Amnesty, Enforcement and Tax Policy

Amnesties are widely used in society to rehabilitate past sinners, to collect resources, such as library books, that would otherwise be unrecoverable, and to make enforcement easier by reducing the ranks of delinquents. Over the past four years, tax amnesties have emerged as a major instrument of state revenue policy. Twenty states conducted amnesties. Record collections were made by New York ($360 million) and Illinois (income tax amnesty dollars 3.4$100 billion tax evasion problem, now offer an amnesty of its own? What type of federal program would most likely be offered? What would it be likely to accomplish? State tax amnesties have generally bean coupled with enhanced enforcement efforts, a feature intended to preserve the legitimacy of the tan system. The amnesty/enforcement combination twists the penalty schedule, lowering it non raising it later, in that way encouraging prompt payment. With no past sins to hide, future compliance also becomes less costly, hence more probable. Any federal amnesty, we predict, would be accompanied by a strengthening of enforcement. After reviewing the state experience, we speculatively estimate that a federal amnesty/enforcement to annual revenues on the order of $10 billion.

Issues in Sports Forecasting

A great amount of effort is spent in forecasting the outcome of sporting events, but few papers have focused exclusively on the characteristics of sports forecasts. Rather, many papers have been written about the efficiency of sports betting markets. As it turns out, it is possible to derive considerable information about the forecasts and the forecasting process from the studies that tested the markets for economic efficiency. Moreover, the huge number of observations provided by betting markets makes it possible to obtain robust tests of various forecasting hypotheses. This paper is concerned with a number of forecasting topics in horse racing and several team sports. The first topic involves the type of forecast that is made: picking a winner or predicting whether a particular team beats the point spread. Different evaluation procedures will be examined and alternative forecasting methods (models, experts, and the market) will be compared. The paper also examines the evidence about the existence of biases in the forecasts and concludes with the applicability of these results to forecasting in general.sports forecasting; betting markets; efficiency; bias; sports models

Heat transport and flow structure in rotating Rayleigh-B\'enard convection

Here we summarize the results from our direct numerical simulations (DNS) and experimental measurements on rotating Rayleigh-B\'enard (RB) convection. Our experiments and simulations are performed in cylindrical samples with an aspect ratio \Gamma varying from 1/2 to 2. Here \Gamma=D/L, where D and L are the diameter and height of the sample, respectively. When the rotation rate is increased, while a fixed temperature difference between the hot bottom and cold top plate is maintained, a sharp increase in the heat transfer is observed before the heat transfer drops drastically at stronger rotation rates. Here we focus on the question of how the heat transfer enhancement with respect to the non-rotating case depends on the Rayleigh number Ra, the Prandtl number Pr, and the rotation rate, indicated by the Rossby number Ro. Special attention will be given to the influence of the aspect ratio on the rotation rate that is required to get heat transport enhancement. In addition, we will discuss the relation between the heat transfer and the large scale flow structures that are formed in the different regimes of rotating RB convection and how the different regimes can be identified in experiments and simulations.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figure