The role of modelling in the policy decision making process for cancer screening : Example of prostate specific antigen screening

Funding Information: This publication was made possible by Grant Number U01 CA199338 from the National Cancer Institute as part of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network, which supported the underlying development of the simulation model utilised. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Cancer Institute.Peer reviewe

Exploring the relation of active surveillance schedules and prostate cancer mortality

Background: Active surveillance (AS), where treatment is deferred until cancer progression is detected by a biopsy, is acknowledged as a way to reduce overtreatment in prostate cancer. However, a consensus on the frequency of taking biopsies while in AS is lacking. In former studies to optimize biopsy schedules, the delay in progression detection was taken as an evaluation indicator and believed to be associated with the long-term outcome, prostate cancer mortality. Nevertheless, this relation was never investigated in empirical data. Here, we use simulated data from a microsimulation model to fill this knowledge gap. Methods: In this study, the established MIcrosimulation SCreening Analysis model was extended with functionality to simulate the AS procedures. The biopsy sensitivity in the model was calibrated on the Canary Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Study (PASS) data, and four (tri-yearly, bi-yearly, PASS, and yearly) AS programs were simulated. The relation between detection delay and prostate cancer mortality was investigated by Cox models. Results: The biopsy sensitivity of progression detection was found to be 50%. The Cox models show a positive relation between a longer detection delay and a higher risk of prostate cancer death. A 2-year delay resulted in a prostate cancer death risk of 2.46%–2.69% 5 years after progression detection and a 10-year risk of 5.75%–5.91%. A 4-year delay led to an approximately 8% greater 5-year risk and an approximately 25% greater 10-year risk. Conclusion: The detection delay is confirmed as a surrogate for prostate cancer mortality. A cut-off for a “safe” detection delay could not be identified.</p

Population-based mammography screening below age 50: balancing radiation-induced vs prevented breast cancer deaths

Introduction:Exposure to ionizing radiation at mammography screening may cause breast cancer. Because the radiation risk increases with lower exposure age, advancing the lower age limit may affect the balance between screening benefits and risks. The present study explores the benefit-risk ratio of screening before age 50.Methods:The benefits of biennial mammography screening, starting at various ages between 40 and 50, and continuing up to age 74 were examined using micro-simulation. In contrast with previous studies that commonly used excess relative risk models, we assessed the radiation risks using the latest BEIR-VII excess abso

Comparative effectiveness of prostate cancer screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years followed by active surveillance

BACKGROUND: Because of the recent grade C draft recommendation by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) for prostate cancer screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years, there is a need to determine whether this could be cost-effective in a US population setting. METHODS: This study used a microsimulation model of screening and active surveillance (AS), based on data from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, for the natural history of prostate cancer and Johns Hopkins AS cohort data to inform the probabilities of referral to treatment during AS. A cohort of 10 million men, based on US life tables, was simulated. The lifetime costs and effects of screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years with different screening frequencies and AS protocols were projected, and their cost-effectiveness was determined. RESULTS: Quadrennial screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years (55, 59, 63, and 67 years) with AS for men with low-risk cancers (ie, those with a Gleason score of 6 or lower) and yearly biopsies or triennial biopsies resulted in an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of $51,918 or$69,380, respectively. Most policies in which screening was followed by immediate treatment were dominated. In most sensitivity analyses, this study found a policy with which the cost per QALY remained below $100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate-specific antigen–based prostate cancer screening in the United States between the ages of 55 and 69 years, as recommended by the USPSTF, may be cost-effective at a$100,000 threshold but only with a quadrennial screening frequency and with AS offered to all low-risk men. Cancer 2018;124:507-13

Screening for cancers with a good prognosis:The case of testicular germ cell cancer

Background: To determine, using testicular germ cell cancer screening as an example, whether screening can also be effective for cancers with a good prognosis. Methods: Based on the Dutch incidence, stage distribution, and survival and mortality data of testicular germ cell cancer, we developed a microsimulation model. This model simulates screening scenarios varying in screening age, interval, self-examination or screening by the general practitioner (GP), and screening of a defined high-risk group (cryptorchidism). For each scenario, the number of clinically and screen-detected cancers by stage, referrals, testicular germ cell cancer deaths, and life-years gained were projected. Results: Annual self-examination from age 20 to 30 years resulted in 767 cancers detected per 100,000 men followed over life-time, of which 123 (16%) by screening. In this scenario, 19.2 men died from the disease, 4.7 (20%) less than without screening, and 230 life-years were gained. Around 14,000 visits to the GP and 2080 visits to an urologist were required. This scenario resulted in the most favorable ratio between extra visits to the GP or urologist and deaths prevented (1418 and 116 respectively). Monthly screening, or screening until age 40 resulted in less favorable ratios. Self-examination by only the high-risk population prevented 1.0 death per 100,00 men in the general population. In all scenarios, 46–50 life-years were gained for each testicular germ cell cancer death prevented. Conclusion: Despite the good prognosis, self-examination at young ages for testicular germ cell cancer could be considered

The efficacy of prostate‐specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142434/1/cncr31178.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142434/2/cncr31178_am.pd

Force measurement platform for training and assessment of laparoscopic skills

Background - To improve endoscopic surgical skills, an increasing number of surgical residents practice on box or virtual-reality (VR) trainers. Current training is mainly focused on hand–eye coordination. Training methods that focus on applying the right amount of force are not yet available. Methods - The aim of this project is to develop a system to measure forces and torques during laparoscopic training tasks as well as the development of force parameters that assess tissue manipulation tasks. The force and torque measurement range of the developed force platform are 0–4 N and 1 Nm (torque), respectively. To show the potential of the developed force platform, a pilot study was conducted in which five surgeons experienced in intracorporeal suturing and five novices performed a suture task in a box trainer. Results - During the pilot study, the maximum and mean absolute nonzero force that the novice used were 4.7 N (SD 1.3 N) and 2.1 N (SD 0.6 N), respectively. With a maximum force of 2.6 N (SD 0.4 N) and mean nonzero force of 0.9 N (SD 0.3 N), the force exerted by the experts was significantly lower.Biomechanical EngineeringMechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineerin

Finding the optimal mammography screening strategy:A cost-effectiveness analysis of 920 modelled strategies

Breast cancer screening policies have been designed decades ago, but current screening strategies may not be optimal anymore. Next to that, screening capacity issues may restrict feasibility. This cost‐effectiveness study evaluates an extensive set of breast cancer screening strategies in the Netherlands. Using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis‐Breast (MISCAN‐Breast) model, the cost‐effectiveness of 920 breast cancer screening strategies with varying starting ages (40‐60), stopping ages (64‐84) and intervals (1‐4 years) were simulated. The number of quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and additional net costs (in €) per 1000 women were predicted (3.5% discounted) and incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated to compare screening scenarios. Sensitivity analyses were performed using different assumptions. In total, 26 strategies covering all four intervals were on the efficiency frontier. Using a willingness‐to‐pay threshold of €20 000/QALY gained, the biennial 40 to 76 screening strategy was optimal. However, this strategy resulted in more overdiagnoses and false positives, and required a high screening capacity. The current strategy in the Netherlands, biennial 50 to 74 years, was dominated. Triennial screening in the age range 44 to 71 (ICER 9364) or 44 to 74 (ICER 11144) resulted in slightly more QALYs gained and lower costs than the current Dutch strategy. Furthermore, these strategies were estimated to require a lower screening capacity. Findings were robust when varying attendance and effectiveness of treatment. In conclusion, switching from biennial to triennial screening while simultaneously lowering the starting age to 44 can increase benefits at lower costs and with a minor increase in harms compared to the current strategy