70 research outputs found
Invariant Causal Prediction for Nonlinear Models
An important problem in many domains is to predict how a system will respond
to interventions. This task is inherently linked to estimating the system's
underlying causal structure. To this end, Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP)
(Peters et al., 2016) has been proposed which learns a causal model exploiting
the invariance of causal relations using data from different environments. When
considering linear models, the implementation of ICP is relatively
straightforward. However, the nonlinear case is more challenging due to the
difficulty of performing nonparametric tests for conditional independence. In
this work, we present and evaluate an array of methods for nonlinear and
nonparametric versions of ICP for learning the causal parents of given target
variables. We find that an approach which first fits a nonlinear model with
data pooled over all environments and then tests for differences between the
residual distributions across environments is quite robust across a large
variety of simulation settings. We call this procedure "invariant residual
distribution test". In general, we observe that the performance of all
approaches is critically dependent on the true (unknown) causal structure and
it becomes challenging to achieve high power if the parental set includes more
than two variables. As a real-world example, we consider fertility rate
modelling which is central to world population projections. We explore
predicting the effect of hypothetical interventions using the accepted models
from nonlinear ICP. The results reaffirm the previously observed central causal
role of child mortality rates
backShift: Learning causal cyclic graphs from unknown shift interventions
We propose a simple method to learn linear causal cyclic models in the
presence of latent variables. The method relies on equilibrium data of the
model recorded under a specific kind of interventions ("shift interventions").
The location and strength of these interventions do not have to be known and
can be estimated from the data. Our method, called backShift, only uses second
moments of the data and performs simple joint matrix diagonalization, applied
to differences between covariance matrices. We give a sufficient and necessary
condition for identifiability of the system, which is fulfilled almost surely
under some quite general assumptions if and only if there are at least three
distinct experimental settings, one of which can be pure observational data. We
demonstrate the performance on some simulated data and applications in flow
cytometry and financial time series. The code is made available as R-package
backShift
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