Economic Comparison of the Farm, Nutrition, and Bioenergy Act (H.R. 2419) to Fairness in Farm and Food Policy Amendment to H.R. 2419

The House Agriculture Committee unanimously passed their farm bill, “Farm, Nutrition and Bioenergy Act of 2007” (H.R. 2419). An amendment, “Fairness in Farm and Food Policy,” H.R. 2419 was announced by Ron Kind (D-WI). The purpose of this Briefing Report is to compare the likely economic impacts of H.R. 2419 and the FFFP Amendment on representative crop, dairy, and cattle farms.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Rotation in the Orion Nebula Cluster

Eighteen fields in the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) have been monitored for one or more observing seasons from 1990-99 with a 0.6-m telescope at Wesleyan University. Photometric data were obtained in Cousins I on 25-40 nights per season. Results from the first 3 years of monitoring were analyzed by Choi & Herbst (1996; CH). Here we provide an update based on 6 more years of observation and the extensive optical and IR study of the ONC by Hillenbrand (1997) and Hillenbrand et al. (1998). Rotation periods are now available for 134 ONC members. Of these, 67 were detected at multiple epochs with identical periods by us and 15 more were confirmed by Stassun et al. (1999) in their study of Ori OBIc/d. The bimodal period distribution for the ONC is confirmed, but we also find a clear dependence of rotation period on mass. This can be understood as an effect of deuterium burning, which temporarily slows the contraction and thus spin-up of stars with M <0.25 solar masses and ages of ~1 My. Stars with M <0.25 solar masses have not had time to bridge the gap in the period distribution at ~4 days. Excess H-K and I-K emission, as well as CaII infrared triplet equivalent widths (Hillenbrand et al. 1998), show weak but significant correlations with rotation period among stars with M >0.25 solar masses. Our results provide new observational support for the importance of disks in the early rotational evolution of low mass stars. [abridged]Comment: 18 pages of text, 17 figures, and 4 tables; accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journa

Financial Impacts of Regional Differences in Dairies

The sensitivity of net cash farm income to changes in selected production variables, output prices, and input costs varies significantly across representative U.S. dairies. Different regions of the country were impacted differently by changes to production and prices.Agricultural Finance, Q12, Q14,

Regional and Structural Impacts of Alternative Dairy Policy Options

Milk and dairy product prices have fallen to their lowest levels in 3 years following the record highs of 2004 and 2005. The large government stockpiles of non-fat dry milk are gone, but threaten to build again as non-fat dry milk and cheese prices decline nearer the support price level. A new farm bill is scheduled to be written in 2007. The Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program included in the last farm bill was only authorized through September 2005. Subsequent legislation reinstated the MILC program through August 2007. WTO negotiations are on-going and could influence U.S. farm programs 1/. Dairy’s role in the U.S. amber box limit of $19.1 billion may necessitate some possible trade-offs with other commodities. Dairy counts about$4.2 billion toward the annual amber box limit, but actual spending only averages about $1 billion (Outlaw, et al). The pressure of low prices, WTO negotiations, MILC continuation, and a new farm bill has created the potential for a number of options and alternatives for dairy policy. This paper examines the regional and structural impacts of 3 dairy policy options: MILC continuation, a target price/deficiency payment program, and an increase in the support price. All three options are designed to spend$400 million in amber box payments per year. The analysis uses representative dairy farms in major milk producing regions of the country developed by the AFPC for policy analysis.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

The Effectiveness of Dairy Risk Management at Managing Income, Revenue, and Margin Risk

With the 2009 milk prices still fresh on everyone’s mind, there has been increased interest in ways to limit milk price volatility. Using SERF, this paper determined some dairies are willing to pay for limited milk price volatility and found a value they are willing to pay using risk premiums.Dairy, Stochastic Simulation, price volatility, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,

What a Difference a Year Makes in the Dairy Industry

The projections for feed and milk prices have changed over the last year. This study looks at how the changes affect the dairy industry. The high feed prices have been trumped by higher milk prices and the economic viability of the dairy industry has improved across the board.Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization,

Including Risk in Economic Feasibility Analyses: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas

The widespread use of personal computers and spreadsheet models for feasibility studies makes risk-based Monte Carlo simulation analysis of proposed investments a relatively simple task. Add-in simulation packages for Microsoft® Excel can be used to make spreadsheet models stochastic. Rather than basing investment decisions on point estimates, investors can easily estimate the implied distributions of returns for uncertain investments and calculate the risk of an investment as well as the probability of success. The benefits of using Monte Carlo simulation to analyze a risky investment are demonstrated using an ethanol plant as an example.economic feasibility analysis, ethanol feasibility, risk management, stochastic simulation, Agribusiness, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

The Effects of Sex-Sorted Semen on Southern Dairy Farms

This paper examines the impact of sex-sorted semen adoption on dairy farm level economics. Representative dairies are used to simulate the financial impacts of moving to this new technology. Key economic, financial and herd dynamics will be compared among dairies to show how the uses of sex-sorted semen will affect dairy farms. All seven of the representative dairies that were analyzed sold surplus replacement heifers using sex-sorted semen. The increase use of sex-sorted semen can have very positive impacts on dairies throughout the Southern United States.Dairy production, sex sorted semen, production economics, scenario analysis, Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics,

Results of the ROTOR-program. I. The long-term photometric variability of classical T Tauri stars

We present a unique, homogeneous database of photometric measurements for Classical T Tauri stars extending up to 20 years. The database contains more than 21,000 UBVR observations of 72 CTTs. All the data were collected within the framework of the ROTOR-program at Mount Maidanak Observatory (Uzbekistan) and together they constitute the longest homogeneous, accurate record of TTS variability ever assembled. We characterize the long term photometric variations of 49 CTTs with sufficient data to allow a robust statistical analysis and propose an empirical classification scheme. Several patterns of long term photometric variability are identified. The most common pattern, exhibited by a group of 15 stars which includes T Tau itself, consists of low level variability (Delta(V)<=0.4mag) with no significant changes occurring from season to season over many years. A related subgroup of 22 stars exhibits a similar stable long term variability pattern, though with larger amplitudes (up to Delta(V)~1.6 mag). Besides these representative groups, we identify three smaller groups of 3-5 stars each which have distinctive photometric properties. The long term variability of most CTTs is fairly stable and merely reflects shorter term variability due to cold and hot surface spots. Only a small fraction of CTTs undergo significant brightness changes on the long term (months, years), which probably arise from slowly varying circumstellar extinction.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures. Astron. Astrophys., in pres