International Migration with Heterogeneous Agents: Theory and Evidence

Zwei verwirrende Fakten der internationalen Wanderung sind, dass nur ein kleiner Teil der Bevölkerung der Auswanderungsländer emigriert und dass die Migrationsquoten mit der Zeit kleiner werden. Der Beitrag untersucht dieses Phänomen unter Zuhilfenahme eines Migrationsmodells mit heterogenen Agenten für die temporäre Migration. Im Gleichgewicht existiert eine positive Relation zwischen der Anzahl der Migranten und dem Einkommensdifferential, während der Nettomigrationsfluss versiegt. Infolge dessen sind empirische Migrationsmodelle, die sich auf Nettomigrationsflüsse anstatt auf den Bestand an Migranten beziehen, missspezifiziert. Diese Vermutung scheint sich durch die empirische Untersuchung der Kointegrationsbeziehungen von Fluss- und Bestands-Migrationsmodellen zu bestätigen

Emigration and Wages: The EU Enlargement Experiment

This paper studies the impact of a large emigration wave on real wages in the source country. Following EU enlargement in 2004, a large share of the workforce of the Central and Eastern Europe emigrated to Western Europe. Using data from Lithuania for the calibration of a factor demand model I show that emigration had a significant short-run impact on real wages in the source country. In particular, emigration led to a change in the wage distribution between young and old workers. The wages of young workers increased by 6%, whereas the wages of old workers decreased by around 1%. On the contrary, I find no effect on the wage distribution between workers of different education levels

Losing Our Minds? New Research Directions on Skilled Migration and Development

This paper critiques the last decade of research on the effects of high-skill emigration from developing countries, and proposes six new directions for fruitful research. The study singles out a core assumption underlying much of the recent literature, calling it the Lump of Learning model of human capital and development, and describes five ways that research has come to challenge that assumption. It assesses the usefulness of the Lump of Learning model in the face of accumulating evidence. The axioms of the Lump of Learning model have shaped research priorities in this literature, but many of those axioms do not have a clear empirical basis. Future research proceeding from established facts would set different priorities, and would devote more attention to measuring the effects of migration on skilled-migrant households, rigorously estimating human capital externalities, gathering microdata beyond censuses, and carefully considering optimal policy among others. The recent literature has pursued a series of extensions to the Lump of Learning model. This study urges discarding the Lump of Learning model, pointing toward a new paradigm for research on skilled migration and development