Impact of the Infection Period Distribution on the Epidemic Spread in a Metapopulation Model

Epidemic models usually rely on the assumption of exponentially distributed sojourn times in infectious states. This is sometimes an acceptable approximation, but it is generally not realistic and it may influence the epidemic dynamics as it has already been shown in one population. Here, we explore the consequences of choosing constant or gamma-distributed infectious periods in a metapopulation context. For two coupled populations, we show that the probability of generating no secondary infections is the largest for most parameter values if the infectious period follows an exponential distribution, and we identify special cases where, inversely, the infection is more prone to extinction in early phases for constant infection durations. The impact of the infection duration distribution on the epidemic dynamics of many connected populations is studied by simulation and sensitivity analysis, taking into account the potential interactions with other factors. The analysis based on the average nonextinct epidemic trajectories shows that their sensitivity to the assumption on the infectious period distribution mostly depends on , the mean infection duration and the network structure. This study shows that the effect of assuming exponential distribution for infection periods instead of more realistic distributions varies with respect to the output of interest and to other factors. Ultimately it highlights the risk of misleading recommendations based on modelling results when models including exponential infection durations are used for practical purposes

Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

Epidemiological models enable to better understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and to assess ex-ante control strategies. For Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), possible transmission routes have been described, but Map spread in a herd and the relative importance of the routes are currently insufficiently understood to prioritize control measures. We aim to predict early after Map introduction in a dairy cattle herd whether infection is likely to fade out or persist, when no control measures are implemented, using a modelling approach. Both vertical transmission and horizontal transmission via the ingestion of colostrum, milk, or faeces present in the contaminated environment were modelled. Calf-to-calf indirect transmission was possible. Six health states were represented: susceptible, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, clinically affected, and resistant. The model was partially validated by comparing the simulated prevalence with field data. Housing facilities and contacts between animals were specifically considered for calves and heifers. After the introduction of one infected animal in a naive herd, fadeout occurred in 66% of the runs. When Map persisted, the prevalence of infected animals increased to 88% in 25 years. The two main transmission routes were via the farm's environment and in utero transmission. Calf-to-calf transmission was minor. Fadeout versus Map persistence could be differentiated with the number of clinically affected animals, which was rarely above one when fadeout occurred. Therefore, early detection of affected animals is crucial in preventing Map persistence in dairy herds

Seasonal and spatial heterogeneities in host and vector abundances impact the spatiotemporal spread of bluetongue

Bluetongue (BT) can cause severe livestock losses and large direct and indirect costs for farmers. To propose targeted control strategies as alternative to massive vaccination, there is a need to better understand how BT virus spread in space and time according to local characteristics of host and vector populations. Our objective was to assess, using a modelling approach, how spatiotemporal heterogeneities in abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors impact the occurrence and amplitude of local and regional BT epidemics. We built a reaction–diffusion model accounting for the seasonality in vector abundance and the active dispersal of vectors. Because of the scale chosen, and movement restrictions imposed during epidemics, host movements and wind-induced passive vector movements were neglected. Four levels of complexity were addressed using a theoretical approach, from a homogeneous to a heterogeneous environment in abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors. These scenarios were illustrated using data on abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors in a real geographical area. We have shown that local epidemics can occur earlier and be larger in scale far from the primary case rather than close to it. Moreover, spatial heterogeneities in hosts and vectors delay the epidemic peak and decrease the infection prevalence. The results obtained on a real area confirmed those obtained on a theoretical domain. Although developed to represent BTV spatiotemporal spread, our model can be used to study other vector-borne diseases of animals with a local to regional spread by vector diffusion

The cytoplasmic tail of the rabies virus G protein is an essential domain controlling death/survival in human neuronal cells

Poster presentation

Physiopathology of human embryonic implantation: clinical incidences.

Embryo implantation consists of a series of events promoting the invasion of the endometrium and then the uterine arterial system by the extra-embryonic trophoblast. In order for this semi-heterologous implantation to succeed, the endometrium has to first undergo a number of structural and biochemical changes (decidualization). The decidua's various constituents subsequently play a role in the embryonic implantation. The third step is the transformation of the uterine vascular system and the growth of the placenta, which will provide the foetoplacental unit with nutrients. Several physiopathological aspects will be discussed: 1) the implantation window, regulated by maternal and embryonic hormonal secretions and thus influenced by any defects in the latter: dysharmonic luteal phase, 21-hydroxylase block, abnormal integrin expression, 2) the successive trophoblast invasions of uterine vessels which, when defective, lead to early embryo loss or late-onset vascular pathologies, as preeclampsia, 3) the pregnancy's immunological equilibrium, with a spontaneously tolerated semi-allogeneic implant, 4) the impact of pro-coagulant factors (thrombophilia) on the pregnancy's progression, 5) the environment of the uterus, ranging from hydrosalpinx to uterine contractions. In summary, the least anatomical or physiological perturbation can interfere with human embryonic implantation - a very particular phenomenon and a true biological paradox

Le Conquet – Structures d’estran sur l’île de Quéménès

Une intervention a eu lieu en mars 2014 sur un amas coquillier (site 22 bis) découvert par les tempêtes de l’hiver 2014 sur l’île de Quéménès (OA 2463). Cette première opération s’était arrêtée au pied de la microfalaise et avait mis au jour, outre les restes fauniques (faune terrestre, ichtyofaune, malacofaune, avifaune, mammifères marins), des restes anthracologiques et carpologiques et du mobilier céramique et lithique, l’ensemble se rattachant à la Protohistoire. À la fin de l’interventio..

Pitfall of hepatitis B surface antigen testing in a kidney transplant recipient presenting hepatitis B reactivation

Summary Diagnosis of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection based on hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) detection can be hampered in the setting of HBV reactivation in immunocompromized patients with prior serology indicating past cured infection, and can be associated with severe or fulminant and fatal hepatitis. We present a case of HBV reactivation in a renal transplant patient in whom HBsAg failed to be confirmed as a true positive result. One year after transplantation, systematic testing showed HBsAg positivity with a titer at 244 pg/mL, anti-hepatitis B core antibody and concurrent anti-hepatitis B surface antibody positivity. Confirmation of HBsAg detection by seroneutralization did not confirm HBsAg positivity, indicating that HBsAg detection was a false positive result. Notwithstanding, HBV DNA titer in serum was concurrently 8.6 Log IU/mL. HBV DNA sequencing showed a genotype D and several amino acid substitutions within HBsAg, including some previously involved in impaired diagnosis and altered immunogenicity. Although no perturbation of liver biochemical markers was observed, treatment with tenofovir was introduced. One month later, HBV DNA level had decreased by 2.6 Log IU/mL and no clinical and biochemical symptoms of hepatitis had occurred. The present case underlines that serologic diagnosis of HBV reactivation can be tricky in transplant recipients with a prior serology indicating past HBV infection. This prompts to perform HBV DNA testing in case of positive HBsAg testing, regardless of the result of neutralization by anti-HBs antibodies

Visually narrating post-colonial lives: ghosts of war and empire

This paper is about two journeys: the first through the memories of an old soldier captured by the Japanese in the Second World War; the second through the present life to which this past gave rise, in which the old soldier tends the graves of his fellow soldiers as part of his current navigation by bus and taxi of the post-colonial landscape of Hong Kong