INTERTEMPORAL AND INTERSPATIAL VARIABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DRYLAND WINTER WHEAT YIELD TRENDS

The importance of climate (temperature and precipitation) variability on Nebraska dryland winter wheat yield trend is examined. The use of short term (1956-1999) climatic divisional panel data (interspatial) and long term (1909-1999) state time series data (intertemporal) is to address the predictability power of estimating the yield trends accounting for climate variability.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

EVALUATION OF OPTIMUM REGRET DECISIONS IN CROP SELLING

Minimum regret solutions from alternative monthly sales for corn, wheat, and soybeans were determined. The data set involved eleven years of monthly prices for corn and soybeans and twelve years for wheat. The regret, risk (MOTAD), and expected value of the optimum regret solutions were compared to solutions using other optimizing techniques.Marketing,

TESTING FOR INPUT AND OUTPUT SEPARABILITY IN NEBRASKA AGRICULTURE SECTOR

The existence of Weak Separability aggregates of inputs and outputs is tested using a Translog production and input requirement function for the Nebraska Agricultural sector for 1936-1994. A separability test was performed only after testing time series properties by comparing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of unit roots.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

ESTIMATED RISK-RETURN COMPENSATIONS REQUIRED UNDER REDUCED NITROGEN USE

An analysis was made of the reduced return and increased risk of reduced nitrogen use. The data source was an 11-year set of yields for continuous and rotational cropping of corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum each fertilized at three nitrogen levels. Risk was measured as returns below a target.Crop Production/Industries,

Feedgrain Prices, Hog Production and Fixity

One of the characteristics of the feedgrain sector in recent years has been its large year to year price fluctuations. There are two possible causes for these fluctuations in prices: 1) short-run (one year or less) changes in domestic and export demands, and (2) weather-related shifts in the supply of feedgrains in the face of a feedgrain demand, which exhibits little price responsiveness in the short-run. While both aspects may be involved, here we will examine only the second issue of why fluctuations in domestic feedgrain supply result in such wide fluctuations in prices, due to feedgrain demand being so unresponsive to short-run prices

Is Farmland a Good Investment?

It is frequently questioned how farmland as an investment can maintain its value while seemingly generating such low returns per dollar invested. Often a parallel is drawn between investing in farmland vs. a relatively riskless but higher return investment such as U.S. Treasury notes. Risky investments are expected to require a risk premium (higher returns) compared to a less risky investment. Yet it often appears that farmland returns are less than the return from relatively risk free opportunities. Further, farmland and other real estate investments are generally considered less liquid compared to other investments. The investment market is complex. However, there are three aspects which help our understanding of the worth of an investment. These are 1) the pattern of returns from an investment, whether in the form of annual returns (dividends), capital appreciation or both, 2) income tax effects, and 3) risk. These are discussed in turn

Land Valuation and the Income Capitalization Model

Early work in agricultural land appraisal emphasized several factors contributing to the value of agricultural land. These included productivity, building quality, location, adjoining road quality and other factors. Irrigation potential also came to be important and more recently, recreational factors and urban development have become important in explaining land values. Productivity gained in importance over time as the underlying force, although the remaining factors still are considered in explaining value differences among tracts. The reliance on productivity is the focus of this article, and other influences on land values such as urban development potential are not considered, even though they may strongly impact land tracts in particular locations

Incorporating Risk in Efficiency Analysis

Using a non-parametric linear programming approach, our contribution is (1) to examine the impact of incorporating risk in efficiency analysis and (2) to compare the efficiency measures with and without risk for continuous and rotation cropping systems. The model uses Nebraska cropping system data for the period, 1986-2000. Results indicate lower efficiency gains are realized with the incorporation of risk. The t-test at the 5% level of significance examining if efficiency measures are significantly different from one is also reported

GROWTH AND SURVIVAL IN WHEAT FARMING: THE IMPACT OF LAND EXPANSION AND BORROWING RESTRAINTS

Simulation is used to examine impacts of land expansion strategies and self-imposed borrowing limits upon growth and survival odds of a dryland wheat farm over a 15-year period. Compared to share-rent expansion, purchasing land shows only marginally great growth at best, with substantially higher odds of firm failure. A tradeoff of enhanced survival at the expense of reduced growth results from more conservative borrowing for land. The marginal value of liquidity (for assisting survival) is relatively high at lower levels of credit reserves.Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use,

Causality, Input Price Variability, and Structural Changes in the U.S. Livestock- Meat Industry

Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries,