use and management decisions and (4) opportunities and limitations for managing climate change (for both mitigation and adaptation strategies)

The representative concentration pathways: An overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis

Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I

New observations and new research have increased our understanding of past, current, and future climate change since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014. This Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is designed to capture that new information and build on the existing body of science in order to summarize the current state of knowledge and provide the scientific foundation for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)

Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) Report No. 1

Carbon cycle research is often carried out in isolation from research on energy systems and normally focuses only on the biophysical patterns and processes of carbon sources and sinks. The Global Carbon Project represents a significant advance beyond the status quo in several important ways. First, the problem is conceptualised from the outset as one involving fully integrated human and natural components; the emphasis is on the carbon-climate-human system (fossil-fuel based energy systems + biophysical carbon cycle + physical climate system) and not simply on the biophysical carbon cycle alone. Secondly, the development of new methodologies for analysing and modelling the integrated carbon cycle is a central feature of the project. Thirdly, the project provides an internally consistent framework for the coordination and integration of the many national and regional carbon cycle research programmes that are being established around the world. Fourthly, the project addresses questions of direct policy relevance, such as the management strategies and sustainable regional development pathways required to achieve stabilisation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Finally, the Global Carbon Project goes beyond the traditional set of stakeholders for a global change research project by seeking to engage the industrial and energy sectors as well as the economic development and resource management sectors in the developing regions of the world

Toward an integrated history to guide the future

Many contemporary societal challenges manifest themselves in the domain of human–environment interactions. There is a growing recognition that responses to these challenges formulated within current disciplinary boundaries, in isolation from their wider contexts, cannot adequately address them. Here, we outline the need for an integrated, transdisciplinary synthesis that allows for a holistic approach, and, above all, a much longer time perspective. We outline both the need for and the fundamental characteristics of what we call “integrated history.” This approach promises to yield new understandings of the relationship between the past, present, and possible futures of our integrated human–environment system. We recommend a unique new focus of our historical efforts on the future, rather than the past, concentrated on learning about future possibilities from history. A growing worldwide community of transdisciplinary scholars is forming around building this Integrated History and future of People on Earth (IHOPE). Building integrated models of past human societies and their interactions with their environments yields new insights into those interactions and can help to create a more sustainable and desirable future. The activity has become a major focus within the global change community

A Global Terrestrial Monitoring Network Integrating Tower Fluxes, Flask Sampling, Ecosystem Modeling and EOS Satellite Data

Accurate monitoring of global scale changes in the terrestrial biosphere has become acutely important as the scope of human impacts on biological systems and atmospheric chemistry grows. For example, the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 signals some of the dramatic socioeconomic and political decisions that may lie ahead concerning CO2 emissions and global carbon cycle impacts. These decisions will rely heavily on accurate measures of global biospheric changes Schimel 1998 and IGBP TCWG 1998. An array of national and international programs have inaugurated global satellite observations, critical field measurements of carbon and water fluxes, and global model development for the purposes of beginning to monitor the biosphere. The detection by these programs of interannual variability of ecosystem fluxes and of longer term trends will permit early indication of fundamental biospheric changes which might otherwise go undetected until major biome conversion begins. This article describes a blueprint for more comprehensive coordination of the various flux measurement and modeling activities into a global terrestrial monitoring network that will have direct relevance to the political decision making of global change