14,558 research outputs found
Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP
The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.
GROWTH AND SURVIVAL IN WHEAT FARMING: THE IMPACT OF LAND EXPANSION AND BORROWING RESTRAINTS
Simulation is used to examine impacts of land expansion strategies and self-imposed borrowing limits upon growth and survival odds of a dryland wheat farm over a 15-year period. Compared to share-rent expansion, purchasing land shows only marginally great growth at best, with substantially higher odds of firm failure. A tradeoff of enhanced survival at the expense of reduced growth results from more conservative borrowing for land. The marginal value of liquidity (for assisting survival) is relatively high at lower levels of credit reserves.Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use,
COMPARISON OF LIVESTOCK PRICE FORECASTING USING SIMPLE TECHNIQUES, FORWARD PRICING AND OUTLOOK INFORMATION
Demand and Price Analysis,
The influence of temperature dynamics and dynamic finite ion Larmor radius effects on seeded high amplitude plasma blobs
Thermal effects on the perpendicular convection of seeded pressure blobs in
the scrape-off layer of magnetised fusion plasmas are investigated. Our
numerical study is based on a four field full-F gyrofluid model, which entails
the consistent description of high fluctuation amplitudes and dynamic finite
Larmor radius effects. We find that the maximal radial blob velocity increases
with the square root of the initial pressure perturbation and that a finite
Larmor radius contributes to highly compact blob structures that propagate in
the poloidal direction. An extensive parameter study reveals that a smooth
transition to this compact blob regime occurs when the finite Larmor radius
effect strength, defined by the ratio of the magnetic field aligned component
of the ion diamagnetic to the vorticity, exceeds unity.
The maximal radial blob velocities agree excellently with the inertial velocity
scaling law over more than an order of magnitude. We show that the finite
Larmor radius effect strength affects the poloidal and total particle transport
and present an empirical scaling law for the poloidal and total blob
velocities. Distinctions to the blob behaviour in the isothermal limit with
constant finite Larmor radius effects are highlighted
The invisible power of fairness. How machine learning shapes democracy
Many machine learning systems make extensive use of large amounts of data
regarding human behaviors. Several researchers have found various
discriminatory practices related to the use of human-related machine learning
systems, for example in the field of criminal justice, credit scoring and
advertising. Fair machine learning is therefore emerging as a new field of
study to mitigate biases that are inadvertently incorporated into algorithms.
Data scientists and computer engineers are making various efforts to provide
definitions of fairness. In this paper, we provide an overview of the most
widespread definitions of fairness in the field of machine learning, arguing
that the ideas highlighting each formalization are closely related to different
ideas of justice and to different interpretations of democracy embedded in our
culture. This work intends to analyze the definitions of fairness that have
been proposed to date to interpret the underlying criteria and to relate them
to different ideas of democracy.Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure, preprint version, submitted to The 32nd Canadian
Conference on Artificial Intelligence that will take place in Kingston,
Ontario, May 28 to May 31, 201
A SUSTAINABLE HERBICIDE AND GRASS ESTABLISHMENT APPROACH FOR LAND RECLAMATION: A CASE OF RUSSIAN KNAPWEED
Controlling Russian knapweed with an integrated system of herbicide followed by seeding perennial grass is profitable in yielding an 8.7% average rate of return, and repaying the establishment costs in approximately six years. Moreover, the system is sustainable by exploiting plant competition and eliminating herbicide usage in later years.Land Economics/Use,
Three-dimensional carrier-dynamics simulation of terahertz emission from photoconductive switches
A semi-classical Monte Carlo model for studying three-dimensional carrier
dynamics in photoconductive switches is presented. The model was used to
simulate the process of photoexcitation in GaAs-based photoconductive antennas
illuminated with pulses typical of mode-locked Ti:Sapphire lasers. We analyzed
the power and frequency bandwidth of THz radiation emitted from these devices
as a function of bias voltage, pump pulse duration and pump pulse location. We
show that the mechanisms limiting the THz power emitted from photoconductive
switches fall into two regimes: when illuminated with short duration (<40 fs)
laser pulses the energy distribution of the Gaussian pulses constrains the
emitted power, while for long (>40 fs) pulses, screening is the primary
power-limiting mechanism. A discussion of the dynamics of bias field screening
in the gap region is presented. The emitted terahertz power was found to be
enhanced when the exciting laser pulse was in close proximity to the anode of
the photoconductive emitter, in agreement with experimental results. We show
that this enhancement arises from the electric field distribution within the
emitter combined with a difference in the mobilities of electrons and holes.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure
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