The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features

The Colombian economy experienced several shocks in the past ten years. The permanent fall of inflation, the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) and a financial crisis altered the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Low inflation and IT reduced inflation persistence and contributed to anchor inflation expectations. The evidence is less conclusive with respect to the changes of the responsiveness of inflation to domestic conditions (output or marginal cost gaps). Increased competition may have encouraged a higher degree of price flexibility, but a more stable inflation environment may have raised the sensitivity of aggregate supply to inflation surprises. The short-run money-inflation relationship was broken in the presence of low inflation, exogenous shocks to the demand for money and a policy regime that stabilized short-run interest rates. The sensitivity of aggregate demand to the interest rate varied with the indebtedness of private agents and the credit channel was severed after the financial crisis. The IT regime implied a stabilization of short-run interest rates, making the monetary policy stance and objectives clearer to the public. However, interest rate pass-through appears to be incomplete and seems to respond to the varying importance of the credit channel and the general state of the economy.Monetary Transmission Mechanisms, Inflation Targeting, Colombian Economy. Classification JEL:E42; E44; E52; E66.

Política cambiaria y la fijación de metas inflacionarias en Colombia

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza la experiencia de Colombia con una política monetaria con metas inflacionarias tras el abandono del mecanismo de bandas cambiarias en 1999, así como durante dos episodios, en 2003 y 2004, que se desviaron de este comportamiento general. En esos episodios, el Banco Central intervino en el mercado cambiario de una manera relativamente considerable, para influir en la tendencia del tipo de cambio (flotación controlada). Esos episodios se analizan para extraer enseñanzas y resaltar los principales desafíos que encaran las políticas monetaria y cambiaria. A continuación se analiza la justificación de la intervención del Banco Central en el mercado cambiario colombiano. Por último, el trabajo presenta varias cuestiones que aparecen en el debate sobre la política monetaria y cambiaria de Colombia y se propone una idea del contexto político en el que se toman las decisiones de la política monetaria.

PENSION FUND MANAGERS BEHAVIOR IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

The effects of the Pension Fund Managers (PFMs) behavior on the foreign exchange market may be important, given the increasing size of their portfolio and their possible market power. Some authors argue that when big investors like PFMs trade large volumes in the foreign exchange market, they may influence other agents’ decisions, increasing the impact of the PFMs’ actions on the exchange rate. However, when PFMs have market power, they will take into account their influence on the exchange rate and will moderate their trading volume. Hence, there might be a mitigating effect that reduces the pressure on the exchange rate. This paper seeks to demonstrate the existence of this effect under different theoretical foreign exchange market structures.pension funds, foreign exchange market, market power.

Capital Flows and Financial Assets in Colombia: Recent Behavior, Consequences and Challenges for the Central Bank

This paper analyzes the evolution and impact of capital flows in Colombia over the past five years. An examination of the nature and composition of the capital flows indicates that to large extent they have originated in foreign direct investment, especially in the oil and mining sectors. The repercussions of capital flows for the stability and fragility of the financial system are also discussed. Finally, some of the challenges faced by the authorities in dealing with the implications of capital flows for the conduct of monetary and exchange rate policies are presented.Capital flows, sterilization, exchange rate, foreign investment in Colombia, financial system. Classification JEL: E50; F32; F41

Fiscal Policy Restrictions on Inflation Targeting: A Political Economy Approach

Fiscal policy may impose restrictions on Inflation Targeting when Central Bank Independence (cbi) is institutionally weak and society has a real exchange rate target that is highly valued. In this environment, fiscal policy constrains the decisions of a committed, independent Central Bank (cb) regarding inflation. When such a pressure is strong enough to threaten cbi, monetary authorities react by setting an inflation target that differs from the one that would prevail in the absence of those threats. A simple model is used to illustrate this point where the cb takes into account the probability of survival as an independent institution.central bank independence, fiscal policy restrictions,inflation targeting.

INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH IN COLOMBIA: A MICRO-BANKING PERSPECTIVE

Banks and other credit institutions are key players in the transmission of monetary policy, especially in emerging market economies, where the responses of deposit and loan interest rates to shifts in policy rates are among the most important channels. This pass-through depends on the conditions prevailing in the loan and deposit markets, which are, in turn, affected by macroeconomic factors. Hence, when setting their policy, monetary authorities must take into account those conditions and the behavior of banks. This paper illustrates this point by means of a theoretical micro-banking model and shows empirical evidence for Colombia suggesting that some aspects of the model might be relevant features of the transmission mechanism.Monetary Transmission Mechanisms, Interest Rate Pass-Through, Banking Classification JEL: G21; E43; E44; E52.

Interest Rate Pass-Through in Colombia: a Micro-Banking Perspective

Banks and other credit institutions are key players in the transmission of monetary policy, especially when the responses of deposit and loan interest rates to shifts in policy rates are among the most important channels. This pass-through depends on theMonetary transmission mechanisms, interest rate pass-through, banking

Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Fiscal Policy Changes in Colombia

In the past decade the Colombian Economic Authorities undertook a series of measures that reduced the structural fiscal deficit, decreased the Government currency mismatch and deepened the local fixed-rate public bond market. This paper presents some evidence suggesting that these improvements had important effects on the behavior of the macroeconomy. They seem to have permanently reduced the sovereign risk premium, increased the reaction of output to Government expenditure shocks and strengthened the response of market interest rates to monetary policy shocks.Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy and Real Interest.