GROWTH AND SURVIVAL IN WHEAT FARMING: THE IMPACT OF LAND EXPANSION AND BORROWING RESTRAINTS

Simulation is used to examine impacts of land expansion strategies and self-imposed borrowing limits upon growth and survival odds of a dryland wheat farm over a 15-year period. Compared to share-rent expansion, purchasing land shows only marginally great growth at best, with substantially higher odds of firm failure. A tradeoff of enhanced survival at the expense of reduced growth results from more conservative borrowing for land. The marginal value of liquidity (for assisting survival) is relatively high at lower levels of credit reserves.Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use,

COMPARISON OF LIVESTOCK PRICE FORECASTING USING SIMPLE TECHNIQUES, FORWARD PRICING AND OUTLOOK INFORMATION

Demand and Price Analysis,

A Case Study of Fall versus Spring Calving for the Rocky Mountain West

Feeder cattle prices are generally lower in the fall, when the volume of calves for sale is highest. Most ranches in the Rocky Mountains calve in March or April, which results in the sale of weaned calves in October, when feeder cattle prices tend to be lowest. This study was initiated with the idea that a rancher might improve profitability by switching to fall calving, which would enable them to sell calves in April at a higher price. In this study, fall calving generated both higher and less variable profit, but mainly because of cost savings.Livestock Production/Industries,

A SUSTAINABLE HERBICIDE AND GRASS ESTABLISHMENT APPROACH FOR LAND RECLAMATION: A CASE OF RUSSIAN KNAPWEED

Controlling Russian knapweed with an integrated system of herbicide followed by seeding perennial grass is profitable in yielding an 8.7% average rate of return, and repaying the establishment costs in approximately six years. Moreover, the system is sustainable by exploiting plant competition and eliminating herbicide usage in later years.Land Economics/Use,

INCORPORATING SAFETY-FIRST CONSTRAINTS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING PRODUCTION MODELS

A recent survey indicated that many procedures view risk in a safety-first context. Traditional methods used to impose safety-first constraints in optimization models have often been difficult to implement. This is particularly true when endogenous decisions affect the distribution of the chance-constrained random variable. This paper presents a method whereby probabilistic constraints can be easily imposed upon finitely discrete random variables. The procedure uses a linear version of the lower partial moment stochastic inequality. The resulting solutions are somewhat conservative but are less so than the results using the previously published mean income-absolute deviation stochastic inequality.Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

PERFORMANCE OF RISK-INCOME MODELS OUTSIDE THE ORIGINAL DATA SET

Selected risk programming solutions (i.e., profit maximization, Target-MOTAD, and MOTAD) are tested in an economic environment outside the data set from which they were developed. Specifically, solutions are derived from either a longer 10-year (1965-74) or shorter 6-year estimation period (1969-74), and then, they are tested for consistent risk-income characteristics over a later 10-year period (1975-84). Risk solutions estimated from earlier periods perform well in the later test period in spite of different economic conditions between time periods. However, favorable performance may be related to the specific example used in this analysis. Further testing for other farm situations is needed before general conclusions can be reached.Risk and Uncertainty,

TRAP CROP RADISH: A SUSTAINABLE ALTERNATIVE FOR NEMATICIDE IN SUGAR BEETS

Chemical treatment of nematodes in sugar beets can be very costly ($190 per acre), and hazardous, representing significant environmental risks to air, water and human health. Substituting trap crop radish for chemicals, represents a win-win case of sustainable pest control, yielding environmental benefits, higher profit and reduced risk.Crop Production/Industries,

ECONOMICS OF VARIABLE RATE NEMATICIDE FOR SUGAR BEETS

The benefit of applying fumigant for control of the sugar beet nematode on a variable versus uniform rate basis is examined. Compared to fumigating an entire filed at a constant full-label rate, varialbe rate application provides a savings ranging from $31/ac (heavily infested field) to$69/ac (lightly infested field).Crop Production/Industries,

RISK-RETURN ANALYSIS OF INCORPORATING ANNUAL LEGUMES AND LAMB GRAZING WITH DRYLAND CROP ROTATIONS

Profitability and risk, 1988-2001, are examined for lamb-grazed field pea as a fallow alternative with wheat, or an extended wheat-sunflower-millet rotation. Switching from conventional wheat-fallow to an extended rotation with grazed-peas increases profitability (2.3% to 7.3%), and reduces risk (below 0% target in only 2 versus 7 of 14 years).Crop Production/Industries,