Using an International Econometric Model to Forecast Alaska Salmon Revenues

As Alaska prices tumbled in the 1990s, Alaska's Senate Special Committee on Domestic and International Commercial Fisheries requested a comprehensive review of the Alaska salmon enhancement program. As part of this review, a revenue analysis was performed to examine the effects of various salmon enhancement production levels on future revenue generated to salmon fishers working in Alaska waters. The results were then used in a cost/benefit analysis of the state's enhancement program for sockeye, chinook, coho, chum, and pink salmon. This report focuses on the two most important Alaska salmon species, sockeye and pink. Results of the revenue analysis indicate that for sockeye salmon, future revenues would increase if output from salmon enhancement were expanded. For pink salmon, revenues would decrease if salmon enhancement were expanded and increase if salmon enhancement were scaled back. However, a complete elimination of the pink hatchery program would decrease revenues. For both species, there are important regional differences.Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Cross platform comparison of melting curve analysis

PosterMelting analysis of PCR product was first performed on the LightCycler 10 years ago. Now, melting analysis is a standard function on all real-time PCR instruments. Recent advances in DNA melting analysis, including high resolution melting and specialized dyes, have increased the capabilities of melting analysis for genotyping and screening. With the gaining acceptance of melting analysis as a diagnostic tool, there is a need to characterize the ability of commercially available real-time PCR instruments to perform melting analyses. In the current study, a systematic evaluation of melting analysis capability was undertaken employing eight real-time machines from six vendors in resolving SNP genotypes by melting with SYBR Green I and LCGreen Plus

The Application of Farm Programs to Commercial Fisheries: The Case of Crop Insurance for the Bristol Bay Commercial Salmon Fisheries

Under the direction of the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000, the U.S. Congress proposed a crop insurance program for the Bristol Bay, Alaska, commercial salmon fishery. This study examines the feasibility of extending crop insurance to this commercial fishery. The specific focus of this analysis is on differences between this commercial capture fishery and agricultural enterprises in the context of property rights and producer control. Findings show that differences between this commercial fishery and agricultural enterprises would require substantial modifications to existing crop insurance programs. Furthermore, it is recommended that the consideration of extending crop insurance be delayed until this fishery is rationalized.Bristol Bay, commercial fisheries, crop insurance, farm programs, property rights, risk management, salmon, Agricultural and Food Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

PARTICIPATION DECISIONS, ANGLER WELFARE, AND THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SPORTFISHING

We link a stochastic binary choice model of individual decisions to participate in the marine sport fisheries in Cook Inlet, Alaska, with a simulation- based sample enumeration procedure for aggregating estimates of individual angler welfare and a regionally adjusted zip code-level input-output model of regional economic activity. The result is a behaviorally based model for predicting changes in angler welfare and regional economic activity occasioned by changes in the demand for sportfishing that arise from changes in trip costs or the expected number, size, or mix of species caught. The advantages of this approach are that: changes in angler participation are determined by variables that are observable, predictable, or subject to management control; participation reflects declining marginal utility, and substitution and complementary effects across trip attributes; estimates of changes in aggregate angler welfare and changes in regional economic impacts are derived from changes in individual participation probabilities.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The effect of product variety on purchase probability

Regarding the effect of product variety on purchase probability, there exist findings which demonstrate a positive effect of variety for small assortments and a negative effect of variety for large assortments. Despite these results, little evidence exists about the causal mechanism of this effect. We conduct a field study among German consumer electronics customers to investigate the previously proposed constructs of anticipated product utility, anticipated regret and evaluation costs. The results suggest that anticipated regret and evaluation costs play a powerful role in explaining the negative link between variety and purchase probability for high variety assortments. Anticipated product utility on the other hand serves to explain part of the positive causality for low variety assortments. The results obtained give rise to recommendations for the planning of assortment

Impact Analysis of Changes in Fishery Regulations in the Norton Sound Red King Crab Fishery

In 1994, the Norton Sound summer red king crab fishery became the only federally managed Alaska king crab fishery designated as "super-exclusive." The new designation has fundamentally changed this fishery's industrial structure: previously dominated by a highly capitalized, distant-water fleet, it has become a small-scale local fishery. A regional economic input-output model was constructed to evaluate the economic impacts of this "new" fishery on the Nome region. The model results indicate that in 1994 this industry was able to contribute over half a million dollars in income to an economically depressed region of Alaska where few local industries exist and the prospects for developing new industries are dim. Furthermore, model results suggest that the regional economic impact nearly doubles when the contributions of both increased local processing and participation by other western Alaska communities are included in the estimation.En 1994, la pêche estivale au crabe de l'Alaska dans le Norton Sound est devenue l'unique pêche gérée par le gouvernement fédéral portant le label de «super-exclusive». Cette nouvelle désignation a fondamentalement changé la structure industrielle de cette pêcherie. Dominée auparavant par une flotte hauturière fortement capitalisée, elle est devenue une industrie de pêche locale à petite échelle. On a construit un modèle des entrées-sorties économiques de la région afin d'évaluer les retombées économiques de cette «nouvelle» pêcherie sur la région du Norton Sound. Les résultats du modèle indiquent qu'en 1994 cette industrie a réussi à injecter plus d'un demi-million de dollars de revenus dans une région de l'Alaska en pleine crise économique, où existent peu d'industries locales et où les perspectives de création de nouvelles industries sont minimes. De plus, les résultats du modèle suggèrent que les retombées sur l'économie régionale doublent quand on inclut dans les chiffres à la fois l'augmentation de l'industrie de transformation locale et la participation d'autres communautés de l'Alaska occidental

Die Macht des Defaults — Wirkung von Empfehlungen und Vorgaben auf das individuelle Entscheidungsverhalten

Zusammenfassung: Bei der Wahl vieler Produkte ist der Kunde mit Empfehlungen und Vorgaben der Hersteller und Händler (Defaults) konfrontiert. Bei der online-Konfiguration eines Erzeugnisses (z. B. Pkw) ist für alle zwingend erforderlichen Merkmale (z. B. Motor) jeweils ein Default (d. h. eine Ausprägung, z. B. 3.2 Liter) vorgegeben. Zudem geben die Anbieter Empfehlungen bezüglich bestimmter Merkmalsausprägungen ab, an denen sich die Nachfrager orientieren. Obgleich der grundsätzliche Einfluss von Defaults auf das Entscheidungsverhalten unbestritten ist, sind wichtige Fragen etwa nach dem Effekt unterschiedlicher Default-Varianten noch nicht beantwortet. Anhand einer empirischen Studie, in deren Mittelpunkt ein Car-Konfigurator steht, kann gezeigt werden, wie verschiedene Defaults das Entscheidungsverhalten der Individuen beeinflussen. Die Befunde erlauben Rückschlüsse über den Prozess der Herausbildung von Produktpräferenze