A review of the bandwidth and environmental discourses of future energy scenarios:Shades of green and gray

Energy scenarios are often used to investigate various possible energy futures and reduce the uncertainty that surrounds energy transition. However, scenario construction lacks consistent and adequate methodological standards, resulting in limited insight into the actual bandwidth covered by current energy scenarios and whether various perspectives on future energy development pathways are all adequately represented. Our research deployed a non-mathematical clustering approach to identify general trends in future energy scenarios and assess the role of Cornucopian and Malthusian oriented world views therein. We found that the futures communicated in quantified future energy scenarios overlap to a large extent and represent only a narrow bandwidth of moderate world views. We argue that the underrepresentation of extreme representations of world views and environmental discourses in energy scenarios skews the overall outlook on possible energy futures. This implies that scenario-informed policy design and decision-making risks bias towards the status-quo. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Environmental and Energy Performance of the Biomass to Synthetic Natural Gas Supply Chain

A quarter of the total primary energy demand in the European Union is met by natural gas. Synthetic natural gas produced through biomass gasification can contribute to a more sustainable energy supply system. A chain analysis of the energetic performance of synthetic natural gas where the upstream, midstream and downstream part are included has not been found in literature. The energy performance of the possible large-scale application of synthetic natural gas is therefore unsure. A model was designed to analyse the performance of the biomass to synthetic natural gas chain and to estimate the effect of 1% synthetic natural gas in the energy system. A break-even distance is introduced to determine whether it is energetically feasible to apply pretreatment. Results show that torrefaction and pelleting are energetically unfeasible within the European Union. Emissions can be reduced with almost 70% compared to a fossil reference scenario. Over 1.2 Mha is required to fulfil 0.25% of the total primary energy demand in the European Union

The impact of biogas production on the organic carbon input to the soil of Dutch dairy farms:A substance flow analysis

The use of Dutch dairy manure for biogas production is expected to increase from 10% in 2020 to 60% in 2030. Traditionally, manure is returned to fields as a source of nutrients and organic carbon. Since a share of manure carbon is converted into biogas, this practice impacts the organic carbon input to soil (OCIS) of the dairy farms. The magnitude of the impact depends on the magnitude of the other sources of organic carbon. This impact is not considered by current advocates for large-scale use of dairy manure for biogas while understanding it is essential because of the risk of decreasing carbon soil input. Therefore, a study of carbon flows of dairy farms that eventually contribute to the OCIS is required. In this paper, we use substance flow analysis to quantify the carbon flows on different Dutch dairy farms and investigate the impact of using manure for biogas production to their OCIS (kgC/year/ha). The farms differ in farming practices such as whether cows are grazed outside or not. The results show that about 40% of OCIS of a Dutch dairy farm comes from manure and the rest comes from its crop production. The organic carbon from manure to the soil is also limited by the need to export manure due to the Dutch nutrient regulations. The overall reduction in OCIS caused by biogas production is 10%–20%. The impact is largest in farms with no grazing. These findings provide insights into the possible trade-offs of using manure for biogas production

Balancing responsibilities:Effects of growth of variable renewable energy, storage, and undue grid interaction

Electrical energy storage is often proposed as a solution for the mismatch between supply patterns of variable renewable electricity sources and electricity demand patterns. However, effectiveness and usefulness of storage may vary under different circumstances. This study provides an abstract perspective on the merits of electrical energy storage integrated with decentralized supply systems consisting of solar PV and wind power in a mesolevel, residential sector context. We used a balancing model to couple demand and supply patterns based on Dutch weather data and assess the resultant loads given various scenarios. Our model results highlight differences in storage effectiveness for solar PV and wind power, and strong diminishing-returns effects. Small storage capacities can be functional in reducing surpluses in overdimensioned supply systems and shortages in under-dimensioned supply systems. However, full elimination of imbalance requires substantial storage capacities. The overall potential of storage to mitigate imbalance of variable renewable energy is limited. Integration of storage in local supply systems may have self-sufficiency and cost-effectiveness benefits for prosumers but may have additional peak load disadvantages for grid operators. Adequate policy measures beyond current curtailment strategies are required to ensure proper distribution of benefits and responsibilities associated with variable renewable energy and storage