Trends and cycles: How important are long- and short-run restictions? The case of Mexico

The document presents a test for the existence of binding long- and short-run (common trend-common cycle) restrictions in the dynamics of a set of Mexican macroeconomic variables. These restrictions are imposed in a VAR to decompose the series into their permanent and transitory components. The analysis shows that the magnitude of transitory (nominal) shocks is underestimated when such restrictions are not considered. In addition, we find that the timing and duration of recession and expansion periods are more accurately estimated when the trend-cycle decomposition is conducted with the imposition of cointegrating (long-run) and common feature (short-run) restrictions.

Efecto del gasto público sobre el gasto privado en México

Traditionally, the analysis of the impact of public expenditure on private expenditure has been performed via graphical evaluations and simple econometric exercises. In this document we present a detailed econometric analysis of the relationship between said variables. In particular, we evaluate the existence of a crowding out effect of public consumption and investment on private consumption and investment for the period 1980:I - 2002:II. The econometric results indicate that public investment crowds out private investment in the short-run but complements it in the long-run. In the case of private consumption we find statistically significant evidence of crowding out during the period of analysis.

Fitoplancton en costas occidentales de Baja California en dos temporadas distintas de 1998

Phytoplankton was studied in two different seasons of 1998 (March-April and December), during two cruises along the western coasts of Baja California, in three zones. Two different protocols for obtaining and studying phytoplankton were followed. In the March-April season, phytoplankton had relatively low species richness and was dominated in cell density (up to 93%) by coccolithophorids (mainly Emiliania huxleyi), together with nanoplanktonic centric and pennate diatoms, with abundances ranging from 5.4 103 to 1.2 105 cells L-1. In December, phytoplankton had higher species richness and was represented by larger, chain-forming diatom species, such as Pseudonitzschia delicatissima and P. pungens, which were widespread and numerically significant. There was a relative scarcity of coccolithophorids and thecate dinoflagellates, and densities were between 7 102 and 1.4 106 cells L-1. Hydrographic and oceanographic conditions in March-April were influenced by the occurrence of El Niño and the phytoplankton structure was found to be modified accordingly, with nanoplanktonic coccolithophorids and diatoms being significant contributors to the total abundance. In contrast, post-upwelling conditions might have favoured relatively high densities of Pseudonitzschia and other diatoms in December, 1998. Coccolithophorids have not been previously regarded as important contributors to the phytoplankton abundances in Baja California.Se estudió el fitoplancton en dos temporadas diferentes de 1998 (marzo-abril y diciembre), durante dos cruceros en tres zonas de las costas de Baja California. Se siguieron dos protocolos distintos para obtener y estudiar el fitoplancton. En marzo-abril, el fitoplancton tuvo una riqueza de especies baja y estuvo dominado en densidades celulares (de hasta 93%) por cocolitofóridos (principalmente Emiliania huxleyi), junto con diatomeas centrales y pennales nanoplanctónicas, con abundancias desde 5.4 103 to 1.2 105 cells L-1. Para diciembre, el fitoplancton incrementó la riqueza de especies y estuvo representado por diatomeas más grandes, formadoras de cadenas, que se distribuyeron ampliamente y fueron numéricamente importantes, como: Pseudonitzschia delicatissima y P. pungens, con relativa escasez de cocolitofóridos y dinoflagelados tecados, con densidades entre 7 102 and 1.4 106 cells L-1. Las condiciones oceanográficas en marzo-abril indicaron la presencia de El Niño y los resultados mostraron una estructura de fitoplancton modificada por ello, con una contribución importante de cocolitofóridos y diatomeas nanoplanctónicas a la abundancia total. En cambio, en diciembre, las condiciones de post-surgencia pudieron haber favorecido las relativas altas densidades de especies de Pseudonitzschia y otras diatomeas. Los cocolitofóridos no habían sido documentados previamente como contribuyentes importantes a la abundancia fitoplanctónica en Baja California

An exponential equation of state of dark energy in the light of 2018 CMB Planck data

The dynamics of the Universe is analyzed using an exponential function for the dark energy equation of state, known as Gong-Zhang parameterization. The phase space of the free parameters presented in the model is constrained using Cosmic Microwave Background radiation, Cosmic Chronometers, modulus distance from Hydrogen II Galaxies, Type Ia Supernovae and measurements from Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, together with a stronger bound from a Joint analysis. The cosmological model is confronted with $\Lambda$CDM, observing there is a strong evidence for $\Lambda$CDM in the Joint analysis although the exponential model is preferred when the data are separated. Based on the Joint analysis, a value of $\omega_0 = -1.202^{+0.027}_{-0.026}$ is found for the characteristic parameter presented in the equation of state. Additionally, the cosmographic parameters at current times are reported, having $q_0 = -0.789^{+0.034}_{-0.036}$, $j_0=1.779^{+0.130}_{-0.119}$, and a transition deceleration-acceleration redshift $z_T = 0.644^{+0.011}_{-0.012}$. Furthermore, the age of the Universe is estimated as $t_U = 13.788^{+0.019}_{-0.019}$ Gyrs. Finally, we open a discussion if this model could alleviate the $H_0$ and $S_8$ tensions.Comment: Accepted in Physics of Dark Univers

Sincronización del empleo manufacturero en México y Estados Unidos

It is evident that there exists a high degree of economic interdependence betweenMexico and the United States at the aggregate level. It is not clear, however, that this relationship holds for individual economic sectors. In this document we investigate the existence of common movements, at trend and cyclical horizons, in the behavior of employment in the manufacturing sector for both countries.We find that employment in the non-maquila manufacturing sector in Mexico exhibits a higher degree of synchronization with the manufacturing employment in the U.S. than does the maquiladora sector.We argue that these results are consistent with the theories of economic integration and specialization in production.labor markets, common cycle, common trend.

Gibbs Energy Minimization Using Simulated Annealing for Two-phase Equilibrium Calculations in Reactive Systems

Phase equilibrium calculations in systems subject to chemical reactions are involved in the design, synthesis and optimization of reactive separation processes. Until now, several methods have been developed to perform simultaneously physical and chemical equilibrium calculations. However, published methods may face numerical difficulties such as variable initialization dependence, divergence and convergence to trivial solutions or unstable equilibrium states. Besides, these methods generally use conventional composition variables and reactions extents as unknowns which directly affect the numerical implementation, reliability and efficiency of solving strategies. The objective of this work is to introduce and test an alternative approach to perform Gibbs energy minimization in phase equilibrium problems for reactive systems. Specifically, we have employed the transformed composition variables of Ung and Doherty and the stochastic optimization method Simulated Annealing for two-phase equilibrium calculations in reacting systems. Performance of this strategy has been tested using several benchmark problems and results show that proposed approach is generally suitable for the global minimization of transformed Gibbs energy in reactive systems with two-phase equilibrium

EFFECT OF NECTAR-FORAGING ANTS AND WASPS ON THE REPRODUCTIVE FITNESS OF TURNERA ULMIFOLIA (TURNERACEAE) IN A COASTAL SAND DUNE IN MEXICO

We evaluated over two years the effect of different ant species on the reproductive fitness (estimated as end-of-season fruit set per treatment) of Turnera ulmifolia. Research was done on a sand dune matorral located on the coast of Veracruz, México. The results show that (i) plants associated with the larger ant species (Camponotus abdominalis) produced more fruits than plants associated with the smaller ant species, and (ii) plants associated with ants were subject to lower levels of herbivory, than plants without ants. Consequently, ant presence is not synonymous of plant protection, and the level of protection by ants will depend on the size of the worker ants in a guild of ant visitors. Moreover, when ants were excluded, wasps and bees increased their visits, exerting a higher level of protection than that offered by the smaller ant species. However, the differential effect of wasps needs further attention.Evaluamos durante dos años el efecto de diferentes especies de hormigas sobre el éxito reproductivo (estimado como número total de frutos por temporada) de Turnera ulmifolia. El estudio se llevó a cabo en el matorral de duna costera en la costa central del estado de Veracruz, México. Los resultados muestran que (i) plantas asociadas con la especie de hormiga más grande (Camponotus abdominalis) produjeron más frutos que plantas asociadas con las especies de hormiga más pequeñas, y (ii) plantas asociadas con las hormigas sufrieron niveles de herbivoría menores, que plantas sin hormigas. Consequentemente, la presencia de hormigas no es sinónimo de protección para una planta, y el nivel de protección por hormigas dependerá del tamaño de las hormigas obreras en un gremio de hormigas visitantes. Más aún, cuando se excluyeron a las hormigas, aumentaron las visitas de avispas y abejas, las que efectuaron un nivel de protección mayor que aquel ofrecido por las especies pequeñas de hormigas. Sin embargo, el efecto diferencial de las avispas requiere atención futura