The path towards herd immunity : predicting COVID-19 vaccination uptake through results from a stated choice study across six continents

Despite unprecedented progress in developing COVID-19 vaccines, global vaccination levels needed to reach herd immunity remain a distant target, while new variants keep emerging. Obtaining near universal vaccine uptake relies on understanding and addressing vaccine resistance. Simple questions about vaccine acceptance however ignore that the vaccines being offered vary across countries and even population subgroups, and differ in terms of efficacy and side effects. By using advanced discrete choice models estimated on stated choice data collected in 18 countries/territories across six continents, we show a substantial influence of vaccine characteristics. Uptake increases if more efficacious vaccines (95% vs 60%) are offered (mean across study areas = 3.9%, range of 0.6%–8.1%) or if vaccines offer at least 12 months of protection (mean across study areas = 2.4%, range of 0.2%–5.8%), while an increase in severe side effects (from 0.001% to 0.01%) leads to reduced uptake (mean = −1.3%, range of −0.2% to −3.9%). Additionally, a large share of individuals (mean = 55.2%, range of 28%–75.8%) would delay vaccination by 3 months to obtain a more efficacious (95% vs 60%) vaccine, where this increases further if the low efficacy vaccine has a higher risk (0.01% instead of 0.001%) of severe side effects (mean = 65.9%, range of 41.4%–86.5%). Our work highlights that careful consideration of which vaccines to offer can be beneficial. In support of this, we provide an interactive tool to predict uptake in a country as a function of the vaccines being deployed, and also depending on the levels of infectiousness and severity of circulating variants of COVID-19

Exploring multiple-discreteness in freight transport : a multiple discrete extreme value model application for grain consolidators in Argentina

There are some examples where freight choices may be of a multiple discrete nature, especially the ones at more tactical levels of planning. Nevertheless, this has not been investigated in the literature, although several discrete-continuous models for mode/vehicle type and shipment size choice have been developed in freight transport. In this work, we propose that the decision of port and mode of the grain consolidators in Argentina is of a discrete-continuous nature, where they can choose more than one alternative and how much of their production to send by each mode. The Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Model (MDCEV) framework was applied to a stated preference data set with a response variable that allowed this multiple-discreteness. To our knowledge, this is the only application of the MDCEV in regional freight context. Free alongside ship price, freight transport cost, lead-time and travel time were included in the utility function and observed and random heterogeneity was captured by the interaction with the consolidator’s characteristics and random coefficients. In addition, different discrete choice models were used to compare the forecasting performance, willingness to pay measures and structure of the utility function against

Aplicação da teoria de preços hedônicos para avaliação da influência da caminhabilidade no preço de venda de imóveis residenciais

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a influência da caminhabilidade no preço de venda de imóveis residenciais, através de um estudo de caso na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. As análises foram conduzidas através de uma abordagem hedônica, u:lizando modelos de equações estruturais para construções das variáveis latentes de caracterís:cas não observáveis. Nesse caso enquadra-se a caminhabilidade e a segurança pública, inclusas no modelo testado. Essa metodologia possibilitou a análise da estrutura das variáveis latentes, suas relações mútuas e com o preço dos imóveis. Os resultados ob:dos mostram que o preço do metro quadrado de imóveis residenciais à venda na área de estudo cresce conforme aumenta a caminhabilidade. A segurança pública, a declividade viária e a presença de construções aprazíveis foram iden:ficadas como os fatores mais importantes na explicação da caminhabilidade e, consequentemente, na valorização do imóvel.The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of walkability on sale price of residen:al proper:es, through a case study in Rio de Janeiro city. The analyzes were conducted in a hedonic approach, using structural equa:on models to construct the latent variables of the unobservable characteris:cs, such as walkability and public safety included in the tasted model. This methodology made it possible to analyze the structure of latent variables, their mutual rela:onships and their rela:onship with the real estate values. The results obtained show that square meter price of residen:al real estate for sale, in the study area, increases as the walkability increases. Public safety, road slope and the presence of beau:ful buildings were iden:fied as the key factors to explain walkability and, consequently, to aggregate monetary value for realty

Impacto de las estrategias para incentivar el uso de la bicicleta en viajes al trabajo : un estudio de caso con empleados de la Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento

This study identifies the most valued factors for potential bicycle users on work trips and evaluate the impact of implementing different strategies to improve bicycle use. We applied an online stated-preference survey from 127 Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento (CORSAN) employees in Porto Alegre (Brazil). Then, we formulated hybrid ordered logit models to estimate the probability of bicycle use under different hypothetical scenarios. The results showed that locker rooms, bicycle parking, bike-sharing systems (bike loaner programs run by the company), training for employees in bicycle use and the presence of bike paths for access to CORSAN all encourage bicycle use. The availability of locker rooms proved to be the most important variable. The joint implementation of locker rooms, bicycle parking and bike-sharing systems (loaner programs) would increase demand by 66%. The strategies discussed in this article can easily be adapted to other contexts where there is a desire to increase shared bicycle commuting to workplaces.Los objetivos de este estudio son identificar los factores más importantes para estimular el uso de la bicicleta en viajes al trabajo y evaluar el impacto de la implantación de diferentes medidas. Los empleados de la Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento (CORSAN) fueron utilizados como estudio de caso en Porto Alegre (Brasil), a través de una encuesta de preferencia declarada. La probabilidad de uso de la bicicleta en diferentes escenarios se estimó mediante modelos híbridos logit ordenados. Los resultados mostraron que la implantación de vestuarios, estacionamiento de bicicletas, sistemas de bicicletas compartidas (programa de préstamos de bicicletas realizado por la empresa), capacitación de los empleados en relación al uso de bicicleta y la presencia de ciclovías para el acceso a CORSAN, fomentan el uso de la bicicleta. La disponibilidad de vestuarios resultó ser la variable más importante. La implementación conjunta de vestuarios, estacionamiento de bicicletas y sistemas de bicicletas compartidas (programas de préstamo) aumentaría la demanda en un 66% en este caso. Los procedimientos adoptados podrían aplicarse fácilmente en otros contextos donde se desee incrementar la proporción de viajes hacia los lugares de trabajo

The choice of not being discrete : discussing the use of discrete continuous models in freight transport

O transporte de carga tem u+lizado os modelos herdados do transporte de passageiros e com eles todos seus pressupostos tradicionais. Mas são todos eles válidos? O presente ar+go visa discu+r sobre um dos pressupostos menos contestados neste processo de modelagem: o da exclusividade mútua das alterna+vas no contexto do transporte de carga. Para isso, este ar+go apresenta uma aplicação de Mul ple Discrete Extreme Value Model (MDCEV) para a escolha de modo e porto para os consolidadores de grãos na Argen+na. O modelo é desenvolvido a par+r de uma pesquisa de Preferência Declarada que permi+a a escolha de mais de uma alterna+va simultaneamente. A escolha é descrita pelo Tempo de Viagem, Tempo de Espera do Serviço, Preço de venda no porto e Custo do Frete. O MDCEV permi+u obter informação sobre o efeito da saciedade das diferentes alterna+vas. De esta maneira, o MDCEV pode ser uma ferramenta valiosa para a modelagem de escolhas tá+cas e estratégicas.Freight transport has historically inherited the passage transport framework and model assump+ons. But, are all of them valid? This paper discusses one of the least discussed assump+ons: the mutual exclusiveness of alterna+ves in the freight context. To do so, a Mul+ple Discrete Extreme Value Model (MDCEV) has been used to describe the behavior of grain consolidators with data from a stated preference survey that allowed mul+- ple alterna+ves to be chosen simultaneously. The choice is described by the Travel Time, Lead Time, Price paid in the port and Freight Price. The MDCEV gave insights regarding the sa+a+on behavior of the grain consolidators. This way, the MDCEV can become a valuable tool for modeling tac+cal and strategic choices

Estudo de tráfego e acessibilidade para implantação de um pólo atrator de viagens

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