The Interpersonal Hot Hand Fallacy: How Similarity With Previous Winners Increases Subjective Probability of Winning

Organizers of promotional or state lotteries often feature a recent winner in their advertisements, depicted by a photograph and some personal information. We show that potential participants estimate they have higher odds of winning the next drawing when featured previous winners are similar to them (on age, gender or educational background). This effect, referred to herein as the "Interpersonal Hot Hand" fallacy, then increases their participation likelihood. It disappears when respondents are given objective information on their probability of winning-rare information in the context of real-world lotteries. We identify moderating variables

Unavailable Cake on the Menu: How Phantom Compromise Alternatives Alter Indulgence Tendencies

This study shows that compromise-but-unavailable "phantom" alternatives systematically alter indulgence tendencies. Study 1 and 2 show that such alternatives can increase indulgence by reducing anticipatory guilt and regret. Studies 3 and 4 then reverse the effect by moderating hedonistic tendencies. The results implicate latent desires (those not reflected in control/baseline shares) that phantomcompromise alternatives can leverage to alter choice

For a Deeper Understanding of the Sociality That Emanates From Virtual Communities of Consumption

This paper aims to improve our understanding of the sociality that emanates from virtual communities of consumption. We have collected life narratives, with a focus on agency in consumers' experiences of forums in a virtual community of video game players. Findings reveal the existence of different means of appropriation built on identified dimensions and leading to various knowledge projects. These projects are experienced throughout subject positions around which consumers build more or less salient identities. The roles that forums play in knowledge projects lead to four main interrelated consumption logics that are collectively embodied in different ways by social practices. [to cite]

Vipiz Is Fast, Vopoz Is Slow: Phonetic Symbolism Is the Way to Go!

We examine the effect of phonological awareness (ability to identify sounds in words) on children's product evaluations, following exposure to a phonetically manipulated brand name (e.g., Vipiz/Vopoz). We demonstrate that priming children to undertake soundbased processing of marketing stimuli will enhance phonetic symbolism effects for those with low phonological awareness

How Do Children Derive Happiness From Past Experiences? Developmental, Experimental, and Longitudinal Evidence

Across six studies with over 400 children and adolescents ages 3-17, we show that children ages 3-12 derive more happiness from material objects than from experiences. This pattern reverses by ages 16-17. We show that memory and theory of mind are necessary for sufficient comprehension of experiences, which facilitates enjoyment

The Interpersonal Hot Hand Fallacy: Endorsement of Promotional Games By Previous Winners

To advertise a promotional lottery or sweepstake, it is common to feature previous winners, with some personal information. We show that respondents estimate their odds of winning the next drawing to be higher when featured previous winners are similar to them, although the two drawings are obviously independent from each other. This effect is robust across different operational definitions of similarity, i.e. age, gender or educational background, and disappears when the number of previous winners increases. These findings extend the well-known hot hand fallacy from the intrapersonal to the interpersonal domain

LISS panel - Financial distress

This questionnaire is about how people deal with money.Suggestions for data usage: The data files are accessible via CentERdata. For more information, please use the link under Relations or www.lissdata.nl

Expropriation Risk and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Firms *

Abstract In this paper, we propose a general equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous firms and a government that is both unable to commit and relatively more impatient than firms. We find that, as predicted by theoretical papers on limited commitment, the threat of expropriation alone is enough to distort capital accumulation. Moreover, we show that the fact that the government is more impatient than firms induces additional growth dynamics by determining that distortions to capital do not completely go away once the long run stationary equilibrium has been reached. This is because the relative impatience of the government leads not only to decreases in promised utility by the firm when constraints do not bind, but also makes it very costly for a firm to increase its promised utility and capital when a constraint binds. Thus, promised utility will not increase as much as in the case where government and firms discount at the same rate, resulting in a stationary equilibrium level of capital that is less than optimal. Finally, when embedding the contracting problem between a firm and the government in a GE model with heterogeneous firms, we find that expropriation risk is capable of endogenously generating misallocation of resources across firms, with more productive firms being affected the most by the contracting frictions, thus leading to losses in aggregate output and total factor productivity in the long run stationary equilibrium. JEL Codes: L2, O1, P16 * We are very grateful to Lee Ohanian, Christian Hellwig and Mark Wright for their invaluable comments and support. We also thank Roberto Fattal-Jaef, Vaidyanathan Venkateswaran and participants of the SED 2012 Conference and the Macro Economics Proseminar at UCLA for their helpful comments. First version October 2010. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and do not reflect those of the Banque de France.