Estimated growth in effective reproduction number as susceptible pool increases over time.

<p>(A) Tahiti, (B) Sous-le-vent, (C) Moorea, (D) Tuamotu-Gambier, (E) Marquises, (F) Australes. Line shows median from 1,000 samples of the posterior distribution, shaded region shows 95% credible interval.</p

Estimated parameters for ZIKV infection.

<p>Estimates for the basic reproduction number, <i>R</i>₀; the proportion of infected individuals that were reported as suspected cases at all sites (with reports following a negative binomial distribution with reporting proportion <i>r</i> and dispersion parameter <i>ϕ</i>); the total proportion of the population infected, including both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases; and the initial number of infectious humans, . Median estimates are given, with 95% credible intervals in parentheses. The full posterior distributions are shown in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726#pntd.0004726.s002" target="_blank">S2</a>–<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726#pntd.0004726.s008" target="_blank">S8</a> Figs.</p

Comparison of reported cases and fitted model trajectories.

<p>Black dots show weekly reported confirmed and suspected ZIKV cases from sentinel sites. Blue line shows median of 2,000 simulated trajectories from the fitted model, adjusted for variation in reporting over time; shaded region shows 95% credible interval.</p

Parameters used in the model.

<p>Prior distributions are given for all parameters, along with source if the prior incorporates a specific mean value. All rates are given in units of days⁻¹.</p

Geographical breakdown of the 2013–14 French Polynesia ZIKV outbreak.

<p>Geographical breakdown of the 2013–14 French Polynesia ZIKV outbreak.</p

Human-vector transmission model schematic.

<p><i>S</i>^<i>H</i> represents the number of susceptible people, <i>E</i>^<i>H</i> the number of people incubating the virus, <i>I</i>^<i>H</i> the number of infectious people, <i>R</i>^<i>H</i> the number recovered people. Similarly, <i>S</i>^<i>V</i> represents the proportion of mosquitoes currently susceptible, <i>E</i>^<i>V</i> the proportion in their incubation period, and <i>I</i>^<i>V</i> the proportion of mosquitoes infectious. Mosquitoes are assumed to remain infectious for life. <i>β</i>_<i>V</i> is the transmission rate from humans to mosquitoes; <i>β</i>_<i>H</i> is transmission from mosquitoes to humans; 1/<i>α</i>_<i>H</i> and 1/<i>α</i>_<i>V</i> are the mean latent periods for humans and mosquitoes respectively; 1/<i>γ</i> is the mean infectious period for humans; 1/<i>δ</i> is the mean lifespan of mosquitoes; and <i>N</i> is the human population size.</p

Spatial and temporal distribution of confirmed cases of DENV-1 and DENV-4 infections between January and December 2009.

<p>Spatial and temporal distribution of confirmed cases of DENV-1 and DENV-4 infections between January and December 2009.</p

Relevant amino acid substitutions on the E protein based on the consensus sequence of 142 DENV-4 strains.

<p>*non conservative aa substitution; strains of interest are in bold characters.</p

Monthly recorded dengue suspected and confirmed cases from January 2009 to December 2010.

<p>Monthly recorded dengue suspected and confirmed cases from January 2009 to December 2010.</p

Evolutionary relationships of DENV-4 E gene sequences.

<p>ML original tree derived from 110 DENV-4 E gene sequences. The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) is shown for values over 80. The number of strains with identical E gene sequence is indicated in parenthesis (these additional strains could have been collected in a different district or island and at a different date than the strain that appears in the tree).</p