642 research outputs found

    Potential artifacts in conservation laws and invariants inferred from sequential state estimation

    Get PDF
    In sequential estimation methods often used in oceanic and general climate calculations of the state and of forecasts, observations act mathematically and statistically as source or sink terms in conservation equations for heat, salt, mass, and momentum. These artificial terms obscure the inference of the system's variability or secular changes. Furthermore, for the purposes of calculating changes in important functions of state variables such as total mass and energy or volumetric current transports, results of both filter and smoother-based estimates are sensitive to misrepresentation of a large variety of parameters, including initial conditions, prior uncertainty covariances, and systematic and random errors in observations. Here, toy models of a coupled mass–spring oscillator system and of a barotropic Rossby wave system are used to demonstrate many of the issues that arise from such misrepresentations. Results from Kalman filter estimates and those from finite interval smoothing are analyzed. In the filter (and prediction) problem, entry of data leads to violation of conservation and other invariant rules. A finite interval smoothing method restores the conservation rules, but uncertainties in all such estimation results remain. Convincing trend and other time-dependent determinations in “reanalysis-like” estimates require a full understanding of models, observations, and underlying error structures. Application of smoother-type methods that are designed for optimal reconstruction purposes alleviate some of the issues.</p

    Three year global intercomparison of ERS-1 SAR wave mode spectral retrievals with WAM model data

    Get PDF
    A global statistical intercomparison was carried out for the period January 1993 to December 1995 between wave spectra retrieved from ERS-1 SAR Wave Mode (SWM) data using an inversion algorithm of the closed nonlinear wave-to-SAR spectral mapping relation and wave spectra computed with the wave model WAM. A combined quality analysis of the satellite data and a performance analysis of the retrieval algorithm was carried out. The assessment yielded about 75 percent successful retrievals. Time series of significant wave heights in different parts of the world oceans showed good overall agreement. However, a more detailed investigation exploring the distinct spectral properties of the windsea and swell content of the wave spectra revealed a small but systematic model overprediction of windsea and an underprediction of swell systems while the overpredicted windsea can be attributed to incorrect wind fields, the underpredicted swell could be caused by deficiencies in the model

    Statistical analysis and intercomparison of WAM model data with global ERS-1 SAR wave mode spectral retrievals over 3 years

    Get PDF
    Ocean wave spectra were retrieved from a set of ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) wave mode (SWM) spectra between January 1993 and December 1995. An assessment is given of the SWM data quality and the retrieval performance as well as the operational feasibility of the retrieval algorithm. Sensitivity studies are performed to demonstrate the weak residual dependence of the retrieval on the first-guess input spectrum. The mean spectral parameters of the SWM retrievals are compared with spectral parameters from collocated wave model (WAM) spectra. The time series of SWM-retrieved and WAM-derived monthly mean significant wave heights H-s in various ocean basins show good overall agreement but with a small systematic underestimation of H-s by the WAM. A decomposition of the wave spectra into wind sea and swell reveals an average 10% overprediction of the wind sea by the WAM while swell is underpredicted by 20-30%. The positive wind-sea bias exhibits no clear wave height dependence, while the negative swell bias decreases with swell wave height. This could be due to a too strong damping in the WAM at low frequencies. Detailed regional investigations point to the existence of smaller-scale phenomena, which may not be adequately reproduced by the WAM at the present resolution of the wind forcing. Finally, an intercomparison is made of the observed and modeled azimuthal cutoff length scales, and global distributions are investigated. Ratios of the observed azimuthal cutoff wavenumber to the mean azimuthal wavenumber component indicate that about 75% of the swell can be directly resolved by the SAR, while about 70% of the wind sea lies at least partially beyond the cutoff

    Use of ocean wave spectra retrieved from ERS-1 SAR wave mode data for global wave modelling

    Get PDF

    Changes to the air‐sea flux and distribution of radiocarbon in the ocean over the 21st century

    Get PDF
    We investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of radiocarbon (Δ14C) in the ocean over the 21st century under different scenarios for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 and radiocarbon changes using a 3‐D ocean carbon cycle model. Strong decreases in atmospheric Δ14C in the high‐emission scenario result in strong outgassing of 14C over 2050–2100, causing Δ14C spatial gradients in the surface ocean and vertical gradients between the surface and intermediate waters to reverse sign. Surface Δ14C in the subtropical gyres is lower than Δ14C in Pacific Deep Water and Southern Ocean surface water in 2100. In the low‐emission scenario, ocean Δ14C remains slightly higher than in 1950 and relatively constant over 2050–2100. Over the next 20 years we find decadal changes in Δ14C of −30‰ to +5‰ in the upper 2 km of the ocean, which should be detectable with continued hydrographic surveys. Our simulations can help in planning future observations, and they provide a baseline for investigating natural or anthropogenic changes in ocean circulation using ocean Δ14C observations and models

    An improved algorithm for the retrieval of ocean wave spectra from synthetic aperture radar image spectra

    Get PDF
    An earlier algorithm for retrieving two-dimensional wave spectra from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image spectra is improved by using a modified cost function and introducing an additional iteration loop in which the first-guess input spectrum is systematically updated. For this purpose a spectral partitioning scheme is applied in which the spectrum is decomposed into a finite number of distinct wave systems. At each iteration step, the individual wave systems of the partitioned nth-guess wave spectrum are adjusted to agree in mean energy, frequency, and direction with the corresponding mean values of the associated wave systems of the SAR-inverted wave spectrum. The algorithm retrieves smooth wave spectra, avoiding the discontinuities which tended to arise in the previous algorithm in the transition region near the azimuthal wavenumber cutoff of the SAR image spectrum. The azimuthal cutoff of the SAR spectrum is also reproduced more accurately. The greatest improvement of the new retrieval algorithm is obtained when the discrepancies between the initial first-guess wave spectrum and the observed SAR spectrum are large. In this case the additional updating loop for the input spectrum enables the retrieved spectrum to adjust such that the simulated SAR spectrum matches more closely the observed SAR spectrum. The overall correlation of a large set of simulated SAR spectra with the measured SAR spectra is found to be significantly higher than with the previous algorithm, indicating that the algorithm not only overcomes isolated shortcomings of the earlier algorithm but also yields retrieved wave spectra which are generally more consistent with the input SAR data. An additional practical advantage of the new algorithm is that it returns spectral partioning parameters which dan be used in SAR wave data assimilation schemes
    • 

    corecore