Strategic asset allocation and the risk of the stock market in the long run

Current discussions about public and private pension plans often state that the stock market is less risky in the long run than in the short run. Pension plans with their rather long planning horizon are therefore asked to increase the allocation to the stock market. Such statements, however, usually lack a consistent clarification of the underlying reasons for the asserted positive horizon effect. Therefore, it is important for pension plans (and individual long-term investors alike) to be precise about any rational reasons to allocate a higher fraction of their wealth to the risky stock market. One reason that has become prominent among financial economists only recently, is the mounting empirical evidence of stock market predictability. However, our empirical analysis demonstrates that return predictability and persistent movements in expected returns should not be interpreted as a reliable driving force for a positive horizon effect and the corresponding market timing strategies, least of all when estimation risk is taken into account. Although there is some (weak) evidence of stock market predictability, neither the Swiss nor the U.S. stock market seem to be less risky in the long run than in the short run. Motivated by return predictability, long-term investors should not hold more stocks and should not time the market more aggressively than myopic short-term investors ..

Quantitative LEED analysis using a simultaneous optimisation algorithm

The performance of a combinatorial simultaneous optimisation algorithm (SO) is tested using experimental LEED I(E) data from Cu(100) and Fe$_{0.57}$Al$_{0.47}$(100) surfaces. SO optimises structures taking advantage of the experimental database at two levels: (i) conmensurate subsets of the database with the number of unknown parameters are chosen to find local solutions using Broyden's method and, (ii) these partial structural solutions are used to build a Markov chain over the whole database. This procedure is of global character, the same as simulated annealing or genetic algorithms methods, but displays a very competitive scaling law because after the first iteration candidates are not chosen by a blind/random pick; they are already solutions to the problem with a restricted experimental database.Financed by CYCIT (MAT-2005-3866) and MEC (CONSOLIDER NANOSELEC-26400

Optimizing the Density of Holes of EWT Solar Cells Taking Into Consideration Mechanical Aspects

EWT solar cells start from drilled wafers with approximately 100 holes/cm2. These holes act as stress concentrators leading to a reduction in the mechanical strength of this type of wafers. The viability of cells with higher density of holes has been studied. To this end, sets of wafers with different density of holes have been characterized. The ring on ring test has been employed and FE models have been developed to simulate the test. The statistical evaluation permits to draw conclusions about the reduction of the strength depending on the density of holes. Moreover, the stress concentration around the holes has been studied by means of the FE method employing the sub-modeling technique. The maximum principal stress of EWT wafers with twice the density of holes of commercial ones is almost the same. However, the mutual interaction between the stress concentration effects around neighboring holes is only observed for wafers with a density of 200 holes/cm

Combining a Similar Coefficient Identification Algorithm with the Boundary Element Method

The boundary element method (BEM) has been applied successfully to many engineering problems during the last decades. Compared with domain type methods like the finite element method (FEM) or the finite difference method (FDM) the BEM can handle problems where the medium extends to infinity much easier than domain type methods as there is no need to develop special boundary conditions (quiet or absorbing boundaries) or infinite elements at the boundaries introduced to limit the domain studied. The determination of the dynamic stiffness of arbitrarily shaped footings is just one of these fields where the BEM has been the method of choice, especially in the 1980s. With the continuous development of computer technology and the available hardware equipment the size of the problems under study grew and, as the flop count for solving the resulting linear system of equations grows with the third power of the number of equations, there was a need for the development of iterative methods with better performance. In [1] the GMRES algorithm was presented which is now widely used for implementations of the collocation BEM. While the FEM results in sparsely populated coefficient matrices, the BEM leads, in general, to fully or densely populated ones, depending on the number of subregions, posing a serious memory problem even for todays computers. If the geometry of the problem permits the surface of the domain to be meshed with equally shaped elements a lot of the resulting coefficients will be calculated and stored repeatedly. The present paper shows how these unnecessary operations can be avoided reducing the calculation time as well as the storage requirement. To this end a similar coefficient identification algorithm (SCIA), has been developed and implemented in a program written in Fortran 90. The vertical dynamic stiffness of a single pile in layered soil has been chosen to test the performance of the implementation. The results obtained with the 3-d model may be compared with those obtained with an axisymmetric formulation which are considered to be the reference values as the mesh quality is much better. The entire 3D model comprises more than 35000 dofs being a soil region with 21168 dofs the biggest single region. Note that the memory necessary to store all coefficients of this single region is about 6.8 GB, an amount which is usually not available with personal computers. In the problem under study the interface zone between the two adjacent soil regions as well as the surface of the top layer may be meshed with equally sized elements. In this case the application of the SCIA leads to an important reduction in memory requirements. The maximum memory used during the calculation has been reduced to 1.2 GB. The application of the SCIA thus permits problems to be solved on personal computers which otherwise would require much more powerful hardware

Characterization of a Structural Intermediate of Flavivirus Membrane Fusion

Viral membrane fusion proceeds through a sequence of steps that are driven by triggered conformational changes of viral envelope glycoproteins, so-called fusion proteins. Although high-resolution structural snapshots of viral fusion proteins in their prefusion and postfusion conformations are available, it has been difficult to define intermediate structures of the fusion pathway because of their transient nature. Flaviviruses possess a class II viral fusion protein (E) mediating fusion at acidic pH that is converted from a dimer to a trimer with a hairpin-like structure during the fusion process. Here we show for tick-borne encephalitis virus that exposure of virions to alkaline instead of acidic pH traps the particles in an intermediate conformation in which the E dimers dissociate and interact with target membranes via the fusion peptide without proceeding to the merger of the membranes. Further treatment to low pH, however, leads to fusion, suggesting that these monomers correspond to an as-yet-elusive intermediate required to convert the prefusion dimer into the postfusion trimer. Thus, the use of nonphysiological conditions allows a dissection of the flavivirus fusion process and the identification of two separate steps, in which membrane insertion of multiple copies of E monomers precedes the formation of hairpin-like trimers. This sequence of events provides important new insights for understanding the dynamic process of viral membrane fusion

Comparison of Different Finite Element Models for the Simulation of the Ring-Ball on Ring Test

Monocrystalline silicon wafers are widely used in photovoltaic industry. The trend towards thinner wafers leads to higher breakage rates in the production process. In this context, the characterization of the mechanical strength becomes necessary. Different fracture tests as the ring/ball on ring are carried out. This paper presents different ways to simulate these tests. Analytical methods are applied in a first step. Simplified FE models (with shell elements and an axisymmetric model) that take into account non linearities existing in the test are presented and a 3d solid model is detailed. Results in terms of calculation time, stress distribution, adjustment to the tests and fitting to a Weibull distribution are compare

SchussenAktivplus: reduction of micropollutants and of potentially pathogenic bacteria for further water quality improvement of the river Schussen, a tributary of Lake Constance, Germany

The project focuses on the efficiency of combined technologies to reduce the release of micropollutants and bacteria into surface waters via sewage treatment plants of different size and via stormwater overflow basins of different types. As a model river in a highly populated catchment area, the river Schussen and, as a control, the river Argen, two tributaries of Lake Constance, Southern Germany, are under investigation in this project. The efficiency of the different cleaning technologies is monitored by a wide range of exposure and effect analyses including chemical and microbiological techniques as well as effect studies ranging from molecules to communities

On the Temperature Dependence of the Shear Viscosity and Holography

We examine the structure of the shear viscosity to entropy density ratio eta/s in holographic theories of gravity coupled to a scalar field, in the presence of higher derivative corrections. Thanks to a non-trivial scalar field profile, eta/s in this setup generically runs as a function of temperature. In particular, its temperature behavior is dictated by the shape of the scalar potential and of the scalar couplings to the higher derivative terms. We consider a number of dilatonic setups, but focus mostly on phenomenological models that are QCD-like. We determine the geometric conditions needed to identify local and global minima for eta/s as a function of temperature, which translate to restrictions on the signs and ranges of the higher derivative couplings. Finally, such restrictions lead to an holographic argument for the existence of a global minimum for eta/s in these models, at or above the deconfinement transition.Comment: references adde

Peptide Inhibitors of Dengue-Virus Entry Target a Late-Stage Fusion Intermediate

The mechanism of membrane fusion by “class II” viral fusion proteins follows a pathway that involves large-scale domain rearrangements of the envelope glycoprotein (E) and a transition from dimers to trimers. The rearrangement is believed to proceed by an outward rotation of the E ectodomain after loss of the dimer interface, followed by a reassociation into extended trimers. The ∼55-aa-residue, membrane proximal “stem” can then zip up along domain II, bringing together the transmembrane segments of the C-terminus and the fusion loops at the tip of domain II. We find that peptides derived from the stem of dengue-virus E bind stem-less E trimer, which models a conformational intermediate. In vitro assays demonstrate that these peptides specifically block viral fusion. The peptides inhibit infectivity with potency proportional to their affinity for the conformational intermediate, even when free peptide is removed from a preincubated inoculum before infecting cells. We conclude that peptides bind virions before attachment and are carried with virions into endosomes, the compartment in which acidification initiates fusion. Binding depends on particle dynamics, as there is no inhibition of infectivity if preincubation and separation are at 4°C rather than 37°C. We propose a two-step model for the mechanism of fusion inhibition. Targeting a viral entry pathway can be an effective way to block infection. Our data, which support and extend proposed mechanisms for how the E conformational change promotes membrane fusion, suggest strategies for inhibiting flavivirus entry

A Therapeutic Antibody against West Nile Virus Neutralizes Infection by Blocking Fusion within Endosomes

Defining the precise cellular mechanisms of neutralization by potently inhibitory antibodies is important for understanding how the immune system successfully limits viral infections. We recently described a potently inhibitory monoclonal antibody (MAb E16) against the envelope (E) protein of West Nile virus (WNV) that neutralizes infection even after virus has spread to the central nervous system. Herein, we define its mechanism of inhibition. E16 blocks infection primarily at a post-attachment step as antibody-opsonized WNV enters permissive cells but cannot escape from endocytic compartments. These cellular experiments suggest that E16 blocks the acid-catalyzed fusion step that is required for nucleocapsid entry into the cytoplasm. Indeed, E16 directly inhibits fusion of WNV with liposomes. Additionally, low-pH exposure of E16–WNV complexes in the absence of target membranes did not fully inactivate infectious virus, further suggesting that E16 prevents a structural transition required for fusion. Thus, a strongly neutralizing anti–WNV MAb with therapeutic potential is potently inhibitory because it blocks viral fusion and thereby promotes clearance by delivering virus to the lysosome for destruction